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Post by johnc on Nov 18, 2020 16:58:18 GMT
I noticed that no-one has even given the Elephant an acknowledgement. So WTF are we going to do in 2030? Is it manageable, is this the start of a restriction on movement, is Boris deluded and is road pricing just around the corner? Answers in any way you like!
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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2020 17:29:10 GMT
Road pricing has been coming for a long time, that and the slippery road to the have and have not roads. I reckon that by 2030 there will be no room on motorways for any other than the rich and notorious. I doubt I will be allowed to drive on A roads by then, even if I am still driving. Motorways for the rich and A roads with road trains for the average.
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Post by ChrisM on Nov 18, 2020 17:47:05 GMT
We're all doomed. We cannot leave our own homes except for "essential journeys" to buy food or medication etc, so who's going to need a car with a range greater than 50 miles anyway? I am not sure how the government thinks it will fund any road pricing scheme since it's already in severe financial difficulties because of the furlough scheme etc, or how there will be a network of recharging points for hybrid and fully electric vehicles. Take my younger daughter for example, she lives in rented accommodation with no possibility of parking outside the place where she lives, so home charging is out. Where she works.. they'd have to install charging stations by the dozen, maybe, so I can't see that happening, and being single she would be lucky to find a free charging point at the supermarket where she does her once-a-week food shop, and isn't in there long enough for a car charge to be effective. I fear that Mike is right, and motoring "for pleasure" will become the preserve of the rich.
Also - imagine with road pricing.... if there is an accident that causes a road closure, the lawyers will have a field day sueing on behalf of all those who had to drive numerous extra miles on diversion routes and having to pay to do so - wanting to claim back those extra costs.
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Post by LandieMark on Nov 18, 2020 17:59:53 GMT
They aren't banning the sale of used cars, but I bet they will levy taxes on used IC cars.
Who knows? Like Chris mentioned above, every street will need at least one charging station per dwelling. The logistics are mind boggling.
Maybe I should train to become a chargi g point installer.
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Post by PG on Nov 18, 2020 18:33:36 GMT
I think we were all avoiding making eye contact with the elephant. On the internal combustion engine the argument has been lost. Regardless that transport is just one of several sources of pollution, it is the one that gets the focus. Because I am afraid that far too many policy makers (influenced by the green lobbyists and their big-city centric view of the world) see motoring as a "choice". People have to heat their homes, they have to have hot water and food. But as public transport is available, driving is a choice. A point of view which is of course utter crap. What car we drive might be a choice, but the need for one is not.
Whilst I really doubt that the charging infrastructure or affordability will be there by 2030 to make this realistic, other countries are also looking at the same date (Germany) or even earlier (2025 in Netherlands). So I suppose that if that is the direction of travel, motor manufacturers have due warning to get their collective shit together on this from a production point of view. And that PHEV's are to be allowed until 2035 can only be a good thing to ease the inevitable pain. For if push came to shove, that 2035 date could be slipped out, but the headline "2030 ICE ban" can still be implemented. And road pricing is an inevitability to replace the billions of lost fuel duty.
Or maybe, now that the goal has been set (with just the date varying across developed countries), all the research will shift to motors and batteries and there will be huge technological leaps forward that make it all possible and we are all worrying needlessly. Humankind's ingenuity is at its best when the chips are down.
I guess the big questions is how will the transition be managed. That's going to be the next elephant in the room. But I am sure that inevitably, motoring is going to get more expensive. And that's going to be tough for a lot of people.
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Post by racingteatray on Nov 18, 2020 18:35:05 GMT
The logistics on getting the charging infrastructure up to scratch in 10 years are, um, daunting to put it politely.
More to the point, the world is a large place and I'm damned if I can see why I should forever have to live in this small, cold and damp corner of it, especially if they start making it increasingly tedious.
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Post by johnc on Nov 18, 2020 18:56:59 GMT
The logistics on getting the charging infrastructure up to scratch in 10 years are, um, daunting to put it politely. More to the point, the world is a large place and I'm damned if I can see why I should forever have to live in this small, cold and damp corner of it, especially if they start making it increasingly tedious. Does your firm have an Italian office or could you offer to set it up? My wife keeps mentioning Spain!!! |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2020 19:00:05 GMT
Line up, line up, get your little yellow pill here....... Exit but on a larger scale.
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Post by Roadrunner on Nov 18, 2020 19:52:34 GMT
My hope is that hydrogen technology will make the breakthrough to mainstream and we can ditch the cables and polluting batteries.
