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Post by johnc on Jun 8, 2020 11:42:07 GMT
I just ran identical figures for both cars for comparison purposes but often the PCP can be had on a lower interest rate than the HP and may even have a financial contribution from the manufacturer's finance company (£10K on my M5!!).
In these special circumstances the PCP can actually work out cheaper in interest and you get the added benefit of having a guarantee on the future value, which in today's uncertain times may be worth a considerable amount.
We took my wife's X4 on PCP because of the uncertainty about future diesel values and it looks as though we will have a GFV of about £2K to £3K more than we would get as a trade in, so that's another saving.
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Post by racingteatray on Jun 8, 2020 11:42:14 GMT
If I had a 20 mile drive to work every day on nice roads, or did a lot of business travel by car as Martin does, I could understand and justify spending more.
But my commuting options are tube or bike, and I very rarely drive on business (maybe 2-3 times a year), so my car is literally just used at weekends (and even then not much given we live in central London) and for holidays, so at that point £400 is already quite an indulgence.
Certainly my wife sees it as a massive indulgence and about £400 was the most I could get past her innate fiscal prudence.
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Post by ChrisM on Jun 8, 2020 11:50:58 GMT
^
Wouldn't you almost do better to have no car and rent one when you need one, and just keep the wife's car for weekend use (apart from when going away)?
This probably depends on having a decent rental place nearby
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Post by chipbutty on Jun 8, 2020 11:59:08 GMT
The last time I looked, a base 911 was quoted on the configurator finance calculator at £892 a month with 10k deposit (4 years, 10k PA deal). Porsche have taken their finance calc off line now, so on the basis of taking the numbers as read and ignoring any future residuals (just give it back). This is what I've found with 10 minutes of googling. So it's basically another £250 a month to run a brand new 911 vs an old one without an OPC warranty PCP on a 911 worth £56k (2013 car I think). 4 years, 10k deposit, 10k per annum)  Private lease deal on a brand new 992 coupe. 4 years, £12k deposit, 10k per annum)  If the underwritten residual values have tanked in the last 9 months to the extent that it's now £1500 to get into a new 911 on a 4 year, 10k mile deal, then I certainly would not factor any " it will be worth £xxx all day long " thinking into the purchase maths |
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Post by Big Blue on Jun 8, 2020 12:41:57 GMT
Certainly my wife sees it as a massive indulgence and about £400 was the most I could get past her innate fiscal prudence. This. I bought the Gorilla outright as I was on a project paying me too much so I could justify it (to myself, anyway) but now struggle to consider changing as it makes no sense. Even if it threw me a £10k bill I would just pay it as opposed to changing because much as I look at cars the annual mileage on the Gorilla means we'd be better off running just the Mini and hiring a car whenever we genuinely needed a larger one. I just like cars. |
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Post by PetrolEd on Jun 8, 2020 12:52:27 GMT
Blimey thats apples and oranges isn't it. The only way your paying 56K for a 2013 bogo 991 is to by it from an OPC, which will have all the warranty and be as good as new but even then you'd be mad to pay that much when it can only be worth 40K and 45k at a decent indy.
Plus your example is at 11.5% APR, when you can get 5.9, a different deposit, no options on the 992 etc.
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Post by racingteatray on Jun 8, 2020 13:34:11 GMT
^ Wouldn't you almost do better to have no car and rent one when you need one, and just keep the wife's car for weekend use (apart from when going away)? This probably depends on having a decent rental place nearby My instinctive answer is that there's being sensible and then there's being unnecessarily dull! As Jeff says "I just like cars". More pertinently, renting anything even half-decent for the weekend isn't likely to cost less than £2-300, and 95% of rental cars are dull as ditchwater, even the more expensive ones. Then factor in the point that, so far in the three and a half years we've had it, our 440i has crossed the Channel six times (three times to Italy, twice to France and once to Belgium) and also been to both Scotland and Wales. So we do like our driving holidays and don't travel light (particularly when going to Italy and back laden with Christmas presents and skiing clobber) To be honest, size- and style-wise the 4-series Gran Coupe has proved nigh-on ideal for us. An M4 version would have been close to perfect. As I've commented before, we only keep the Fiat because we have the space and in general it costs so very little to own and run (probably in total not much more per year (excluding fuel) than a month's PCP on the BMW) plus there are times when having two cars available is actually handy. |
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Post by chipbutty on Jun 8, 2020 14:56:24 GMT
Ideally I would have found a car for bang on £50k, but there weren't any on Autotrader that would quote a PCP in the advert. So I've shown the closest I could find on ten minutes searching that still proves it isn't much more to obtain a brand new one versus using finance on an old one.
