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Post by johnc on Jul 26, 2017 7:08:47 GMT
So the UK has followed France and from 2040 the sale of new diesel and electric cars will be banned.
Details seem a bit sketchy and nowhere makes it clear if this is going to allow for range extender or hybrid engines in some form.
The bottom line is we have 23 years to enjoy one of man's greatest inventions and the noise and involvement it provides. It might be considerably less than that though if manufacturers start to put all their R&D into electric cars and councils start to ban fossil fuelled cars from towns and cities.
One of my neighbours owns about 10 filling stations and appears to make a really nice living from it - I wonder how he is feeling this morning?
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Post by ChrisM on Jul 26, 2017 7:12:11 GMT
It does sound like grim news indeed and I still have concerns for how existing petrols and diesels will survive once sales of new vehilces using those fuels are banned.
Also as has been pointed out again in discussions on the radio this morning, we'll just be shifting the location of emissions from tailpipes to power stations, and not actually tackling the overall emissions issues.
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Post by Roadrunner on Jul 26, 2017 7:25:34 GMT
It does sound like grim news indeed and I still have concerns for how existing petrols and diesels will survive once sales of new vehilces using those fuels are banned. Also as has been pointed out again in discussions on the radio this morning, we'll just be shifting the location of emissions from tailpipes to power stations, and not actually tackling the overall emissions issues. Between now and 2040 it should be possible to build some more sources of clean energy (wind, tidal, etc), but the bigger issue is how we upgrade the National Grid from ppower station to everyone's front door to be able to cope with hundreds of thousands of Teslas being charged overnight.
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Post by johnc on Jul 26, 2017 7:38:05 GMT
It does sound like grim news indeed and I still have concerns for how existing petrols and diesels will survive once sales of new vehilces using those fuels are banned. Also as has been pointed out again in discussions on the radio this morning, we'll just be shifting the location of emissions from tailpipes to power stations, and not actually tackling the overall emissions issues. I reckon finding a petrol station in 25 years time will be like trying to find somewhere that sells LPG just now - available on the motorways and near large cities but outside that, extremely rare. I wonder if I will have to get rid of my petrol hedge cutter and swap it for a weedy electric one attached to several hundred feet of cable (big hedge and a long way from my only external power source)!
This announcement is probably meant to piggy back on the statement yesterday that home owners are going to be encouraged to generate their own power and store it in batteries. What I want to know is why planning laws don't require all new houses to be built with a solar roof of some sort and ground heat source systems - there will be a cost but not massive when done on a big scale and properly planned.
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Post by Boxer6 on Jul 26, 2017 7:53:21 GMT
It does sound like grim news indeed and I still have concerns for how existing petrols and diesels will survive once sales of new vehilces using those fuels are banned. Also as has been pointed out again in discussions on the radio this morning, we'll just be shifting the location of emissions from tailpipes to power stations, and not actually tackling the overall emissions issues. I reckon finding a petrol station in 25 years time will be like trying to find somewhere that sells LPG just now - available on the motorways and near large cities but outside that, extremely rare. I wonder if I will have to get rid of my petrol hedge cutter and swap it for a weedy electric one attached to several hundred feet of cable (big hedge and a long way from my only external power source)!
This announcement is probably meant to piggy back on the statement yesterday that home owners are going to be encouraged to generate their own power and store it in batteries. What I want to know is why planning laws don't require all new houses to be built with a solar roof of some sort and ground heat source systems - there will be a cost but not massive when done on a big scale and properly planned.
I suspect the answer to that has many elements, but the main ones are a seeming inability to engage in any meaningful form of joined-up thinking by government and their minions, plus that sneaky wee four-letter word you sneaked in there; cost!
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Post by PG on Jul 26, 2017 7:54:14 GMT
I have hugely mixed feelings about these sort of announcements.
On the one hand, we are continually berating governments for not thinking long term, so this ought to be applauded as at least some attempt at a "strategy". But on the other hand, I think we all have zero belief that any government (maybe I should add "in a democracy" to that phrase?) can actually make a strategy come to reality, as in they can't even predict or manage 23 weeks or 23 months, let alone 23 years ahead.
