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Post by alf on Dec 20, 2021 12:09:31 GMT
Not really politics and finance in the sense that it's not UK politics so we are unlikely to have fisticuffs over it!
It's not been hugely reported, but after weeks of the Russian arms build up on the border with Ukraine (something the news articles that did cover it, said was potentially the biggest flashpoint with Russia since the Cuban missile crisis or even Berlin airlift), the Russians have publicy issued their demands for de-escalation. All they want, is to turn the clock back to pre-1997 and not have any major NATO exercises or equipment in Poland or the Baltic states, or the waters or airspace around them. Oh, and a veto on anyone joining NATO! So the country the fear of which causes NATO to be set up, now wants a veto on members joining the organisation set up for mutual defence from it.........
For me - and remember I am a history graduate/nerd - this is deeply worrying stuff. I do not say this lightly, but Putin is the world leader most like Hitler, that I have seen in my lifetime. My concern is that we now have some idea of his true aspirations, which are mighty. Just like Hitler, he has been nibbling away at territories on his border with ethnic groups he considers to be "his", while constantly telling the West there is nothing to see here. He has a total grip of his country, censors western media, and is sufficiently unworried about us to use banned weapons of mass destruction, and nuclear material, to kill people on UK soil.
It now seems he would like to reinstate the USSR, and also keep NATO forces well away from his shores - a bit like China is trying in the South China Sea - effectively creating a defensible no entry zone well outside its borders. And for what genuine reason? There is a zero percent chance that Western democracies would stomach a full scale war on Russia as some sort of pre-emptive strike - and for what? We can't even make democracy stick in tinpot 3rd world countries that don't want it. So there is no credible current threat to Russia - which makes me worry about his intentions in the future - which presumably are on such a scale he is worried about all out war at some point.
On top of a Chinese government that has no concern for the rule of law and human rights, and rattles sabres over Taiwan regularly, I have genuine concerns about whether we'll see another 75 years of no major global wars... The one real advantage we have in the West is creativity, especially in technology - if we don't maintain a significant equipment advantage and military spending at decent levels, we may lose everything we have come to value. When conspiracy theorists here are moaning about too many CCTV cameras or whatever, they miss the point that democracy is not a globally accepted goal - have a look at how Russia and China treat their own. Do we want that?
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Post by johnc on Dec 20, 2021 13:15:41 GMT
I am with you here James. We have given China so much technology by manufacturing everything over there that we have effectively fuelled their technological growth. They have also been stealing the designs of many of the West's military weapons and systems and have been developing their own technology with hypersonic missiles and delivery systems.
The West are not a threat to either Russia or China but their expansionist plans are looking like an ever greater risk for the West. Two dictators in power with enormous resources and no compassion is a dangerous cocktail.
No doubt Putin does not want to have countries bordering Russia, who are in NATO because that would mean and Russian invasion of those countries would bring the whole of NATO in to the conflict. If Putin gets his way, I think it is highly likely that he would invade those non NATO countries on his borders in the knowledge that it is unlikely to lead to full war. However what it would do is take his control and troops one step closer to the heart of Western Europe and make further trouble making or even all out war much easier to achieve.
The danger increases whenever these dictators begin to feel any power at home slipping out of their hands because the only way they can see to operate is to create an external enemy against whom they must make a stand. We are in dangerous times.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Dec 20, 2021 13:40:11 GMT
I'm looking at this from a Russian point of view; why would we expect them to be happy about NATO encroaching ever eastwards towards them, to a point of encirclement. They've been invaded twice from the west already. Ukraine should not be invited to join NATO and should act as a buffer zone. We'd not be happy if Warsaw Pact aligned countries were moving westward, absorbing Germany, France etc. I've no idea why we want to poke the bear.
Russia isn't going to invade Ukraine and start an all out war, though I could see them supporting ethnic Russians in the east of the country. The Russians see Ukraine as the birthplace of the Soviet experiment and consider it one and the same with Mother Russia. That said there were significant numbers of Ukrainian fascists supported Hitler and fought alongside Germany, leaving lingering resentment that festers to this day. Their descendants are the ones launching missiles at ethnics Russians in the east.
