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Post by alf on Mar 16, 2018 9:37:24 GMT
I'm surprised there is nothing about this on here (unless it's called something random and I've missed it!). Just what do the Russians have to do before anyone seems to give a crap? Just in the last few years they have assassinated an ex spy using a radioactive substance they left smears of all over London (and the BA flight home). They've annexed one part of another country and sponsored a war (using their own troops directly in combat) in another. They have murdered a good deal of businessmen and politicians that were not friends of the regime, and shot down an international airliner full of families going on holiday - hundreds of them. Now they have used a banned WMD in the UK in a way that could have led to multiple deaths besides the targets. They have propped up the Syrian regime, repeatedly deliberately targetting civilians and hospitals and standing by when the Syrian government used WMD there (which I still think the West should have responded tom even just in a symbolic way, but Ed Miiband stopped that one). They have thousands of people whose entire job is writing anti-establishment posts on foreign websites pretending to be citizens of that country, and have tried to influence the US Election (which may well have been successful) and Brexit (which appears to have been less so). They regularly carry out cyber attacks on western companies and organisations. And that's just some of the stuff done outside Russia by the Russian state itself, not the other hackers etc they allow to operate there.
They don't seem to have the slightest interest in deception, since the radioactive element is virtually impossible to get hold of (being a by product of nuclear weapons production) and the nerve agent used is one developed only in Russia and one which is not thought to have got into anyone else's hands, not one of the many that a decent chemist could have a stab at themselves. I know some people - including our illustrious leader of the opposition - are trying to make out its a conspiracy to make them look guilty, and are trying to link this with other (anti-Putin) Russians funding other political parties, but given how Putin acts, and the way it is always his enemies that get it, I don't buy that for a second.
I have deep reservations about Putin, that come from being a student of history for some time, he is the closest credible Hitler-like politician I can recall. A senior UK financier writing last weekend (who's laywer, Magnitsky, was beaten to death by Putin's regime giving name to the "Magnitsky Act" now being used against Russian leaders) said that the Russian government are already fighting World War 3, we just don't realise it yet. I think that is OTT but we are closer to facing a major war than we have been for some time, and European countries in particular need to face up to defence spending commitments and reduce their exposure to Russian energy and so on. All we can really do with Putin is isolate him and ride it out in the hope someone with fewer international goals follows him.
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Post by Tim on Mar 16, 2018 9:55:23 GMT
I think your second last sentence perfectly sums up the reason that nothing much has been done - we would have to spend a shitload more on defence.
Can you really see the wider public, that has undergone a decade of austerity, agreeing to pouring £10s of Billions into an organisation that appears to have little concept of efficiency or of meeting targets (I'm sure they're good at actually hitting targets!).
there's also the idea that it is happening 'over there'. I have the feeling that people are far more focused on their own immediate lives than the wider world than they were 20 or 30 years ago.
Finally, how do you work out that Ed Milipede was solely responsible for stopping any response to the Syrian Government using WMDs?
He was the leader of a minority opposition, the Government of the day failed to push any action through so shouldn't the fault lay initially at their door - presumably David Cameron and Nick Clegg?
EDIT In addition don't forget that any serious action against Russia would probably have huge implications for, in particular, the London property market and while I in the far North don't give a shit about it those people in Westminster who continually fail to consider the wider UK are probably obsessed with it and their own (and their friends) wealth and the impact a change in property prices could have. Doing the right thing follows a distant second to greed. |
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Post by racingteatray on Mar 16, 2018 12:35:58 GMT
I fully share many of your reservations on Putin and the Kremlin's motivations and goals. However, Corbyn had one thing right in my view which was to enquire about how May had got from "either Russia lost control of its stocks of a deadly nerve agent or it was responsible" to "Russia is responsible".
Yes, Novichuk is a Soviet-era nerve agent. However, if you drill down even a little (and I don't think this is fake news), it appears that Nukus, the chemical research institute apparently responsible for inventing and manufacturing Novichuk, is located in what, upon the collapse of the USSR, became the newly independent Uzbekistan. And at the start of the 1990s, it seems the Uzbek government invited the US to help them clean up and run the site.
That of course does not necessarily mean anything. But it does go to show that, as ever in life, nothing is quite as cut-and-dried as it may seem or be presented to be.
I still think the Kremlin had means, method and motive, plus the sheer front and nastiness to do it. But can I be sure of that beyond all reasonable doubt at this stage? No.
