RDQ 3/12 - Brexit prep

So the French are prepared to take a no deal Brexit which excludes their fishermen from UK waters totally as opposed to one which allows them some access. Presumably we will get an agreement in the middle as long as egos don't get too inflated (a common French trait). This was always going to be a shit storm.

That's just the belligerent French. Can we move the tunnel to Holland?

He is in particular, one who represents himself and very badly at that.

I agree Bob - that's the problem when you are negotiating with a Committee and all its members want slightly different things!

Send in the gunboats, bugger we sold them all off or scrapped them.

We've had to do some Brexit prep at work to ensure we have stock of the technology products we sell - the distributor we use has held less than normal due to COVID and now we may have issues with delays bringing it in. The flow of people will be more of a hassle for us, we have had people across from EU countries, and sent some in return, to fill positions that came up - it's great to have people from within the business, and for our people to be able to live and work abroad for a while.

On a personal level the hassles of EHICs ending, new driving licenses needed, immigration controls, import taxes, (even) bigger queues, etc is going to be a bind. Living with a foreigner as I do, with her kids having joint nationality but her being from an EU country, and our frequent short trips abroad, its going to be more of a PITA for us than most.

However..... However.... For the first time in a while I'm going to stick my neck out and risk the likes of Racing spitting coffee all over their keyboards and giving themselves RSI in their speed and ferocity of written response: I'm coming around to the medium/long term economic benefits of no deal. My voting is generally skewed towards economic growth and we have for some time had economists telling us that stability is key to growth. Successive shocks of Brexit, a possible minority government, a now probable (some time) Scottish independence, then the massive hammer blow of COVID have forced companies to get off their arses and manage change. Really, properly, not just whine about the possibility.

I was reading only yesterday in The Economist that companies have had to embrace rapid (often technological) change and that this will lead to many permanent changes, and very possibly a productivity boom - previously, especially in Europe, productivity was in something of a crisis. Looking at their list of things most companies are now rushing to adopt (Cloud computing, IoT, AI, cybersecurity, ecommerce)- these innovations are not things that would be easily kept out by Europe from the UK - cloud computing and the like can be flexible to get around simple import duties. Look at how Google and Facebook manage their affairs. I think they are things we will do better than the likes of the Italians, French, and Spanish, who would rather throw good money after bad, than adjust. We have the opportunity to massively incentivise foreign (mostly US in these technologies) investment here, like the Celtic Tiger economy, but on steroids. That's just one example - financial markets see huge opportunities for growth too if we can set our own rules. It would be disruptive and wreck some current markets but I'm excited about the opportunity to become an immense Dubai on the edge of Europe, speaking English but in a European time zone and with easy physical and cultural access to Europe.

Right now the Germans and Dutch are being pragmatic as always. The French (and probably others) are potentially forcing a no-deal over issues that are economic minnows (see what I did there? Fishing, minnows..... I'll get my coat). No deal would cause a lot of short term issues and bad headlines and so on. But a deal makes less sense in many ways - why go through all this hassle of leaving, to keep things much the same? If we are given the chance to totally re-position ourselves (which would be driven by business, not government, and thus far more likely to work) then I think the medium to long term will be very good for us, and very bad for the likes of the French - and the European experiment in general.

I just finished reading a book about the SAS in the Falklands by (later) General Cedric Delves, then the commander of the SAS squadron that saw the most action. He said "war is 9/10ths the management of cock-ups". There is that old adage about no plan surviving contact with the enemy. It's true - it never goes to plan, neither does business. The economic structure we expected to remain, is changing. We can cry about that, or we can adjust to the new reality, seize the massive new opportunities available to us, and win. Fortunes will be made, and I'm willing to bet more here, than in places like France....

I like your optimism but I really don't think this is true for the majority of companies, especially the smaller ones who don't have a whole team dedicated to 'Brexit, what if?' scenarios.

I hope to be proven wrong and I know that at some point we will see impressive gains but I have the depressing assumption that those who see the biggest rewards will be the same ones as normal and that for the rest of us any gains will only come after a long period of, well, definitely not gains.

Headline article on Times website now:

"British airlines would be banned from flying to European destinations unless Boris Johnson agrees to EU “level playing field” demands in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Brussels warned today.

In a move to ratchet up the pressure on the prime minister, the EU published unilateral no-deal contingency plans deliberately designed to be more unpalatable than a trade agreement on Brussels’ existing terms.

The documents reveal that the EU would insist that the UK continues to follow European competition and level playing field rules as the price of allowing planes to fly or British lorries to continue to operate in the bloc.

The EU is also warning that it could ban British airlines from serving European destinations unless Mr Johnson allows European fishing vessels access to UK waters.

Meanwhile it emerged that British travellers could be barred from visiting EU countries from January 1 under the bloc’s existing Covid-19 restrictions."

Ursula's trying to turn the thumbscrews on BoJo...

Reading that, I just want to stick two fingers up at them and walk away. I know we were idiots to vote for Brexit but they really are bastards that need a good kicking.

I think the message is: a "no deal" isn't just about Britain having the ability to go off and sign individual trading deals with Guinea Bissau and whatever other colossal economies the FCDO has managed to cut a deal with but it's about all the other legislative issues that have been in place and constantly developed during the period of EU membership. The Brexit message was delivered pre-vote as being a thing of so simplicitly - that the EU take every opportunity, even at this late stage, to remind Britain that it is anything but is not the fault of the EU as both parties knew it wasn't a breezy stroll in the park.

I seem to recall very early law module lectures advising me that contracts, or agreements, were never a single sided issue and there had to be a thing called "consideration" given by all parties.

Isn't it that the UK believes it is pursuing a path outside the EU that it believes will be more prosperous or more democratic whilst the EU is simply being spiteful?

To the layman Its just descended into a pissing contest. A game for the players involved and each wanting to demonstrate how large their cranium is. Of course there is no benefit to us islanders or members of the EU states as the message of getting a good deal for everyone involved has been lost.

Unlike you (and I) a lot of people in this country don't feel like the EU benefited them, in fact in many cases they feel it affected them adversely. It's such a shame those people were not listened too but hopefully now they'll benefit and I'm prepared to wait in line a little longer at the airport if they do.