Bearing in mind the problems Russia encountered in Afghanistan and Chechnya they have no interest in repeating the same mistakes of trying to police an invaded and hostile territory.
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Post by Tim on Dec 20, 2021 16:02:54 GMT
Haven't Russia been raising the issue of genocide in Eastern Ukraine though, thus creating themselves an excuse to go in on a peacekeeping basis?
I'm sure we all believe it's bollocks but that's how these things start - and once they're in they'll never leave.
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Post by Big Blue on Dec 20, 2021 16:34:38 GMT
Tricky one because we’re dealing with regimes that are unlike those we know. Don’t ever forget that whatever we think about Russian censorship of western media, there are millions of Russians that still agree with the promotion of Russian dominance, which is unsurprising. Western democracy isn’t the international panacea it’s promoted to be by our own society! We currently have “thought police” style tactics where the rantings of idiot teenagers is brought to bear on their adult selves ignoring any life skills or learning they’ve collected on the way: hardly the model anyone is leaping to adopt.
So I’m with Bob. The UK had a vote about relationships with its allied neighbours and it resulted in the UK Government telling them, our allies, to fuck off. Now imagine your non-allies are amassing armies and weapons in the countries bordering yours. You’d probably have a thing or two to say about it.
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Post by alf on Dec 20, 2021 16:39:21 GMT
I'm looking at this from a Russian point of view; why would we expect them to be happy about NATO encroaching ever eastwards towards them, to a point of encirclement. They've been invaded twice from the west already. Ukraine should not be invited to join NATO and should act as a buffer zone. We'd not be happy if Warsaw Pact aligned countries were moving westward, absorbing Germany, France etc. I've no idea why we want to poke the bear. Russia isn't going to invade Ukraine and start an all out war, though I could see them supporting ethnic Russians in the east of the country. The Russians see Ukraine as the birthplace of the Soviet experiment and consider it one and the same with Mother Russia. That said there were significant numbers of Ukrainian fascists supported Hitler and fought alongside Germany, leaving lingering resentment that festers to this day. Their descendants are the ones launching missiles at ethnics Russians in the east. Bearing in mind the problems Russia encountered in Afghanistan and Chechnya they have no interest in repeating the same mistakes of trying to police an invaded and hostile territory. Good Russian thinking mode there Bob! They should employ you in at Army Staff School  I'm not sure I would describe as "NATO encroachment" countries becoming democratic through popular revolutions that threw out autocratic pro-Russian leaders, then asked to join NATO. Many of these countries were part of the USSR as a hangover from the end of WW2, where Stalin simply helped himself to "liberated" countries carrying out mass genocide against the establishment in them. Not a huge surprise they would like firstly their independence, then our support to keep it - look at what happened in Belarus when they voted for a more pro-Western government. Also Russia has already annexed Crimea and invaded eastern Ukraine - to create semi permanent unrecognised "states" allied to Russia so "I could see them" has already happened in a big way, indeed that conflict spilled over into the West's comfy world when that airliner flying from the Netherlands was shot down by a Russian team from the soil of the "liberated" part of Ukraine - which is very unlikely to be given back. Putin's sensitivity over the Baltic states is well known - I was disturbed and surprised Poland was named. That's seriously turning the clock back. Huge chunks of Poland were taken by Stalin after WW2 (he gave them parts of what was East Prussia in return), and of course famously the Russians murdered all Polish army officers they had in their control, and sat back during the Warsaw uprising so allow maximum collateral damage without them risking anything. If I was Czech, Hungarian, or Polish I would be sleeping less well than before.... To name but a few. NATO countries - especially Germany - need to wise up and take their spending commitments seriously. |
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Post by PG on Dec 20, 2021 19:10:07 GMT
I'm currently reading a biography of Churchill (not Boris' one) and I'm in the 1935-38 period of appeasement of Hitler. It's 1936 and Hitler has just re-occupied The Rhineland, violating the Treaty of Versailles and the Locarno Agreement. Nobody did anything. No warnings of "no more steps" were given. In the UK, Churchill, out in the political wilderness, is the only voice warning where this will all end. In 1938 Hitler takes Austria and parts of Czechoslovakia. In 1939 Poland and the rest is history.