And yes, the Kremlin absolutely takes advantage of such doubts and there is risk that a cautious approach makes us their "useful idiots". But there are also serious geo-political risks the other way as well.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2018 13:03:29 GMT
I believe that Putin is every bit as paranoid as Hitler ever was, whether he allows the quackery of dubious doctors to treat his imagined ill's is doubtful. Considering that Putin was a highly successful KGB operative as were most of his predecessors were yet with links to organised crime, which also has links to ex KGB people. He has a distinct advantage in what is called asymmetric warfare other world leaders do not have, he was trained for it.
So much of what nations do comes down to reaction to the actions of other nations but Putin is aware of the military and financial disparity Russia and the CCCP face so he is active rather than reactive and uses the ensuing instability to his advantage. Just as a certain septic does. So, nothing new in paradise.
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Post by grampa on Mar 16, 2018 13:36:12 GMT
I think your second last sentence perfectly sums up the reason that nothing much has been done. Nail on the head IMO |
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Post by johnc on Mar 16, 2018 13:41:36 GMT
Just Google the word Maskirovka and it gives a lot of clues to why, apparently, Russian troops were not in the Crimean peninsula or why they didn't shoot down an airliner and why they never do anything wrong - it is all someone else's fault.
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Post by alf on Mar 16, 2018 14:09:21 GMT
From Wikipedia:
A Novichok agent was reportedly used in 1995 to poison Russian banker Ivan Kivelidi, the head of the Russian Business Round Table, and Zara Ismailova, his secretary.[39][40][41] Vladimir Khutsishvili, a former business partner of the banker, was subsequently convicted for the killings.[39][42][43] The murder became "one of the first in the series of poisonings organized by Russia's security services", according to Yuri Felshtinsky and Vladimir Pribylovsky.
The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs analyzed the substance and announced that it was a phosphorus-based nerve agent "whose formula was strictly classified".[44] According to Nesterov, the administrative head of Shikhany, he did not know of "a single case of such poison being sold illegally" and noted that the poison "is used by professional spies".
Shikhany is the plant in Russia that made this agent, and the head of it quoted above said this was the only place ever to make it, it was not made outside Russia, that is more Russian disinformation.
Like I said, they want this to be seen as being done by them, even as they offically deny it. They could easily have used British-developed VX (like the North Koreans did recently) or one of the many easier to make agents. Putin is sending a very clear message to Russians at home and abroad, that the rule of law does not apply to him. It has to bring into question the various other anti-Putin Russian expats that have died of heart attacks and so on in the UK in recent years, some quite young and fit...
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Post by Tim on Mar 16, 2018 14:33:08 GMT
I don't think you can just focus on Putin, he's surely just a puppet of whatever wealthy people are behind him. I mean, it all has to come down to money, right?
So presumably the best solution to this is economic sanctions targeted against whoever those people are.
Putin on his own isn't strong enough to do what he's doing and it has to be a reasonable assumption that whenever his time is over someone else will be put in place to continue the status quo.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Mar 16, 2018 16:04:49 GMT
I don't think you can just focus on Putin, he's surely just a puppet of whatever wealthy people are behind him. I mean, it all has to come down to money, right? So presumably the best solution to this is economic sanctions targeted against whoever those people are. Putin on his own isn't strong enough to do what he's doing and it has to be a reasonable assumption that whenever his time is over someone else will be put in place to continue the status quo. Putin is reckoned to be one of the wealthiest individuals on the planet with a net worth estimated as some $200 billion. I'm not sure anybody is wealthy enough to pull his strings. The Russian nerve agent used is kept in highly secure storage and it is extremely unlikely that any of it has got into third party hands. It really is one of those cases that if it looks, walks and quacks like a duck.... We're in a cold war with Russia, they know it, we need to accept it and reinforce ourselves accordingly - and none of this crap that we're one of the few countries that spend 2% of GDP on defence - we fiddled the figures to include pension payments in that figure. Much as I value the contribution of retired service people they're not going to be able to defend us like fighter planes and ship. |
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Post by Tim on Mar 16, 2018 16:57:49 GMT
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Post by racingteatray on Mar 16, 2018 18:27:17 GMT
From Wikipedia: A Novichok agent was reportedly used in 1995 to poison Russian banker Ivan Kivelidi, the head of the Russian Business Round Table, and Zara Ismailova, his secretary.[39][40][41] Vladimir Khutsishvili, a former business partner of the banker, was subsequently convicted for the killings.[39][42][43] The murder became "one of the first in the series of poisonings organized by Russia's security services", according to Yuri Felshtinsky and Vladimir Pribylovsky.
