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Post by michael on Aug 28, 2019 11:53:05 GMT
Tesla got people out of their S-Class but the Porsche will get them out the Tesla. I just don't think the Tesla stacks up well enough against the new competition.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Aug 28, 2019 12:03:43 GMT
Tesla got people out of their S-Class but the Porsche will get them out the Tesla. I just don't think the Tesla stacks up well enough against the new competition. Yes Porsche is going to get people out of their Model 3s.  Model S? Perhaps but saying that a car that hasn't even been released yet and will cost 50% more will get people out of a 7 year old model is not a great advert for Porsche. |
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Post by michael on Aug 28, 2019 12:08:41 GMT
Why would we be talking about the Model 3 in comparison to this? The Model S (of which no replacement is on the horizon) will be hammered by this and the wave of competition into the electric market. The Model 3 will compete with the Volkswagen ID3 and I'd be surprised if consumers prefer the Tesla but time will tell.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Aug 28, 2019 12:16:26 GMT
Why would we be talking about the Model 3 in comparison to this? The Model S (of which no replacement is on the horizon) will be hammered by this and the wave of competition into the electric market. The Model 3 will compete with the Volkswagen ID3 and I'd be surprised if consumers prefer the Tesla but time will tell. I believe your comment was "can we assume Tesla is finished"? |
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Post by michael on Aug 28, 2019 12:22:09 GMT
I still think that will be the case; mega factory or not. The Porsche represents a breadth of competition in the electric market the Tesla hasn't yet faced and I simply can't see them being able to compete in the showroom.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Aug 28, 2019 12:24:36 GMT
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Post by michael on Aug 28, 2019 12:31:08 GMT
I can see the relevance of the iPhone comparison when Tesla was the disrupter in the internal combustion market but I'm not sure what edge you think it has against the new generation of electric cars?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2019 13:36:46 GMT
If the pic on the front of Autocar is anything to go by it's going to be bloody ugly!
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Aug 28, 2019 13:42:00 GMT
I can see the relevance of the iPhone comparison when Tesla was the disrupter in the internal combustion market but I'm not sure what edge you think it has against the new generation of electric cars? What makes you think these are a new generation? In what way do they move the game on? As I say, they're desperately playing catch up and when they do see significant numbers into production it is likely Tesla will have moved forward again. Or ran out of money. |
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Post by michael on Aug 28, 2019 13:55:13 GMT
I can see the relevance of the iPhone comparison when Tesla was the disrupter in the internal combustion market but I'm not sure what edge you think it has against the new generation of electric cars? What makes you think these are a new generation? In what way do they move the game on? As I say, they're desperately playing catch up and when they do see significant numbers into production it is likely Tesla will have moved forward again. Or ran out of money. They're a new generation of electric cars because that's exactly they are. Going back to my point you quote, what do you see as Teslas edge right now? I'm curious as I genuinely don't see why an existing 3 series buyer is going to go for the rather ropey build quality of a Tesla that was a disrupter 7 years ago over one of the new wave of products from the established manufacturers. |
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Post by PetrolEd on Aug 28, 2019 14:06:31 GMT
Remember as well that there are actually some people who are interested in cars that have no desire at all for a Porsche. Oxymoron alert.  |
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Aug 28, 2019 14:13:31 GMT
They're a new generation of electric cars because that's exactly they are. But in what way? Just because they came after Tesla doesn't mean they are better. what is new about their technology? Are they cheaper? is their range greater? Do they charge faster? What new patents do they hold? If there is a new generation of electric cars why do you think it will come from the old sclerotic car manufacturers with their roots in the last century? What about the Chinese? |
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Post by michael on Aug 28, 2019 14:17:24 GMT
I'll assume your argument about semantics of what constitutes a new generation of models is your way of declining to make the case for the edge Tesla has over these cars  To go back to the original point about if they'll finish Tesla, time will settle that discussion. |
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Aug 28, 2019 14:28:22 GMT
I'll assume your argument about semantics of what constitutes a new generation of models is your way of declining to make the case for the edge Tesla has over these cars To go back to the original point about if they'll finish Tesla, time will settle that discussion. The edge the Tesla has is the Supercharger network, the proven battery technology, the over the air updates, superior self driving software, the large and established customer base, being the recognised leader in electric vehicle technology, the nimbleness of a new disruptor without historical debt and commitments... |
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Post by Tim on Aug 28, 2019 14:33:16 GMT
Remember as well that there are actually some people who are interested in cars that have no desire at all for a Porsche. Oxymoron alert. Ha, ok a NEW Porsche (apart from one of the really unobtainable ones!). I don't see how Porsche releasing the Taycan at £120k will see the end of the Tesla Model S. Either Tesla will reduce their price or will come out with something new. I'm sure the market for cars costing £70 - 120k (although be ready for the Taycans in the mags to be on the far side of £150k with a couple of options) can currently stand more than 1 manufacturer so when people are looking to change from a high spec ICE powered 5 series, E Class' A8s, etc to something electric they will be looking at a variety of options. Even if all of these buyers wanted a Taycan I doubt Porsche will be able to supply enough. |
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Post by Tim on Aug 28, 2019 14:35:05 GMT
I'll assume your argument about semantics of what constitutes a new generation of models is your way of declining to make the case for the edge Tesla has over these cars To go back to the original point about if they'll finish Tesla, time will settle that discussion. The edge the Tesla has is the Supercharger network, the proven battery technology, the over the air updates, superior self driving software, the large and established customer base, being the recognised leader in electric vehicle technology, the nimbleness of a new disruptor without historical debt and commitments... They don't need an 'edge' they just need to be in the market, which I think they already are. Their only disadvantage, as far as I can tell, is the lack of an established premium badge. Given the market will be for tens of thousands of cars I'm sure Tesla will do fine. |
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Post by michael on Aug 28, 2019 14:40:55 GMT
It's encouraging for Tesla that so many have faith in its future - I hear they're looking for investors money.