So does that mean that I'm in favour of a robust response or even war with Russia over Ukraine? Actually no. Ukraine has been in the middle of arguing sides for generations. The eastern part is pretty Russian in outlook and sympathies, the western part much more European. The reality is that Russia will take the Eastern part of Ukraine by stealth or action and there really in nothing the west can do militarily. They may well up taking Belarus too - they effectively already control it. That gives Putin his much desired buffer to NATO. The challenge will be for western democracies to discover a backbone to say "no more" after that and make it believable.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Dec 20, 2021 19:50:18 GMT
Reassuring to see the $744 billion US defence bill got passed through Congress without a murmur. Handy that the Ukraine crisis was focussing peoples’ minds…
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Post by Big Blue on Dec 20, 2021 19:51:44 GMT
We need to consider one difference: Russian troops and weapons are Russian. The ones on the other side of the borders are not the local armed forces but a collective of those that seek to defy Russia. OK I accept that Russian forces operate in neighbouring friendly nations as well but NATO needs to beware of being accused of being the aggressor. Russia has the best hand in all cases so Putin wears his smirk with good reason.
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Post by PG on Dec 21, 2021 20:35:57 GMT
... so Putin wears his smirk with good reason. One of his reasons is that he has Europe's balls in his gas pipelined hands, so as to speak. If he wants Ukraine and takes it and Europe or NATO kick off, then Putin has to do is cut off gas supplies and that's that. Europe having become dependent on Russian gas is in no real position to argue with Putin. |
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Post by Big Blue on Feb 15, 2022 10:03:53 GMT
Let’s pick this back up in the light of Russia’s statement that the West has proved what a jumpy bunch of warmongers they are on the door step of Mother Russia. Hard to disagree on one front and a sign of how Putin’s Russia laughs at the west’s alarm and over reaction every time Russia reminds them that her borders are next to other European countries and not thousands of kms away like the USA and the U.K. The words used today are “today is the day western war propaganda failed. They have been destroyed and disgraced without a shot being fired.” Fair play to Vlad, he knows how to act like an arsehole then make others behave like one too then point the finger.
Interestingly I’m currently reading a book called Czechoslovakia, the state that failed. which shows how a country existed for 75 years almost in error following centuries of a mish-mash of Rusyn, Polak, German and Magyar territories and then a race for country status in the run up to the treaty of Versailles. Ukraine is oft mentioned as largely Russian and as many point out the east is probably due separatist status, much like Scotland and Wales enjoy from Westminster. The west doesn’t like this as it moves the Russian state one square close to the NATO chequerboard but conversely the Russians don’t fancy the idea of NATO being one step further east.
I’ll defer to Bob who first said it: hard to blame Russia for reminding us that it’s not nice having the [nuclear-weapons-owning] armies of America, UK, France etc. in the countries of your neighbours who would not really be bothered with poking the Russian bear without this presence. A bit like school catchment areas, there has to be a line somewhere and what happens either side of it needs to be carefully managed to avoid irate parents.
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Post by johnc on Feb 15, 2022 11:27:21 GMT
Putin states that he doesn't want NATO to spread further East and apparently, the Russians like the idea of having a non NATO buffer country between them and NATO aligned countries. Their invasion or potential invasion of Ukraine would mean that Russia would then be right up against the NATO countries of Romania, Poland Hungary and Slovakia (although Estonia and Latvia are already bordering on Russia). By Russia moving west, they are effectively moving themselves towards NATO aligned countries.
The whole thing is an orchestrated information war by Russia to twist the facts and give them a sellable (to the home market) Political reason to expand their territory. Putin restricted the reach of western media and social media into Russia a few years ago and has been peddling his view of the west for a while now. This whole plan must have been on the table for many years and he has waited for the right time to make a move. Now that a large proportion of Russians believe that the west is the aggressor and have no western media to balance the thoughts, I have a real fear that he is going to make a move regardless: it's what Hitler did, having built up his military power and it's what all dictators do at some point when they begin to lose grip on power or when the power goes to their head so much, it warps all sense and reason.