The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs analyzed the substance and announced that it was a phosphorus-based nerve agent "whose formula was strictly classified".[44] According to Nesterov, the administrative head of Shikhany, he did not know of "a single case of such poison being sold illegally" and noted that the poison "is used by professional spies".
Shikhany is the plant in Russia that made this agent, and the head of it quoted above said this was the only place ever to make it, it was not made outside Russia, that is more Russian disinformation. All of which may be true. Or it may not. Because we are swimming in waters where disinformation is rife. Russian internal affairs are notoriously opaque and I do not think anyone can definitely state what did and did not happen in the days after the dissolution of the USSR.
See this NY Times article from 1999 about Nukus and Novichuk:
www.nytimes.com/1999/05/25/world/us-and-uzbeks-agree-on-chemical-arms-plant-cleanup.html
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2018 19:12:35 GMT
Disinformation everywhere, worse than a kindergarden.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Mar 17, 2018 0:32:15 GMT
Anyone who thinks this wasn’t the Russian state sending a message needs to go away and give their heads a wobble.
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Post by Alex on Mar 17, 2018 9:09:41 GMT
I don't think you can just focus on Putin, he's surely just a puppet of whatever wealthy people are behind him. I mean, it all has to come down to money, right? So presumably the best solution to this is economic sanctions targeted against whoever those people are. Putin on his own isn't strong enough to do what he's doing and it has to be a reasonable assumption that whenever his time is over someone else will be put in place to continue the status quo. Putin is reckoned to be one of the wealthiest individuals on the planet with a net worth estimated as some $200 billion. I'm not sure anybody is wealthy enough to pull his strings. The Russian nerve agent used is kept in highly secure storage and it is extremely unlikely that any of it has got into third party hands. It really is one of those cases that if it looks, walks and quacks like a duck.... We're in a cold war with Russia, they know it, we need to accept it and reinforce ourselves accordingly - and none of this crap that we're one of the few countries that spend 2% of GDP on defence - we fiddled the figures to include pension payments in that figure. Much as I value the contribution of retired service people they're not going to be able to defend us like fighter planes and ship. You clearly haven’t watched enough episodes of Dad’s Army Bob! But you you are right in that defence spending, not just by us, but by all western nations needs to increase if we are to be able to hold off a Russian invasion should it ever happen (not that I’m expecting it to be in any way imminent). The trouble is that for both European and American people, war isn’t something that happens to them these days and so asking them for more money to fund the military is one hell of a hard sell. And even if the money was suddenly there, we don’t necessarily have the means to use it that quickly.Europe especially has been living in peace for over 70 years since the end of WW2 so it’s not as if there’s a load of munitions factories lying around waiting to be got up and running. Couple that to a generation of 18 years olds who are much less inclined to step up and fight for king and country and you are unlikely to be able to build an army at any speed either. But assuming we did do all that and doubled the availability of tanks, fighter jets and battleships to NATO along with triple the current troop level, it would only be used by the Russian regime as yet more proof of the west poking the bear. What at least does seem clear is that Putin is slowly being left out in the cold by Western leaders who have turned against him. He’s long since not been welcomed to the G8 gatherings and now Trump, Macron, May and Merkel appear to be standing together to condemn his actions. But, truthfully, I think it’s what he wants. It bolsters his internal propaganda that the West is anti-Russian and this attack on British soil demonstrates that, in election year, he’s the one who is strong enough to stand up to the Western provocation and do something about Russia’s enemies. He knows FIFA won’t dare take away his World Cup too and the various qualified national football teams are all going to turn up. I suppose at least one positive about half of Mayfair being owned by Russian money is that he won’t be too quick to drop a nuke on Knightsbridge. |
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Post by racingteatray on Mar 17, 2018 9:24:23 GMT
Anyone who thinks this wasn’t the Russian state sending a message needs to go away and give their heads a wobble. Apart from Jeremy Corbyn, I am not sure there are many people who think it was not the Kremlin. But I am concerned about a lack of political sophistication in our government’s response which the Kremlin is expert at exploiting and whether it ends up worsening a bad situation. There’s a brilliant quote about dealing with Russia from an former British ambassador in the FT: “never engage in a pissing match with a skunk: he possesses important natural advantages”. And apart from being amusing, I think it is also pertinent advice. A hard-hitting and effective response is required. I will be very (pleasantly) surprised if we see one. |
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Post by johnc on Mar 17, 2018 9:45:00 GMT
The West have scored so many own goals over the last 25 years that it is a wonder we are still in the game at all. I am hoping that this might be a bit of a wake up call which will prevent Chinese and Russian money buying up our companies, ideas and assets - once they own us we are stuffed.