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Post by garry on Jun 8, 2020 16:07:07 GMT
Ideally I would have found a car for bang on £50k, but there weren't any on Autotrader that would quote a PCP in the advert. So I've shown the closest I could find on ten minutes searching that still proves it isn't much more to obtain a brand new one versus using finance on an old one. I’ve got a bogo 2013 991 and I’d happily accept £56k! Seriously, I’m not sure what it would be at an OPC, but I’d be amazed if it started with a 5. I get the general point though that the figures might be closer than you’d expect. |
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Post by Martin on Jun 8, 2020 16:28:26 GMT
Ideally I would have found a car for bang on £50k, but there weren't any on Autotrader that would quote a PCP in the advert. So I've shown the closest I could find on ten minutes searching that still proves it isn't much more to obtain a brand new one versus using finance on an old one. I’ve got a bogo 2013 991 and I’d happily accept £56k! Seriously, I’m not sure what it would be at an OPC, but I’d be amazed if it started with a 5. I get the general point though that the figures might be closer than you’d expect. The cheapest 991 at an OPC is a Sep 2012 with PDK, paddles, upgraded wheels and dimming mirrors which has done 34k miles and they want £47,990. Increasing the budget to just under £52k gets you a December 2012 Carrera S with Sport Chrono, Sports Exhaust, cruise, heated seats, Bose and a couple of other bits. |
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Post by garry on Jun 8, 2020 17:14:39 GMT
I’ve got a bogo 2013 991 and I’d happily accept £56k! Seriously, I’m not sure what it would be at an OPC, but I’d be amazed if it started with a 5. I get the general point though that the figures might be closer than you’d expect. The cheapest 991 at an OPC is a Sep 2012 with PDK, paddles, upgraded wheels and dimming mirrors which has done 34k miles and they want £47,990. Increasing the budget to just under £52k gets you a December 2012 Carrera S with Sport Chrono, Sports Exhaust, cruise, heated seats, Bose and a couple of other bits. Maybe I’m underestimating the price of mine - it’s a 2013 car with 44k miles, pano roof, sports exhaust, Bose, upgraded wheels. It’s a manual too (not sure what it does to the value). I only paid £53k three years ago from an opc. It was a hard negotiation and I know I got a good deal, but maybe it’s held on to more value than I expected |
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Post by johnc on Jun 9, 2020 6:53:05 GMT
but maybe it’s held on to more value than I expected You have to factor in the margin any Porsche dealer would want. I have been told that Glasgow Porsche look to offer about £10K less than they eventually anticipate retailing the car for. However all cars get a respray on the front end and come with a warranty so that eats into the margin a small bit! |
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Post by garry on Jun 9, 2020 7:04:16 GMT
but maybe it’s held on to more value than I expected You have to factor in the margin any Porsche dealer would want. I have been told that Glasgow Porsche look to offer about £10K less than they eventually anticipate retailing the car for. However all cars get a respray on the front end and come with a warranty so that eats into the margin a small bit! That makes sense. In reality I think I’d be at £40k trade, low £40k’s as a private sale and an opc would market at near £50k. To an earlier point, I can’t see £50k being good value for my car. |
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Post by Martin on Jun 9, 2020 7:58:53 GMT
You have to factor in the margin any Porsche dealer would want. I have been told that Glasgow Porsche look to offer about £10K less than they eventually anticipate retailing the car for. However all cars get a respray on the front end and come with a warranty so that eats into the margin a small bit! That makes sense. In reality I think I’d be at £40k trade, low £40k’s as a private sale and an opc would market at near £50k. To an earlier point, I can’t see £50k being good value for my car. Around £300 a month in depreciation is very good, you can man maths that down a bit as well as £2k worth of warranty was included in the purchase price! Can't believe you didn't just buy a new one when it wouldn't have cost you any more.....  |
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Post by chipbutty on Jun 10, 2020 18:51:00 GMT
So here are the maths - which you are free to pick over at your leisure.  Assumptions:The two second hand cars have been plucked from AT this afternoon - the indy car is the cheapest 991 under 45k miles and the OPC car is the cheapest 991 they've got. Mileage is 45k and 38k respectively. I couldn't get a PCP quote on either - so I've gone full HP with a £10k deposit I cannot get hold of any base 992 PCP quotes - but I have two from Aug/Sept 2019. - Base car over 48 months = £10k deposit and £900 a month - S with 10k options (£102k list) over 48 months = £15k deposit and £892 a month (source Pistonheads) I am fairly confident in the coming months, those deals will come back. But I have assumed there is no equity in the car at the end of PCP term Both second hand cars will be 12 years old with 70k plus miles and no warranty at the end of term - if you want to argue they will be worth more than 15k trade, then you need to uplift my assumption of zero equity by the same amount. Running costs is tricky - but no one spends £40k on a car only to scrimp on running costs, so I expect suspension work and other stuff, plus big services and potential for some huge unplanned bills. So - as the numbers show, over 4 years there is next to fuck all difference in the grand scheme between the cheap used car and a brand new one. That extra to swish around in the automotive second coming that is the 992 (allegedly) vs a much slower 8 year old car that could mess it's trousers at any moment is so worth it. |