Will he stop at Ukraine? Somehow I doubt he wants to.
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Post by Big Blue on Feb 15, 2022 12:21:44 GMT
Whilst I don’t disagree with the views on the mindset of a dictator, why wouldn’t Russians see the west as aggressors when countries from thousands of kms away move armies and weapons to their doorstep? Vlad knows this is how ordinary humans think so uses it to his advantage, a bit like our own Brexit campaigners did when painting buses.
The western democratic ideal is not what we see it as to other nations. There are enough raised under the Soviet umbrella (w2.1 is under 50) to remember being taught how kids in the west were being shot dead in the street for their trainers - and they were. They were told what a terrible dystopian world the west was, with people mugged in the street, cars stolen, houses robbed, gun toting locals (a bit USA specific) and a plethora of other elements regarding the upbringing of youth and a culture of denying guilt through defining it as expression. Vlad is of that generation.
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Post by Alex on Feb 23, 2022 18:10:58 GMT
So how far is Putin going to go and what can we do to stop him? Looks like he's going for all out war and I don't doubt his forces will be able to take Kyiv but he is of course still insisting he's not the aggressor. Will Western sanctions make any difference or do they just prove he is really going to get away with it?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 19:36:25 GMT
Take a look at what happened in Georgia (Not the US state) 2008 and how separatist Russians with their militia started things off only to call in the Russian army to fix things for them. Nothing new under the sun in the NewSSR.
Putin is also more aligned with the PRC which is the state he would most like Russia to become and he has a way of 'retiring' opponents at home too.
It looks like we are going to see another little shooting war but am pretty sure NATO will shy away from any real involvement.
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Post by Blarno on Feb 24, 2022 8:41:17 GMT
Nothing we can do, not like Russia will listen anyway. Sit back and wait for the fuel price rises.
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Post by Tim on Feb 24, 2022 9:09:52 GMT
I doubt there's much we can do.
Sanctions are only going to be of limited effect as most of us are beholden to Russia for something, whether its gas in Germany or extensive political donations in the UK.
In the US you have the bizarre situation where the Republicans are saying how great Putin is. Possibly because they now fully understand how much help Trump's campaign got from them and they're only interested in being in power. So they're fucked as well.
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Post by racingteatray on Feb 24, 2022 9:55:13 GMT
I'm not sure some of the posts here are aging well.
Now, I'm a long-standing hawk when it comes to the people in the Kremlin, but it seems to me that to seek to blame anyone other than Putin for the current situation strikes me as risking being an apologist for empire-building.
I am well-versed in Russian history and perfectly well understand why Russians of a nationalist bent would desire to have Ukraine as part of Russia. But that's really, at the end of the day, all there is to it. Putin wants Ukraine in the same way China wants Taiwan - it's a long-standing obsession of his. He can create all the narratives he likes to justify why, such as fear of NATO, but they are just invented ploys with just enough plausibility to create differences in opinion in his opponents and create just enough dissent to allow him to get away with his goal.
Also interesting that Russia has done this whilst holding the chair of the UN Security Council, enabling them to close down any session when the discussion becomes undesirable to them, as happened this morning.
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Post by johnc on Feb 24, 2022 10:41:04 GMT
Russia has just moved relations with the West back by 40 plus years. What an ass Putin is. Putin has made it clear that in his opinion he is not invading Ukraine and he also corrected some of his more zealous colleagues about the recognition of the two Russian backed rebel areas in Ukraine when they tried to say that they were being returned to the Motherland - he is just covering his back from criticism whilst he attempts to put a much more Moscow friendly regime in place in Kyiv. The Ukranian's (like the Russians) can forget about getting an opportunity to vote in a Government they want.