There has been a massive loss of intellectual property, technology and other secrets which should never have been allowed to leave our shores or the shores of any other western country. These are now in the hands of those who potentially don't care much for our way of life or our wellbeing. There are many countries where foreigners aren't allowed to buy property, companies or assets unless they are resident for at least 10 years and only then after vetting - we just roll over and let them buy what they want. It's no wonder that they believe they can do what they want on our soil.
We should be bolstering our defensive capabilities in a covert way using technology and guile. When you look at great military victories, they are nearly always won using something that the enemy were not expecting or something totally new - we need to get the inventive minds working. Maybe there needs to be a foreign owner wealth tax which can be diverted to fund some of this R&D. |
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Post by racingteatray on Mar 17, 2018 9:56:54 GMT
Indeed.
A core part of the problem seems to be that successive UK govts responded to the monetary shortfall resulting from the collapse of British industry in the 70s and 80s by looking to attract as much foreign money as possible with little regard to where it came from or the longer term consequences. That was always going to bite us one day but Brexit has cast a blinding floodlight on the problem.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2018 11:12:24 GMT
Much like a certain French company being allowed into our power supply system. Personally, I believe utilities should be in public ownership albeit, more efficient than of old.
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Post by Tim on Mar 19, 2018 10:48:55 GMT
The current trend (probably been going on for quite a while) that worries me is the number of companies bought out by equity firms.
In the short term the ownership might be 'Western' but once they've plundered it/turn it around in the usual 5 years it'll get sold on to god knows who.
You just have to look at PFI contracts, for example, to see that some taken out 10 years ago are on their 3rd or 4th owner.
Same for things like the HMRC property that was flogged off years ago and leased back.
It may be owned by a BVI company but who owns that?
Etc, etc.
Look at the current GKN takeover attempt by Melrose, the latter are UK based 'turnaround specialists' but once they've done that they'll sell the core business for a profit to the highest bidder and you know they really won't give a shit if its a Chinese or Russian buyer so long as the management can get their multi-million £ bonus.
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Post by PG on Mar 19, 2018 13:23:48 GMT
The West have scored so many own goals over the last 25 years that it is a wonder we are still in the game at all. I am hoping that this might be a bit of a wake up call which will prevent Chinese and Russian money buying up our companies, ideas and assets - once they own us we are stuffed.
There has been a massive loss of intellectual property, technology and other secrets which should never have been allowed to leave our shores or the shores of any other western country. These are now in the hands of those who potentially don't care much for our way of life or our wellbeing. There are many countries where foreigners aren't allowed to buy property, companies or assets unless they are resident for at least 10 years and only then after vetting - we just roll over and let them buy what they want. It's no wonder that they believe they can do what they want on our soil.
We should be bolstering our defensive capabilities in a covert way using technology and guile. When you look at great military victories, they are nearly always won using something that the enemy were not expecting or something totally new - we need to get the inventive minds working. Maybe there needs to be a foreign owner wealth tax which can be diverted to fund some of this R&D. This, absolutely. Want to buy a Chinese car company - you can't. Want to start a car plant in China - 50% local ownership is required. Yet we in Europe sell our assets to the chinese - MG, Volvo gone. Mercedes are under threat. It's bonkers. And don't get me started on the nuclear industry. At least the yanks are pretty anti Chinese ownership on National Security grounds - good for them. |
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Post by PG on Mar 19, 2018 13:38:09 GMT
The Russians have pretty much been the enemy of "the West" since their revolution. It is just that for a few years between 1941 and 1945 we decided to co-operate (at arms length pretty much) against the greater enemy of Nazi Germany. Russia played no part in the Pacific conflict and did not in fact declare war on Japan until August 1945.
Having been in Poland quite a lot over the past 17 years for work, you quickly realise that the Poles still don't trust the Russians or the Germans as far as they can throw them. We would be wise to follow their example.
But on the other side of that coin, I think that "we" ought to butt out of what goes in in what is obviously the Russian's sphere of influence. The EU sticking their noses in to Ukraine and Crimea has been a disaster for example and has poked the Russian bear. Syria is a mess on all sides - Russia, Turkey, US all involved in some way plus us bombing a bit too.