A decision like this has such far reaching consequences and probably also lots of unintended consequences too, that it is an easy statement to make, but I'd say next to impossible to deliver easily. Here's my quick list of things I thought of - Power & grid - massive changes needed - more power; how to generate that power; higher grid capacity; charging infrastructure. It takes 20+ years to get one nuclear station running (maybe). We'd better start tomorrow then..... Road pricing - loss of fuel duty means that road pricing is inevitable. People will never vote for that! how can that be squared? Autonomous driving - will we even own cars in 23 years? - perhaps this is really about the end of personal transport being "owned" - that sounds like a good way for governments to control us as the growth in personal freedom has been hugely helped by access to transport. The left hate cars - this will be golden opportunity to stick it to the middle classes as usual. Battery materials - assuming that batteries will be the main source for a moment, the arabs had their moment of glory in the 1970's when they deiced to make everyone pay more for oil. you can bet the owners /controllers of all the materials needed for battery production will want the same at some point. Battery v hydrogen - people need to decide this now. Batteries may be only an interim. What we really need is to build the hydrogen infrastructure that will be usable as fuel cells become more widely available. Batteries are really the VHS of the energy world. Not ideal but seemingly at the moment the one that we're stuck with. Hydrogen is Betamox - technically more sensible; longer term more sensible; but intially hard to make people invest in.
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Post by LandieMark on Jul 26, 2017 8:01:27 GMT
It's the infrastructure that's going to be the issue. All those terraced houses with multiple cars and no private parking immediately spring to mind.
I don't think we will see the demise of the petrol station so quickly though.
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Post by PG on Jul 26, 2017 8:02:09 GMT
I reckon finding a petrol station in 25 years time will be like trying to find somewhere that sells LPG just now - available on the motorways and near large cities but outside that, extremely rare. I wonder if I will have to get rid of my petrol hedge cutter and swap it for a weedy electric one attached to several hundred feet of cable (big hedge and a long way from my only external power source)!
This announcement is probably meant to piggy back on the statement yesterday that home owners are going to be encouraged to generate their own power and store it in batteries. What I want to know is why planning laws don't require all new houses to be built with a solar roof of some sort and ground heat source systems - there will be a cost but not massive when done on a big scale and properly planned.
I suspect the answer to that has many elements, but the main ones are a seeming inability to engage in any meaningful form of joined-up thinking by government and their minions, plus that sneaky wee four-letter word you sneaked in there; cost! I wondered about new houses too. Classic lack of planning and opportunity to make real changes to things for fear of upsetting people (or being too thick to think about them in time). The announcement said "cars" (I think - or at least that is what is being touted). So what about buses, lorries etc on the roads? And then, as you say, there is the entire "off road" use of fossil fuels. Not just hedge trimmers, but agriculture, industry, aviation. If road fuel use drops, that is only going to make refining less oil for those to use more expensive. Nobody has yet managed to design an effective electric combine harvester for example! So that comes back to my comments above about hydrogen. It's the only way forward really. I guess you can even make a fuel cell aeroplane if you went about it properly, although memories of the Hindenberg may make hydrogen fuelled aviation an uphill success story!
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Post by michael on Jul 26, 2017 8:47:10 GMT
Could you still have a hybrid though? Presumably this would be so a car could switch to electric for a low emission zone?
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Post by humphreythepug on Jul 26, 2017 9:23:13 GMT
It will be interesting to see how this all pans out, I do think we are on the cusp of a huge leap forward in terms of tecnological progress as all manufacturers will be coming on board and investing.
Charging could be an issue, I can't charge at home, however there are now charge points being installed in lamp posts, which will help greatly, but there needs to be more transparency amongst differing charge point companies and also a standard charging type across the board.
I'm sure there were similar murmerings when the first ICE cars appeared.
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Post by Big Blue on Jul 26, 2017 9:57:59 GMT
Big policy talk by politicians that will be long gone in 2040. Until it's policy agreed by ALL parties I'll take it with a pinch of salt. What they're doing by putting these long dates on environmental issues is hoping industry will take the reins and drive development in order to meet incremental policy changes. So what we'll see is taxation changes to drive the fleet market in a certain direction and these will change little by little until some new driver appears and changes policy direction.
The reason there are so many soot-puffing shit-house diesels chugging about is because of taxation led by policy. That's really worked out well, hasn't it? and the comments we simplistic men have made above (and frequently elsewhere) indicate supplying power to these new fleets of cars in a generation's time is the next big hole in planning this next phase. Power all the cars whilst we sit in the dark with no TV or buy shares in horse breeders? What a choice for our grandchildren.