Road pricing will unfairly discriminate against those who live and work in rural areas, but they might not be able to supply a journey tracking black box for a 1920s car with 6 volt electrics, so I might be OK.
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Post by bryan on Nov 18, 2020 20:04:47 GMT
Hoping the same for an 89 911.....
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Post by ChrisM on Nov 18, 2020 20:20:56 GMT
Going back to the title of this thread.... perhaps we will all have to ride elephants around in order to travel anywhere?
The pollution will probably be worse than vehicle exhausts......
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Post by racingteatray on Nov 18, 2020 20:40:07 GMT
The logistics on getting the charging infrastructure up to scratch in 10 years are, um, daunting to put it politely. More to the point, the world is a large place and I'm damned if I can see why I should forever have to live in this small, cold and damp corner of it, especially if they start making it increasingly tedious. Does your firm have an Italian office or could you offer to set it up? My wife keeps mentioning Spain!!! We do indeed have offices in both Milan and Rome. |
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Post by chipbutty on Nov 18, 2020 20:53:22 GMT
I am sure I have read that the 2030 deadline excludes MHEV as well as PHEV, but I wouldn’t worry about it too much.
This government are so utterly bereft of talent that there is no way on god’s earth that this will be physically possible to achieve.
Probably won’t stop them ploughing on regardless and completely buggering everything up.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2020 20:57:02 GMT
Going back to the title of this thread.... perhaps we will all have to ride elephants around in order to travel anywhere? The pollution will probably be worse than vehicle exhausts...... You can at least put THOSE emissions on your flowerbeds........ Sorry, organic hemp, doh...... |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2020 23:02:32 GMT
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Post by Sav on Nov 18, 2020 23:16:54 GMT
Its a shame that synthetic fuels are not considered in the equation. It wouldn't have the same infrastructure requirement, and therefore cost the taxpayer.
Road-pricing seems particularly ill-timed now. Employers and millions of workers will see that as more of a reason to WFH, something that is already happening more because of the pandemic. Sure, you'll have people who will absolutely have to use the roads. But there will be millions of people who will treat it as optional.
Will people want to take an EV for a spin, just for the sake of it? Perhaps they will, but I think the government risks losing the passion for cars, and consequently a lot of lost revenue for the exchequer
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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2020 23:22:53 GMT
Stop I say, STOP. Logic man, STOP using it. We are after all talking about government mandates and the oiks that advise on that sort of thing. All to the betterment of their portfolio's and friends in business.
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Post by Tim on Nov 19, 2020 9:06:32 GMT
I listened to a bit on the radio yesterday evening where a couple of people, one a government adviser, were talking about pollution and said the focus has to be on transport, particularly road travel where other alternatives are available.
No mention of targeting people flying to Spain for a week on the piss on a £50 return flight or anything about houses that have central heating and a fashionable log burner that's entirely for show but a major source of pollution.
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Post by michael on Nov 19, 2020 11:05:12 GMT
The charging infrastructure is one thing but how are we planning to power this shift? Windmills look right-on but in the real world we need nuclear and I doubt we're going to be able to get the number needed online in less than a decade.
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Post by Big Blue on Nov 19, 2020 11:53:10 GMT
Another call out for the actual provision of electricity: no hope on this scale at 2020 technology levels but the supposition is that technology and industry, once the catalyst of public policy has been set in motion, will fill the gap in pursuit of profit. This will be by a combination ultra efficient PV cells; ultra high capacity batteries and plant based fuels or hydrogen. The main issue I have is that as usual this is dealing with the headline grabbing, easy to see combustion engine pollution, not the difficult to avoid, hard to see and never understood aspect of manufacturing batteries, extracting the materials for them, the pollutants involved in discarding them, the huge cost (and therefore commercial inefficiency) of nuclear power stations, the pollutants involved there that 20+ generations will have to deal with.
All that said there will be a generation in 2070 that thinks the same of us as we thought of the Victorians with their smoking mills, 17-hour-day-7 days a week work life, small children up chimneys, workhouses. We are becoming the luddidites I'm afraid.