From the West's point of view, we have received threats that anyone who resists this Russian action will receive an instant response, so we are dealing with a powerful bully who disregards and disrespects any opinion other than his own, making him highly unstable and dangerous. The West is going to have to up its game in defence spending and we had better get some of the smartest brains around working on new weapons, different weapons and a real solid defence line because the bear has had its first successful taste of bullying and since that worked, the warped mind might well think why can't it work again.
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Post by racingteatray on Feb 24, 2022 12:17:46 GMT
the warped mind might well think why can't it work again. He effectively put the Baltic states on notice that they too are illegitimate nations in his view too. And the Finns and Poles don't feel comfortable either. |
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Post by Big Blue on Feb 24, 2022 12:25:08 GMT
I'm not sure some of the posts here are aging well. Now, I'm a long-standing hawk when it comes to the people in the Kremlin, but it seems to me that to seek to blame anyone other than Putin for the current situation strikes me as risking being an apologist for empire-building. I am well-versed in Russian history and perfectly well understand why Russians of a nationalist bent would desire to have Ukraine as part of Russia. But that's really, at the end of the day, all there is to it. Putin wants Ukraine in the same way China wants Taiwan - it's a long-standing obsession of his. He can create all the narratives he likes to justify why, such as fear of NATO, but they are just invented ploys with just enough plausibility to create differences in opinion in his opponents and create just enough dissent to allow him to get away with his goal. Also interesting that Russia has done this whilst holding the chair of the UN Security Council, enabling them to close down any session when the discussion becomes undesirable to them, as happened this morning. Agree on the past post ageing. You are correct this is a Putin invasion, but clearly he’s not been illigitimised strongly enough by the West to get here, for fear of instigating an event such as this. |
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Post by Ben on Feb 24, 2022 12:42:51 GMT
Honestly, observing all of this, it's just scary to watch it unfold. But the larger observation for me here is that China has not outright condemned Russia for their actions.
The implication being that China may well be considering similar actions in the future too. Not just Taiwan, but also on South East Asia (there's already slight online murmurings about claims to Vietnam and Philippines). And when that happens it's essentially WW3.
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Post by racingteatray on Feb 24, 2022 12:44:16 GMT
Honestly, observing all of this, it's just scary to watch it unfold. But the larger observation for me here is that China has not outright condemned Russia for their actions. The implication being that China may well be considering similar actions in the future too. Not just Taiwan, but also on South East Asia (there's already slight online murmurings about claims to Vietnam and Philippines). And when that happens it's essentially WW3. If I were Xi, I might be thinking this was an excellent time to try and grab Taiwan... |
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Post by racingteatray on Feb 24, 2022 12:46:21 GMT
I'm not sure some of the posts here are aging well. Now, I'm a long-standing hawk when it comes to the people in the Kremlin, but it seems to me that to seek to blame anyone other than Putin for the current situation strikes me as risking being an apologist for empire-building. I am well-versed in Russian history and perfectly well understand why Russians of a nationalist bent would desire to have Ukraine as part of Russia. But that's really, at the end of the day, all there is to it. Putin wants Ukraine in the same way China wants Taiwan - it's a long-standing obsession of his. He can create all the narratives he likes to justify why, such as fear of NATO, but they are just invented ploys with just enough plausibility to create differences in opinion in his opponents and create just enough dissent to allow him to get away with his goal. Also interesting that Russia has done this whilst holding the chair of the UN Security Council, enabling them to close down any session when the discussion becomes undesirable to them, as happened this morning. Agree on the past post ageing. You are correct this is a Putin invasion, but clearly he’s not been illigitimised strongly enough by the West to get here, for fear of instigating an event such as this. One all-powerful individual is always going to win the decision-making process versus a committee of squabbling opponents with different vested interests and different views on what's acceptable and what isn't. |
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Post by Ben on Feb 24, 2022 12:51:51 GMT
Honestly, observing all of this, it's just scary to watch it unfold. But the larger observation for me here is that China has not outright condemned Russia for their actions. The implication being that China may well be considering similar actions in the future too. Not just Taiwan, but also on South East Asia (there's already slight online murmurings about claims to Vietnam and Philippines). And when that happens it's essentially WW3. If I were Xi, I might be thinking this was an excellent time to try and grab Taiwan... He's probably taking notes on Putin's assault strategy before moving in, TBH. |