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Post by johnc on Jul 26, 2017 10:05:14 GMT
One good thing I see being suggested is that bus lanes, speed bumps and traffic light timing may now be reviewed to help the flow of traffic instead of restricting it.
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Post by ChrisM on Jul 26, 2017 10:06:12 GMT
Governments at local and national level can't even sort out the provision of space for wheelie bins on new houses, so how will they cope with the provision of multiple charging points for multi-car households and blocks of flats?
I suppose I may still be alive in 2040 to find out....... but I wonder about my children and grand-children and how it will affect those much younger than me
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Post by Alex on Jul 26, 2017 10:08:23 GMT
I think we need to look at a bigger picture of personal transport. I'm slowly getting more and more convinced that my children (currently 8 and 10 years old) will have no need to learn to drive and may indeed never take a driving test, at least not as we know it now. Others have mentioned this issue of all those cars neing to be connected to a house by wire which will be hampered by lack of planning. That notion is based on current trends of having a car on the drive and people owning their own car. In 23 years time there is every chance that people won't have their own car. They will merely go to an app and ask for one, and the nearest available autonomous car will come to their door and pick them up. It won't need some big charging station because the roads will have contactless induction charging built in so it will be powered as it goes. Being autonomous means you won't need to drive it yourself. You may also find the pricing will be depended upon whether you want to travel alone or have it pick up other occupants along the way, which will be cheaper but take longer.
Thinking back 23 years to 1994, today's cars have moved on massively. I agree that a mk3 Golf TDI worked the same as today's mk7 and apart from a better interior and quieter engine it hasn't changed, but compared to the Golf GTE it is light years apart so there's every chance that another 23 years will see cars being almost unrecognisable to someone used to a mk3 Golf.
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Post by ChrisM on Jul 26, 2017 10:10:36 GMT
Once/if all cars are autonomous and electric, there won't be a need for the traditional bonnet or crash zones, so car styling will change masively too. But in the interim.....
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Post by Tim on Jul 26, 2017 10:14:33 GMT
There's a mighty £255M being passed to councils to start this off, what a joke amount is that?
Michael Gove was talking about bus routes being altered, etc. Fair enough but how about something more sensible?
For example, tonight I'll be going to visit my mum. On the way out of the local town on the A914 there's a traffic calming island that stops traffic heading out of the town about 250 yards before the end of the 30 limit. It wasn't there 5 years ago. At busy times I've been stuck there, engine idling, for a couple of minutes and then been faced with the need to accelerate from a standing start. Before the island appeared I would've driven past on a steady throttle at 30. I'm NOT responsible for the extra emissions caused by this, it was the planning authority's decision.
I presume that overnight my £15k petrol & diesel cars have lost a chunk of value?
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Post by michael on Jul 26, 2017 10:20:23 GMT
I think we need to look at a bigger picture of personal transport. I'm slowly getting more and more convinced that my children (currently 8 and 10 years old) will have no need to learn to drive and may indeed never take a driving test, at least not as we know it now. Others have mentioned this issue of all those cars neing to be connected to a house by wire which will be hampered by lack of planning. That notion is based on current trends of having a car on the drive and people owning their own car. In 23 years time there is every chance that people won't have their own car. They will merely go to an app and ask for one, and the nearest available autonomous car will come to their door and pick them up. It won't need some big charging station because the roads will have contactless induction charging built in so it will be powered as it goes. Being autonomous means you won't need to drive it yourself. You may also find the pricing will be depended upon whether you want to travel alone or have it pick up other occupants along the way, which will be cheaper but take longer. Thinking back 23 years to 1994, today's cars have moved on massively. I agree that a mk3 Golf TDI worked the same as today's mk7 and apart from a better interior and quieter engine it hasn't changed, but compared to the Golf GTE it is light years apart so there's every chance that another 23 years will see cars being almost unrecognisable to someone used to a mk3 Golf. There's probably some truth in this if you live in a high population density city but for the rest of us I'm less convinced. The thing is in terms of air pollution this isn't going to solve the problem so long as buses and trucks are diesel and while people use log burning stoves. It's encouraging there is talk about speed bumps and so on but halving the road capacity across many roads in London to add in a cycle lane is causing far more problems.
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Post by Tim on Jul 26, 2017 10:23:38 GMT
The thing is in terms of air pollution this isn't going to solve the problem so long as buses and trucks are diesel and while people use log burning stoves. It's encouraging there is talk about speed bumps and so on but halving the road capacity across many roads in London to add in a cycle lane is causing far more problems.