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Post by Eff One on Nov 19, 2020 12:02:38 GMT
No mention of targeting people flying to Spain for a week on the piss on a £50 return flight or anything about houses that have central heating and a fashionable log burner that's entirely for show but a major source of pollution. I did read that all homes with gas powered central heating will have to switch to some sort of electric system by 2023, which was news to me. |
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Post by Martin on Nov 19, 2020 12:04:04 GMT
No mention of targeting people flying to Spain for a week on the piss on a £50 return flight or anything about houses that have central heating and a fashionable log burner that's entirely for show but a major source of pollution. I did read that all homes with gas powered central heating will have to switch to some sort of electric system by 2023, which was news to me. I thought it was for new builds only? |
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Post by Tim on Nov 19, 2020 12:04:48 GMT
No mention of targeting people flying to Spain for a week on the piss on a £50 return flight or anything about houses that have central heating and a fashionable log burner that's entirely for show but a major source of pollution. I did read that all homes with gas powered central heating will have to switch to some sort of electric system by 2023, which was news to me. One of the people on the radio last night said that suggestion was inaccurate. I suspect that if the date is correct then it's likely to apply to new build homes. |
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Post by Tim on Nov 19, 2020 12:08:15 GMT
Another call out for the actual provision of electricity: no hope on this scale at 2020 technology levels but the supposition is that technology and industry, once the catalyst of public policy has been set in motion, will fill the gap in pursuit of profit. This will be by a combination ultra efficient PV cells; ultra high capacity batteries and plant based fuels or hydrogen. The main issue I have is that as usual this is dealing with the headline grabbing, easy to see combustion engine pollution, not the difficult to avoid, hard to see and never understood aspect of manufacturing batteries, extracting the materials for them, the pollutants involved in discarding them, the huge cost (and therefore commercial inefficiency) of nuclear power stations, the pollutants involved there that 20+ generations will have to deal with. Don't forget the pollution caused by shipping all this stuff - often unnecessarily - around the world. e.g. there's a big offshore windfarm going into the Forth estuary (above and to the right of Edinburgh). There's a company that could do a lot of the work in Burntisland (opposite bank of the river from Edinburgh) It seems that most of the work of constructing these will be carried out in, I think, China before shipping the damn things halfway round the world. Crazy! I'm sure it's not as simple as all that but you get the drift. |
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Post by michael on Nov 19, 2020 12:25:00 GMT
The UK has lowered it's emmissions by exporting manufacturing to the far east. The effect of this is that overall emissions are higher and jobs have been lost BUT the government can say we're green. This is fucking stupid.
Windmills are another virtue signalling own-goal of the green agenda. Onshore at least, they will never recover their production costs and they have quite a short life span. Oh, and they can't be recycled. But they look all eco and that's all that matters. If people honestly cared about the environment and reducing CO2 they'd champion nuclear.
Don't get me started on green taxation either which is largely immoral.
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Post by Boxer6 on Nov 19, 2020 12:47:54 GMT
Another call out for the actual provision of electricity: no hope on this scale at 2020 technology levels but the supposition is that technology and industry, once the catalyst of public policy has been set in motion, will fill the gap in pursuit of profit. This will be by a combination ultra efficient PV cells; ultra high capacity batteries and plant based fuels or hydrogen. The main issue I have is that as usual this is dealing with the headline grabbing, easy to see combustion engine pollution, not the difficult to avoid, hard to see and never understood aspect of manufacturing batteries, extracting the materials for them, the pollutants involved in discarding them, the huge cost (and therefore commercial inefficiency) of nuclear power stations, the pollutants involved there that 20+ generations will have to deal with. Don't forget the pollution caused by shipping all this stuff - often unnecessarily - around the world. e.g. there's a big offshore windfarm going into the Forth estuary (above and to the right of Edinburgh). There's a company that could do a lot of the work in Burntisland (opposite bank of the river from Edinburgh) It seems that most of the work of constructing these will be carried out in, I think, China before shipping the damn things halfway round the world. Crazy! I'm sure it's not as simple as all that but you get the drift. The UK has lowered it's emmissions by exporting manufacturing to the far east. The effect of this is that overall emissions are higher and jobs have been lost BUT the government can say we're green. This is fucking stupid. Windmills are another virtue signalling own-goal of the green agenda. Onshore at least, they will never recover their production costs and they have quite a short life span. Oh, and they can't be recycled. But they look all eco and that's all that matters. If people honestly cared about the environment and reducing CO2 they'd champion nuclear. Don't get me started on green taxation either which is largely immoral. Something I found out only recently is, the cores of wind turbine blades (as manufactured in China anyway) are soft Balsa. The knock-on effect on users of said wood such as model builders and the like is huge - it's now almost impossible to get, and even if you can it's extortionately priced. |
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Nov 19, 2020 12:56:22 GMT
Don't forget the pollution caused by shipping all this stuff - often unnecessarily - around the world. e.g. there's a big offshore windfarm going into the Forth estuary (above and to the right of Edinburgh). There's a company that could do a lot of the work in Burntisland (opposite bank of the river from Edinburgh) It seems that most of the work of constructing these will be carried out in, I think, China before shipping the damn things halfway round the world. Crazy! I'm sure it's not as simple as all that but you get the drift The company BiFab, I've dealt with them in the past - decent company. They could do a lot of the work but they will require some State aid to provide financial guarantees. Under EU rules this is not allowed so, unfortunately, 500 people will lose their jobs when it closes. |
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Post by PG on Nov 19, 2020 13:07:00 GMT
Two interesting article in the Telegraph this morning. One looking at the politics that included this section -
To some, driving an electric car is akin to riding an over-priced go-kart; to others, it is like sitting on a giant iPhone. They are fun, with great acceleration and astonishing technology, but lack the romance of an old-fashioned combustion engine. They are the vegan option: increasingly delicious, like the best falafel with hummus in pitta, but still a shawarma short of the full meal.