I think when it comes to the average buyer they're not going to assess the product as they see it in the showroom and Teslas are pretty damned poor. The perceived quality does not stand close scrutiny and that's what the new generation of electric cars are really going to bring. I stand by my view that Tesla was a disrupter a few years ago but its time has passed, I don't think they'll survive the onslaught.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Aug 28, 2019 14:48:14 GMT
If quality and reliability were the indicators of success then Land Rover would be fucked. Fortunately, there are other intangibles which give them desirability.
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Post by michael on Aug 28, 2019 14:52:14 GMT
As a static object the interior of a Land Rover feel expensive, a Tesla does not and I think that's their biggest issues in terms of competing with newer rivals - even the Jaguar. I can see why early adopters would put up with that and see beyond the interior but not the regular buyer.
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Post by Tim on Aug 28, 2019 15:47:17 GMT
I can see why early adopters would put up with that and see beyond the interior but not the regular buyer. So why would a regular buyer put up with unreliability in, say, a Land Rover (I'm only using them because Bob did, it's nothing personal )? |
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Post by michael on Aug 28, 2019 15:58:25 GMT
Because they want a Land Rover either for what it can do or what it is. Teslas problem is that more offerings can do the same (be electric specifically) but also do the day to day stuff better.
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Post by Tim on Aug 28, 2019 16:02:37 GMT
But that applies to LR products as well which is effectively what I said earlier - the buyer will want a choice and some of them will go for a Taycan and some for a Tesla, others will go for the next Jag XJ (whicjh I read is going to be electric), etc, etc.
Tesla were only selling 100k cars prior to the Model 3 and I can see there being enough demand to continue with that.
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Post by michael on Aug 28, 2019 16:06:14 GMT
The specific problem with a Tesla is it feels cheap. It's that that I think customers are going to most struggle with so instead go for the more regular rivals. The evidence from Norway seems to suggest the Tesla market share has been destroyed by the Audi entrant alone.
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Post by Ben on Aug 28, 2019 16:29:36 GMT
I kinda see Michael's point, in a certain way. There's also the point that Tesla has been mostly successful in markets where there are huge incentives for EVs (Norway), and once those incentives are taken away (Hong Kong) or non-existent (Singapore, India), Tesla has no standing.
For brands like Porsche, they do not need to rely on EV incentives as much because they can charge the premium they normally charge. To many potential Taycan owners it will be just another Porsche, just with a different form of propulsion.
In any case I'll be at the official launch event next week so I'll try to find out more. It's certainly shaping up to be an intriguing vehicle.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Aug 28, 2019 17:17:45 GMT
The specific problem with a Tesla is it feels cheap. It's that that I think customers are going to most struggle with so instead go for the more regular rivals. The evidence from Norway seems to suggest the Tesla market share has been destroyed by the Audi entrant alone. Have you been to Norway recently? They love their Teslas. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2019 17:25:39 GMT
That's because ICE cars have astronomical taxes applied to them...
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Post by PG on Aug 28, 2019 21:18:01 GMT
I think Tesla have two key differentiators and two key issues.
The differentiators are firstly the Supercharger network. Every review of a BEV other than a Tesla at the moment seems to spend a lot of the print area talking about the recharging infrastructure - (or lack of). And secondly they don't have any ICE history, so they have not got to balance that fulcrum of maintaining the ICE lines to keep cash coming in while pushing BEV. Mainstream manufacturers have got to play both sets of fiddles for a good few years yet. If their BEV's are too good (or more likely too competitive financially) and people stop buying their ICE lines, they are in deep trouble. Hyundai had that issue with the Kona and so they had to make it hard to get by limiting supply.
And their two issues are firstly that some markets still have a strong degree of brand loyalty / snobbery (i.e Europe). So if ze Germans get their BEV shit together, people who might have bought a /Tesla could well go for a Porsche / Audi / BMW BEV. But the US is by far Tesla's biggest market and people there have less brand snobbery - as Lexus' success in the US but relative failure in Europe shows (or Infiniti for an even worse case). And secondly they don't have any cash cows, so like all disruptors, can they become more mainstream before they run out of cash.
So how all these four factors balance out dictates which side of the Tesla are doomed or not debate you land on.
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Post by PetrolEd on Aug 29, 2019 8:49:02 GMT
Its the older manufacturers lack of investment in charging points that will hold back their success in the short term. I guess they see charging points as someone else's problem/opportunity and not something they need to get involved with.
Tesla has this covered in part although I haven't seen a massive rise in Tesla stations since the 3 went on sale so maybe they are taking the same mindset. All I know is at the current stage making the jump to electric still seems way too early
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2019 9:57:04 GMT
Its the older manufacturers lack of investment in charging points that will hold back their success in the short term. I guess they see charging points as someone else's problem/opportunity and not something they need to get involved with. Well, they don't feel the need to build a petrol station for every 100 cars they sell either... |
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Post by PetrolEd on Aug 29, 2019 9:59:58 GMT
Its the older manufacturers lack of investment in charging points that will hold back their success in the short term. I guess they see charging points as someone else's problem/opportunity and not something they need to get involved with. Well, they don't feel the need to build a petrol station for every 100 cars they sell either... Which was kind of the point. They still have that old mindset whilst Tesla approaches the subject with a clean page |
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