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Post by PG on Feb 24, 2022 13:08:56 GMT
Honestly, observing all of this, it's just scary to watch it unfold. But the larger observation for me here is that China has not outright condemned Russia for their actions. The implication being that China may well be considering similar actions in the future too. Not just Taiwan, but also on South East Asia (there's already slight online murmurings about claims to Vietnam and Philippines). And when that happens it's essentially WW3. China are aligned with Russia on this as it is just like Taiwan to them. They can't criticise Russia and then take Taiwan. I do expect that Xi is watching carefully. I would not like to take bets on Taiwan right now. And if that goes, what about the lunatic in North Korea? For Xi and Putin this is a golden moment. A west coming out of, or even still in, Covid. Financially weakened by 2008 and then Covid. Militarily and foreign policy confidence knocked sideways by Iraq and Afghanistan. Generally weak political leaders. Peoples too cosy and comfy (despite what some in politics might say) that do not have the stomach for war or suffering (for themselves). As said above, the Baltic states will be the crunch point with Russia. |
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Post by johnc on Feb 24, 2022 13:13:36 GMT
Agree on the past post ageing. You are correct this is a Putin invasion, but clearly he’s not been illigitimised strongly enough by the West to get here, for fear of instigating an event such as this. One all-powerful individual is always going to win the decision-making process versus a committee of squabbling opponents with different vested interests and different views on what's acceptable and what isn't. I think Putin has quite a few of the old guard who are egging him on to repatriate what they see as part of Russia even though the reality is that many of those countries were independent before WW2. Russia has been building new ships, submarines, missiles, tanks and space warfare capability. They have been leveraging themselves into a position of strength for some time now and ultimately there has to be some outlet for all this development. They were caught fairly recently in British waters between Scotland and Ireland dropping sonar buoys. I dare say a UK ship doing the same in Russian waters would have been shelled, bombed or torpedoed. I just hope the Navy have been out practicing their depth charge drills where the buoys were dropped. There is something fairly sinister about the current Russian actions and you have to wonder what they see as the end game. One thing that worries me is that Putin said a few years ago that the UK was Russia's natural enemy - what part of his twisted mind conjures that one up? He also said of our new aircraft carriers that they just make bigger targets - hardly the mindset of someone who can remotely be called a friend. Two of my Dad's 18 yr old friends died on the Russian convoys, taking tanks, oil and other supplies to the Russians, when their ships were torpedoed. Another one of my Dad's friends (whom we called Uncle Matt) survived being torpedoed twice on the Russian convoys and he refused to talk about the war at all because of what he experienced. We are hardly Russia's natural enemy and I would have thought that as time passes by we should all be more tolerant, not less. |
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Post by racingteatray on Feb 24, 2022 14:13:33 GMT
They do have something of a bunker mentality.
When I lived in Moscow, I lost track of the number of times otherwise intelligent and educated Russians would assure me that British's primary foreign policy goal was the subjugation and conquest of Mother Russia, and that all our intelligence services ever did was to sit there plotting new and nefarious ways to undermine and invade her.
They used to get quite irked when my response to that was amusement, followed by pointing out that even at the height of the powers of the British Empire, we never invaded Russia and then thanking them for the flattering notion that, in the 21st Century, we had the military wherewithal and might to conquer a nuclear-armed country that stretches from the eastern shores of Finland to the western shores of the continental United States.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2022 15:35:12 GMT
The Baltic states are already part of NATO so not a real test of will. worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/nato-countriesThe fact that NATO has held off allowing Ukraine in IS telling though and probably something that convinced Putin he would not be challenged militarily, which is probably correct. I believe Putin mentioning the UK as a natural enemy would refer to the civil war where the UK chose to support the so called 'White Russians' or Imperial Russia. We had a sizeable military presence there. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied_intervention_in_the_Russian_Civil_WarPutin being an ex KGB communist could do little else really. |
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Post by Ben on Feb 24, 2022 15:35:51 GMT
We are fucked basically.
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