Anybody still thinking that Trident is a waste of time after Salisbury needs to be have their lobes felt. Ultimately, MAD kept the peace in Europe between 1945 and the late 90's. We've just forgotten that all too quickly in the past 20 years and have been happy to spend our resources on one armed black lesbian disabiity awareness officers rather than tangible stuff that might be of help in a crisis.
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Post by Big Blue on Mar 19, 2018 14:08:54 GMT
From a Putin / Russia perspective, all correct stuff here. He's controlling dictator that enjoys his position of power, right down to the acts of a simpleton, where he sat on a photoshoot with Angela Merkel (who is terrified of dogs) with a huge dog by his side. If nothing else his behaviour, and that of countless others that will come after him, should be driving the west towards a change of energy policy to starve Russia of one of its principle powers over western Europe. On the positive side his presence, policies and actions are actually preventing a few hundred thousand rural Russians being killed / oppressed (more so) annually in local power struggles (don't forget in Russia "local" is the size of Wales, the standard unit of measurement in large land terms).
As to the spy killing: he knew it was coming and had done all his life as that's the penalty of being in the secret services and jacking it in and moving abroad. The errors were in the dosing of the agent not being enough to be fatal in a shorter time frame thus affecting members of the public and in reality using his daughter as a mule and getting her too is a bit of a line crosser - this family killing stuff is more akin to the mafioso mentality but then that's possibly also the difference between the West and the East.
In short; after Putin will come insane unrest and thereafter a new order of dictatorship. It's the only way to manage a huge landmass with no single ideal as the EU and all its forced bureaucracy to the member states shows us, along with our own brutal colonial history.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2018 16:33:05 GMT
Quite consistent to use a mafioso method, along with KGB history, Putin's criminal backers are of the same ideology. It would be a break with this heritage if he didn't put a horses head in the bed. It is all about the show and being noticed to be what they are, untouchable.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Mar 19, 2018 16:47:49 GMT
. If nothing else his behaviour, and that of countless others that will come after him, should be driving the west towards a change of energy policy to starve Russia of one of its principle powers over western Europe. Let's get cracking and start fracking. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2018 18:08:28 GMT
Have you seen the results of fracking in the US? Gas coming out of your water supply? Being forced to keep your windows open ALL the time of be gassed? With our reduced land mass over the US we will be royally gassed and not in a good way. Tidal schemes, simple ground pumps and community renewable schemes which share the benefit of all forms of renewable energy rather than each household going its own way will get us where we need to be. Fracking? Ouch.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Mar 19, 2018 19:16:52 GMT
Have you seen the results of fracking in the US? Gas coming out of your water supply? Being forced to keep your windows open ALL the time of be gassed? With our reduced land mass over the US we will be royally gassed and not in a good way. Tidal schemes, simple ground pumps and community renewable schemes which share the benefit of all forms of renewable energy rather than each household going its own way will get us where we need to be. Fracking? Ouch. That’s actually not true, the water table is thousands of metres above the spongy shale holding the gas, separated by an impermeable rock cap. The area you are referring to in the US had naturally occurring methane in its water supply that long predates any fracking. We’ve been fracking for over 60 years, including on mainland UK, any gas in your water yet? |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2018 19:40:19 GMT
Have you seen the results of fracking in the US? Gas coming out of your water supply? Being forced to keep your windows open ALL the time of be gassed? With our reduced land mass over the US we will be royally gassed and not in a good way. Tidal schemes, simple ground pumps and community renewable schemes which share the benefit of all forms of renewable energy rather than each household going its own way will get us where we need to be. Fracking? Ouch. That’s actually not true, the water table is thousands of metres above the spongy shale holding the gas, separated by an impermeable rock cap. The area you are referring to in the US had naturally occurring methane in its water supply that long predates any fracking. We’ve been fracking for over 60 years, including on mainland UK, any gas in your water yet? Actually, yes but thankfully not from my tap. |
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Post by ChrisM on Mar 19, 2018 21:01:51 GMT
That’s actually not true, the water table is thousands of metres above the spongy shale holding the gas, separated by an impermeable rock cap. The area you are referring to in the US had naturally occurring methane in its water supply that long predates any fracking. We’ve been fracking for over 60 years, including on mainland UK, any gas in your water yet? Actually, yes but thankfully not from my tap. LOL !!! Another person who prefers a bath to a shower, I suppose ! |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2018 21:40:14 GMT
Oh for a home powered Jacuzzi.
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Post by Alex on Mar 19, 2018 21:46:39 GMT
I saw Putin won his latest election. Didn’t see that coming...
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