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Post by garry on Jun 10, 2020 18:57:10 GMT
So here are the maths - which you are free to pick over at your leisure. Assumptions:The two second hand cars have been plucked from AT this afternoon - the indy car is the cheapest 991 under 45k miles and the OPC car is the cheapest 991 they've got. Mileage is 45k and 38k respectively. I couldn't get a PCP quote on either - so I've gone full HP with a £10k deposit I cannot get hold of any base 992 PCP quotes - but I have two from Aug/Sept 2019. - Base car over 48 months = £10k deposit and £900 a month - S with 10k options (£102k list) over 48 months = £15k deposit and £892 a month (source Pistonheads) I am fairly confident in the coming months, those deals will come back. But I have assumed there is no equity in the car at the end of PCP term Both second hand cars will be 12 years old with 70k plus miles and no warranty at the end of term - if you want to argue they will be worth more than 15k trade, then you need to uplift my assumption of zero equity by the same amount. Running costs is tricky - but no one spends £40k on a car only to scrimp on running costs, so I expect suspension work and other stuff, plus big services and potential for some huge unplanned bills. So - as the numbers show, over 4 years there is next to fuck all difference in the grand scheme between the cheap used car and a brand new one. That extra to swish around in the automotive second coming that is the 992 (allegedly) vs a much slower 8 year old car that could mess it's trousers at any moment is so worth it. That’s really interesting. Would you also add a warranty cost on to both used cars too? |
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Post by PetrolEd on Jun 10, 2020 19:42:08 GMT
So here are the maths - which you are free to pick over at your leisure. Assumptions:The two second hand cars have been plucked from AT this afternoon - the indy car is the cheapest 991 under 45k miles and the OPC car is the cheapest 991 they've got. Mileage is 45k and 38k respectively. I couldn't get a PCP quote on either - so I've gone full HP with a £10k deposit I cannot get hold of any base 992 PCP quotes - but I have two from Aug/Sept 2019. - Base car over 48 months = £10k deposit and £900 a month - S with 10k options (£102k list) over 48 months = £15k deposit and £892 a month (source Pistonheads) I am fairly confident in the coming months, those deals will come back. But I have assumed there is no equity in the car at the end of PCP term Both second hand cars will be 12 years old with 70k plus miles and no warranty at the end of term - if you want to argue they will be worth more than 15k trade, then you need to uplift my assumption of zero equity by the same amount. Running costs is tricky - but no one spends £40k on a car only to scrimp on running costs, so I expect suspension work and other stuff, plus big services and potential for some huge unplanned bills. So - as the numbers show, over 4 years there is next to fuck all difference in the grand scheme between the cheap used car and a brand new one. That extra to swish around in the automotive second coming that is the 992 (allegedly) vs a much slower 8 year old car that could mess it's trousers at any moment is so worth it. Your assumptions are well out in my experience |
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Post by chipbutty on Jun 10, 2020 20:18:13 GMT
Have you run an 8 year old 911 for 4 years and 32k miles ?
What assumptions are " well out " ?
I've assumed the OPC car is covered for 2 years and is in great condition, so you wouldn't have many out of service expenses for the first two years. Years 3 and 4 is without warranty. Not sure if Porsche would sell you their warranty in years 11 and 12.
Of course, you can play tunes with this, you might luck out and find an 8 year old 991 that's just had a suspension refresh and new disks and pads, or you might get unlucky and end up with the automotive equivalent of trigger's broom that also needs an engine or gearbox rebuild. I've tried to take the middle ground without taking the piss.
If you are Ed China type, you might be able to do this stuff yourself - most of us though are at the mercy of a great specialist. However, as I said at the start, you won't be cutting corners on something that you are paying £800 a month for, so it's going to be pricey keeping one tip top.
I don't have the trouser furniture to risk an purchase from a non specialist independent - so the real comparator for me would be OPC used vs new.