Yet I am a convert, for one simple reason: electric cars and similar innovations are our best hope of saving the consumer society, one of civilisation’s greatest achievements, from the clutches of the hard-Left environmentalists. In the end, when their limitations are resolved, they will become motorists’ best friends.
Why? The green agenda has triumphed, in the sense that cultural, political, educational and corporate elites, in the US, UK and every European country, are all in favour of decarbonisation. Opponents have been routed, with almost no chance of a way back.
So the only real question, in practice, is how will we go green, and how quickly? Will the authoritarian hair-shirt, command and control, Stone Age tendency triumph? Will cars be banned, people forced to cycle, airports be shut, and the vast majority of the population’s quality of life trashed in a debilitating culture war waged by an army of puritanical, elitist, neo-luddite, collectivist eco-warriors?
Or will we preserve individual choice and autonomy by reconciling greenery and progress, with electric propulsion, carbon capture, new materials, innovative decomposition techniques and novel but ever-cheaper energy sources allowing everything to continue almost as before, albeit in a way that emits less carbon?
This is one of the greatest questions of our time.
And one that was quite upbeat about the impending changes -
The world is in the midst of an arms race in green technology. Any large industrial state that fails to grasp the nettle on electrification and hydrogen will be left behind.
America and Europe are both about to launch muscular eco-industrial strategies. China is hellbent on dominance of renewables and green hi-tech, not to save the planet but to achieve economic supremacy. We have moved a long way from the era when renewables were the preserve of ecological Leftists.
It is why Tesla is now worth more than the European car industry, and why Denmark’s wind pioneer Orsted may soon be Europe’s most valuable energy company. Big Money is pulling forward the trend direction of the 2020s, and writing off lost causes.
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....One thing you will not find on the Humber is many people with a bad word to say for offshore wind. The technology has brought a miraculous regeneration of neglected coastal towns. Grimsby was home to the world’s biggest fishing fleet as recently as the 1950s. A decade ago it was down to four boats. The vibrant Casbah was a ghost town. The community had hit absolute bottom, portrayed in Sacha Baron’s Cohen’s film Grimsby as a pit of social decay and alcoholic misery.
Today the town is thriving as the operational hub for the vast Hornsea wind farms. Across the river in Hull, a Siemens Gamesa plant makes giant rotor blades in the biggest manufacturing plant built in this country this century. It anchors a reborn shipping industry that services the offshore turbines.
The great green switch is a “cost” only if you are a member of the economic flat earth society.
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Post by ChrisM on Nov 19, 2020 14:35:15 GMT
The UK has lowered it's emissions by exporting manufacturing to the far east. The effect of this is that overall emissions are higher and jobs have been lost BUT the government can say we're green. This is fucking stupid. This ^ in spades Governments do not look at the overall pollution picture when praising electric vehicles, there is still a huge amount of pollution generated wherever the electricity is produced, plus all the losses associated with transmission, although that may be less than the pollution generated by tankers filling up the tanks at every petrol/diesel station. And what about all the pollution caused by mining all the precious metals etc used in the batteries themselves? |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2020 15:29:36 GMT
And the fact that said batteries, once depleted, can't be recycled.
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