No mention of industry or farming either. Aren't cattle a massive contributor, something crazy like 40%?
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Post by michael on Jul 26, 2017 10:29:15 GMT
Farming generally is a massive contributor to greenhouse gases. The production of feed and fertilizer use enormous quantities of fuel and cows themselves give of staggering amounts of methane. I was told a few years ago owning a large dog was worse for the planet than three Toyota Land Cruisers in terms of emissions. At the time I had four large dogs. The truth is decreasing meat consumption would have a far greater effect on greenhouse gases but it's easier to hit the motorist. We need to have a proper debate about what the real causes are and what we as a society are prepared to do to address them.
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Post by Tim on Jul 26, 2017 11:11:36 GMT
Concrete as well. I watched a couple of episodes of the documentary about Crossrail. The amount of concrete used was incredible and all in a location where there's huge pollution already. This could sound the death knell for HS2 on environmental grounds!
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Post by alf on Jul 26, 2017 13:19:58 GMT
Some good comments here.
Selfishly (and for the UK economy) I do hope that specialist sports/super/track/race car makers are allowed to continue with the ICE - we have a lot of them, the green issues caused by them are minimal, and I can't see petrol becoming that difficult to buy even when we are almost all in EV's.
When it comes to the green arguments - we are generally told we are taxed as motorists on the basis of CO2 emissons. They won't be much, if any, lower initially if we all move to EV's, indeed the infrastructure upgrades, power generation, and battery production/decommissioning probably cancel it out. But the biggest annoyance is, as Michael says, the fact that motorists are hammered by punitive taxes when all sorts of other areas produce a lot of CO2 (some even more than motorised transport) and they are not hit by nearly equivalent taxes. I think I'm right in saying heating our homes produces the most CO2 by category, and we are so lightly taxed in this field that even low earners can afford to heat their homes enough to wear T-shirts indoors all winter. Feeding pets, growing animals for meat, drying out peat bogs, generating power, building projects using millions of tonnes of concrete, domestic fires/stoves, public transport, lightly taxed airline fuel, growing populations, etc etc ad nauseam all produce vast amounts of CO2 yet the only item with a social stigma and massive tax bill associated with it seems to be the car, and its not even the primary cause.
My point is that there is never much consideration given to the overall picture and very rarely are we told what we can do in other areas of life. We are told what sort of car we can buy and taxed heavily on it, yet imagine the outcry if we were told how many children we could have, how warm we could heat our houses in the winter, how much meat we could eat, what sort of stove we could have, how often we could fly, etc etc. But what is the difference?
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Jul 26, 2017 13:25:45 GMT
I imagine this announcement will spell the death knell for the ICE in the same way as that invention spelled the death knell for the horse.
Cars with traditional engines will become a weekend hobby for those who can drive and those who bothered to learn. That said, I think most people will not own a car and will just hail an Uber* - be it driven by a person or autonomously driven.
* Other car sharing apps will be available.
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Post by grampa on Jul 26, 2017 14:12:44 GMT
My point is that there is never much consideration given to the overall picture and very rarely are we told what we can do in other areas of life. We are told what sort of car we can buy and taxed heavily on it, yet imagine the outcry if we were told how many children we could have, how warm we could heat our houses in the winter, how much meat we could eat, what sort of stove we could have, how often we could fly, etc etc. But what is the difference? Why not just tell us how much we can drive? - cut a 20,000 mpa motorist down to a 10,000 mpa and you've halved his pollution with no development of new technology nor building of infrastructre. But whatever we do in Britain, surely we're just pissing in the wind? - If we could cut all our emissions to zero, what effect would it actually have on the overall global picture?
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Post by grampa on Jul 26, 2017 14:13:53 GMT
Note re the above - quote thingy not working for me again - first paragraph was what I was quoting from alf.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2017 14:37:28 GMT
My car is LPG, so I shall be alright
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Post by LandieMark on Jul 26, 2017 16:17:54 GMT
Note re the above - quote thingy not working for me again - first paragraph was what I was quoting from alf. If you accidentally click in the quote box and then type, it will add your comments to the quote. It is sometimes easier when quoting, to use the BBCode editor rather than the preview editor and you can then see where the quote starts and stops. You can alter which editor is enabled by default in your profile. It's not something I can do globally.