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Post by garry on Jun 11, 2020 5:31:43 GMT
Have you run an 8 year old 911 for 4 years and 32k miles ? What assumptions are " well out " ? I've assumed the OPC car is covered for 2 years and is in great condition, so you wouldn't have many out of service expenses for the first two years. Years 3 and 4 is without warranty. Not sure if Porsche would sell you their warranty in years 11 and 12. Of course, you can play tunes with this, you might luck out and find an 8 year old 991 that's just had a suspension refresh and new disks and pads, or you might get unlucky and end up with the automotive equivalent of trigger's broom that also needs an engine or gearbox rebuild. I've tried to take the middle ground without taking the piss. If you are Ed China type, you might be able to do this stuff yourself - most of us though are at the mercy of a great specialist. However, as I said at the start, you won't be cutting corners on something that you are paying £800 a month for, so it's going to be pricey keeping one tip top. I don't have the trouser furniture to risk an purchase from a non specialist independent - so the real comparator for me would be OPC used vs new. This has got me thinking. The difference in cost over the next few years of new vs old certainly looks close when all the additional benefits of new are added in. I’m wondering whether I’m at some ‘optimal’ point in terms of the value of my car - I’ve ran the 991 for three years, it’s cost me circa £12k in deprecation, one set of tyres and one service ( I got the first service included in the deal). I know that’s outstanding value, but this thread is making me wonder if it’s time to change. |
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Post by franki68 on Jun 11, 2020 7:50:53 GMT
You can buy a Porsche warranty for any model up to 14 years old or 125000 miles I believe .
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Post by racingteatray on Jun 11, 2020 8:50:21 GMT
So here are the maths - which you are free to pick over at your leisure. Assumptions:The two second hand cars have been plucked from AT this afternoon - the indy car is the cheapest 991 under 45k miles and the OPC car is the cheapest 991 they've got. Mileage is 45k and 38k respectively. I couldn't get a PCP quote on either - so I've gone full HP with a £10k deposit I cannot get hold of any base 992 PCP quotes - but I have two from Aug/Sept 2019. - Base car over 48 months = £10k deposit and £900 a month - S with 10k options (£102k list) over 48 months = £15k deposit and £892 a month (source Pistonheads) I am fairly confident in the coming months, those deals will come back. But I have assumed there is no equity in the car at the end of PCP term Both second hand cars will be 12 years old with 70k plus miles and no warranty at the end of term - if you want to argue they will be worth more than 15k trade, then you need to uplift my assumption of zero equity by the same amount. Running costs is tricky - but no one spends £40k on a car only to scrimp on running costs, so I expect suspension work and other stuff, plus big services and potential for some huge unplanned bills. So - as the numbers show, over 4 years there is next to fuck all difference in the grand scheme between the cheap used car and a brand new one. That extra to swish around in the automotive second coming that is the 992 (allegedly) vs a much slower 8 year old car that could mess it's trousers at any moment is so worth it. That's interesting, thanks. Sadly, no way I could ever justify spanking nearly £60k to drive a Porsche for four years. I wonder how many of us really could. |
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Post by garry on Jun 11, 2020 9:14:34 GMT
So here are the maths - which you are free to pick over at your leisure. Assumptions:The two second hand cars have been plucked from AT this afternoon - the indy car is the cheapest 991 under 45k miles and the OPC car is the cheapest 991 they've got. Mileage is 45k and 38k respectively. I couldn't get a PCP quote on either - so I've gone full HP with a £10k deposit I cannot get hold of any base 992 PCP quotes - but I have two from Aug/Sept 2019. - Base car over 48 months = £10k deposit and £900 a month - S with 10k options (£102k list) over 48 months = £15k deposit and £892 a month (source Pistonheads) I am fairly confident in the coming months, those deals will come back. But I have assumed there is no equity in the car at the end of PCP term Both second hand cars will be 12 years old with 70k plus miles and no warranty at the end of term - if you want to argue they will be worth more than 15k trade, then you need to uplift my assumption of zero equity by the same amount. Running costs is tricky - but no one spends £40k on a car only to scrimp on running costs, so I expect suspension work and other stuff, plus big services and potential for some huge unplanned bills. So - as the numbers show, over 4 years there is next to fuck all difference in the grand scheme between the cheap used car and a brand new one. That extra to swish around in the automotive second coming that is the 992 (allegedly) vs a much slower 8 year old car that could mess it's trousers at any moment is so worth it. That's interesting, thanks. Sadly, no way I could ever justify spanking nearly £60k to drive a Porsche for four years. I wonder how many of us really could. My thinking is if I bought new, planned to keep it for about 7 years (age of my car now) I should be looking at at value of mid to high £40’s at that point, that means about £40k of depreciation over 7 years or £470 per month. The alternative is to keep the 991, but I think I’d be taking 25 - 30k depreciation over the same period on that and running an old car. Appreciate any feedback on my figures/assumptions |
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Post by Martin on Jun 11, 2020 9:16:21 GMT
I've had a look on a finance site I use for research purposes and the new car example Pete has given is very close, based on an APR of 5.7%, 8k miles a year, 48 months and a GFV of £42k. If you can fund it in a better/cheaper way, the cost would come down a lot, as the total interest paid in the example I looked as is over £13,000.
