The Russians, NATO. and Ukraine

Franz Ferdinand and his wife were shot and killed by a Serb student Gavrilo Princip who was imprisoned and died from Typhoid later but this led to a conflict/invasion. The war (WW1) followed. After that the 'allies' ripped the guts out of Germany and the short lived Weimar republic followed. Factor in the flu epidemic, the 20's crash and workers taking their pay home in wheelbarrows because inflation was so high a wheelbarrow of cash might buy you a loaf of bread.

Taking massive reparation from Germany left it ripe for an extremist to step in which he promptly did. Facts, despite the NAZI party heirachy milking the recovery for everything they could, Germans got a lot of positives so they felt good about themselves again and that is why they followed Hitler. Looking at the fall of the USSR you see a direct connection. USSR falls and there are incompetents running the show. Get rid of the major organisations and put these up to individual control rather than committee.

These oligarchs made fortunes out of it. These are the people who legitimised Putin. People had one source of information but they felt better off, proud to be Russian again. Lets not forget that lots of people died through the transformation from Soviet union to Russian federation.

The average Russian is as good a human being as any nation but until Putin is gone this sort of thing is on the cards. I believe that Cuba is more interested in making a connection with the USA rather than Russia these days.

Simplistic I know but, Could it have been different if we had supported the change from the Warsaw Pact to the Russian federation more fully?

I have just one 50p coin in my possession at the moment; I've been out today and declined to spend it since it bears a rather poignant message:

That’s what the Russians say. If Putin tells you it is raining outside, you would be very foolish if you didn’t look out of the window to check. And probably discover it’s sunny but raining 150 miles away, which on a technicality is outside.

So just to prove how much Putin wants to see the stability of Ukraine as a non-NATO state his solution is to make it uninhabitable. Has he made the same statement about Finland? and what his response have been if NATO said they didn't like a Russian puppet-state in Belarus as a NATO neighbour and demand that no Russian military action could ever be launched from there?

Yes a simplistic kind of demand from Putin to feed his simplistic advocates, but not really any kind of simple solution. As ever the Russian simple solution is as we are seeing being played out. The Rouble is just about half the value it was before this invasion - even his simplistic advocates must see that he's a dickhead as they work out if they're having half a loaf of bread or only 2 hours of heating a day.

Got to love modern tech.

I thinks it’s incredibly simplistic to see Putin as bad, his opponents as good. It also sounds a little over the top to describe Ukraine as uninhabitable - I don’t want to downplay the horrific personal cost to those poor citizens who’ve lost their lives, but the vast majority of the country hasn’t seen any conflict. 

Finland isn’t part of NATO and hasn’t made moves to be part of it for the very reasons I say Ukraine should not join.

The problem with arguing ‘what if nato didn’t like Belarus as a neighbour’ is that nato has expanded to the Belarus border. It has an expansionist policy that is central to the issue with Putin.

The latest agreement between Finland and NATO is that even more joint exercises will take place. If Putin was uncomfortable before it is going to get much worse. Allowing for Russia being bankrupted and Russian citizens being warned they better not have more savings than they declared, or they will be seized, being a Russian is going to hell in a hand basket. Russians are as decent as anyone and they do not deserve the carp any more than the Russians do.

Healthy competition yes, bloody warfare from paranoia not so much.

Crying won't fix this nor will sanctions and the PRC saying one thing in public but another in private will give the tin man more support.

We humans can be real shits at times.

Given that the East of Ukraine is allegedly so fiercely pro-Russian how many of these citizens have taken the opportunity to seek safe haven along the humanitarian corridors to the Motherland - clearly with the intention of saving themselves from upcoming bloodshed - before they can triumphantly return back to the 'independent' state of Donbas, or whatever they choose to call it when the time comes?

If you believe the propaganda put out by the Russian state machine surely there must be millions waiting to do this?

I'm pretty sure the real answer is a handful.

Quite.

I saw there were a lot of Russians heading across the border to Finland.

It is useful that you say this, because its not entirely clear otherwise. Aside from saying it's no real problem to shell a nuclear power plant, or set up supposed humanitarian corridors into the aggressor's country only, you seem generally to think that people from this region do not have the right to a level playing field - they are near to Russia and deserve to be subjugated by them. 

I don't see how its simplistic or idealistic to point out that Ukraine's eventual leanings towards the West were democratically inspired - its the whole point. Every human should have that right to freedom and self-determination, this is what Ukrainian people chose and we should not be condoning the violence towards them that has led to millions being displaced as a result. I would die for that right, and I would kill others to defend it. Clearly a lot of Ukrainians feel that way too. 

One reason this is all becoming incredibly dangerous is that Putin's forces have made a total pigs ear of it. Their much-vaunted modernised armed forces have performed appallingly, falling way short of expectations on all sides. Sanctions have been far stronger than expected, and getting stronger. NATO has been made miles stronger, and - critically - countries like Germany are taking their defence commitments seriously for the first time in ages. The result could not be worse from Putin's view but the limited options this leaves him are a real concern. I stand by my Hitler-like comments (this is my degree subject after all, and my dissertation was on Vietnam) and that Putin was never "just" after Ukraine. What he will do next is a huge issue, and we do need to be mindful of not backing him into a corner too far if he will potentially use nuclear weapons. 

What worries me is that Putin sees the UK as Russia's natural enemy and hitting us or maybe one of our carriers would probably give him a great sense of achievement. By picking us instead of the US, he probably averts nuclear Armageddon but more than makes his point.

We agree that backing him into a corner is a bad idea. I’ve told you what I think should happen. What’s your plan for not backing him into a corner. Easy to throw stones, harder to be constructive.

Russians now shelling and destroying a maternity hospital in Mariupol. This has turned into genocide and the war crimes are piling up. Someone in the Kremlin needs to waken up and realise that these actions are the work of a madman and also young, poorly trained but frightened troops. The West also needs to provide Ukraine with the weapons to rid the sky of Russian jets and target the artillery. This whole war is an atrocity.

The Russian military leaders have had to resort to bombardment because their soldiers are totally disillusioned. Slav chat rooms have reported that when the troops are in amongst the civilians they realise that they are not being welcomed with open arms as the saviours and are visibly terrified when among huge numbers of people that want to tear them apart limb by limb with bare hands. Nothing can stop the genocide and physical destruction because no one that speaks common sense can access The Kremlin without being punished.

There are also large numbers of Russians that support the special military operation because they only watch and read Russian media so know for certain a just and right operation is being played out.