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Post by Alex on Jul 26, 2017 17:59:35 GMT
My point is that there is never much consideration given to the overall picture and very rarely are we told what we can do in other areas of life. We are told what sort of car we can buy and taxed heavily on it, yet imagine the outcry if we were told how many children we could have, how warm we could heat our houses in the winter, how much meat we could eat, what sort of stove we could have, how often we could fly, etc etc. But what is the difference? Why not just tell us how much we can drive? - cut a 20,000 mpa motorist down to a 10,000 mpa and you've halved his pollution with no development of new technology nor building of infrastructre. Except you don't because he still needs to travel 20000 miles but half has to now be done by another means which may not necessarily be emission free. In your neck of the wood, for example, I imagine the railways are not electrified so the trains run on diesel (correct me if I'm wrong) as do the buses. But even if you do have trams or electric railways the power is still likely to be generated with a fossil fuel. If you limit him to 10000 miles with no other travel options he does less work, earns less money and extrapolated across the population we will all be poorer. Another point about this debate I thought of earlier was what about trucks? We can't take them all off the road unless we massively increase rail capacity. We'd probably need to build another cross country network twice the size of HS2 just to cope. Even then we'd still need to do something the other end to get products where they need to be. Battery powered transit vans are feasible but you'd need a fucking army of them to make up for the all the 40+ ton artics. Can the equivalent truck be replaced with a battery one? It doesn't appear so at present. So that's another hurdle the EV manufacturers are going to have to overcome if this is to work.
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Post by Martin on Jul 26, 2017 19:22:57 GMT
Or you could stop people being able to own cars if they do less than 10,000 miles a year, which would clear the roads up nicely for those of us who have to travel a lot.
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Post by PG on Jul 26, 2017 21:07:01 GMT
My point is that there is never much consideration given to the overall picture and very rarely are we told what we can do in other areas of life. We are told what sort of car we can buy and taxed heavily on it, yet imagine the outcry if we were told how many children we could have, how warm we could heat our houses in the winter, how much meat we could eat, what sort of stove we could have, how often we could fly, etc etc. But what is the difference? Why not just tell us how much we can drive? - cut a 20,000 mpa motorist down to a 10,000 mpa and you've halved his pollution with no development of new technology nor building of infrastructre. But whatever we do in Britain, surely we're just pissing in the wind? - If we could cut all our emissions to zero, what effect would it actually have on the overall global picture? +1 to both these points. "Cars" are seen as the route cause of all pollution, CO2, NOx, etc etc etc. Whereas, actually other sources of pollution are equally as bad or even worse in some cases. Too many people, not enogh homes? Easy - build a shit load more houses / flats with no requirement for solar panels, ground source heat, super insulation etc. These graphics are interesting - CO2 by category - NOX by category in central London Let's face it. What causes pollution is people - too many of them. That's not an anti immigrant comment. That's a global comment. The world's population is simply not "sustainable" as is, let alone how it is planned to grow. And the UK population is said to be truly sustainable at about 11 million people. Total global population truly sustainable at western living standards - about 2 billion. World Population Balance
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Jul 26, 2017 22:38:08 GMT
Why not just tell us how much we can drive? - cut a 20,000 mpa motorist down to a 10,000 mpa and you've halved his pollution with no development of new technology nor building of infrastructre. Except you don't because he still needs to travel 20000 miles but half has to now be done by another means which may not necessarily be emission free. In your neck of the wood, for example, I imagine the railways are not electrified so the trains run on diesel (correct me if I'm wrong) as do the buses. But even if you do have trams or electric railways the power is still likely to be generated with a fossil fuel. If you limit him to 10000 miles with no other travel options he does less work, earns less money and extrapolated across the population we will all be poorer. Another point about this debate I thought of earlier was what about trucks? We can't take them all off the road unless we massively increase rail capacity. We'd probably need to build another cross country network twice the size of HS2 just to cope. Even then we'd still need to do something the other end to get products where they need to be. Battery powered transit vans are feasible but you'd need a fucking army of them to make up for the all the 40+ ton artics. Can the equivalent truck be replaced with a battery one? It doesn't appear so at present. So that's another hurdle the EV manufacturers are going to have to overcome if this is to work. What makes you think you can't have battery powered trucks? There are already a number of companies working on electric trucks that can pull 40 tonnes 400 miles on a single charge. You'll see diesel trucks that do urban deliveries replaced first, then the motorway hauliers.
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