So for Garry, £40k trade in (min) + £25k loan + £18k cash would be a total cost of £42.5k or £885 a month. That assumes it's worth £42k at 4 years old, which is broadly what his is worth at 7 years old.
If the figures are broadly the same in 4-5 years when the practicality issue goes away, I'd one as a second car.
The biggest problem would be keeping the price to £83k!
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Post by Big Blue on Jun 11, 2020 9:22:23 GMT
Nice accounting Chip.
When you put it like that and then use the model for a run of the mill car (as opposed to a 911) then to the average car owner there's no excuse for buying a used car unless it's deep in the single figure '000s. The whole warranty issue itself is a deal maker (as racing will probably acknowledge) as it removes unexpected big costs. Most households run a monthly budget so a fixed cost on the car is just another line item.
Couple of things: £900 a month is affordable but unjustifiable to lots of folks until all other wants and needs are taken care of; If you were cashing in that 4yo 911 at the end of the PCP for another one it's very likely you'd get the £10k deposit shoved back in to maintain you as a customer; the savings on the service costs should be put aside to bump the deposit for the follow on car (the moral of which is we should all have started on this road long ago because we'd now be in a new 911 every 3-4 years for about £550 a month).
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Post by PetrolEd on Jun 11, 2020 9:35:46 GMT
Have you run an 8 year old 911 for 4 years and 32k miles ? What assumptions are " well out " ? Very close to that, but it was 15 years old for 6 years and 35,000 miles, and it cost me £11,000 over that time and it was the Porsche that threw up problems that no one had seen before. If I was running a 991 I wouldn't expect much more then 2k per year. 2 Year servicing don't forget and 991's typically aren't throwing up big bills. I'm not bored enough to resort to a spreadsheet to show my costings but I'll give you this example The last finance deal I did on a 992 was back in Jan, I've tweaked the quote as that was an S at £107K They are not 83k, yes you can buy one for 83 but doubt anyone has. Its 90k at least with the "essentials" so I go with it. 992 Cost: £90,000 (I havent added any new car tax or over 40K tax as can't remember the costs)
Deposit £10000 Balance to Finance £80000
Balloon: £45,000 (HP WITH BALLOON NOT PCP, therefore can increase to 50%)
48 x £1285.00
Rate: 6.28%APRA cracking 2014 991 has just gone through the Collecting cars site at £37,000 which had 45,000 miles on the clock. with 6% buyers premium thats 39K. Cheap car but thats the current value of these cars. If I use your example of the car at Gravelwood Cost £42,000
Deposit: £10000
Balance to finance: £32,000
Balloon: £18,900 (45% Balloon, again HP with Balloon not PCP)
48 x £638.46
Rate: 6.7%APR
The rest of the costs are speculative and so is what the cars will be worth.
Personally I think you'll see best case 10K back on the new car and 6K on the used
Discount that off the monthly payments for the 992 then £51,680
Discount off the monthly payments of the used car £24,646
Even more guessing is the maintenance so lets guess
Maintenance on the 991 8K over the term
Maintenance on the new car 4K over the term
Therefore total cost £55,680 vs £32646 or £1160 vs £680.12
Weather you find the extra money per month justifiable for the newer car is up to you, I wouldn't but then I'm a skint innit.
What it highlights is the beauty of man maths to justify our expenditure in our hobbies.
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Post by Martin on Jun 11, 2020 9:51:23 GMT
I like Petes man maths much more than yours Ed! |
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Post by PetrolEd on Jun 11, 2020 10:03:22 GMT
I like Petes man maths much more than yours Ed! Funnily enough i was talking to someone looking to but a 991.2 T this morning for 68K and asked me if it was a good time to buy. I should have pointed him in the direction of this thread and asked him to choose if he wanted to go down the Ed or Pete finance route. |
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