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Post by garry on May 22, 2020 11:22:17 GMT
When I was younger I was in a high profile dot com business. We floated on the Nasdaq, price spiralled upwards. I used to meet analysts at roadshow events. These guys were apparently advising investors. For the most part they had no clue what we did (we made network management solutions), but they’d happily spew out advice. My takeaway from my experience there was you’d be just as well picking a company name from a tombola as listen to them.
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Post by garry on May 22, 2020 7:35:52 GMT
Will it register everyone with a bluetooth signal or only those who have downloaded the app, or even only those with the app who are contacts in your phone? You’ll need to download the app
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Post by garry on May 22, 2020 6:48:50 GMT
The government seem to be putting alot of emphasis of this track and trace app to help control Coronavirus. They've employed 24,000(!) contact tracers and will roll out the app in June. Surely the app is a complete waste of time:
1. It will use bluetooth to work out who you've come into contact with. I'm pretty sure bluetooth doesn't give directional or signal strength data meaning you can't look at signal attenuation or triangulation to pinpoint bluetooth devices. So, anyone you come within circa 30 feet of will be a contact. One person travelling across London in rush hour will come within 30 feet of hundreds of people. Each of those contacts will do the same, and so on. I'd have thought that by the evening rush hour on day 1 it would be reporting most people had been within 30 feet of someone who'd been within 30 feet of someone who had the virus. Actually, thinking about this a bit more, the app relies on the user reporting that they have symptoms. So a more likely scenario is that someone travels in and out to work for 3 days, feels ill, gets tested and the app will contact trace 3 days worth of commuter data.
2. I think it's pretty well established that the majority of coronavirus cases are asymptomatic. This isn't going to help.
3. It needs to be installed. Are people really going to do it?
So in summary, if we all use it it will say we've all been in contact with someone (and therefore be useless), but in all likelihood most people wont install it and it will fade to nothing by mid June.
It sounds like a really bad idea on Dragons Den. Am I missing something?
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Post by garry on May 21, 2020 18:17:31 GMT
Cheers Franki. Maybe I need to bite the bullet and go and have a decent go in a new one, the last I drove was quite a while ago and might not've been in the best of health. Obviously that exposes me to the possibility that I might like it and that could lead to wallet meltdown. It's very personal this stuff,there isn't a right or wrong ,and if we all liked the same thing we would all be driving the same car which would be mightily boring.I think its the useabilty of them,if you go for a quick blast for example a ferrari may impress you more initially ,but then you would find the ferrari too wide on good roads,etc and you would find yourself looking at it in the garage more than driving it,the 911 you drive,to the shops,to the track,on the track then drive home ,there are very very few cars that can do that. And the boxsters and caymans are just as good in many respects but they are kept in check by Porsche branding philosophy. And I may get slapped by the driving gods but I am not a fan of the older 911s ,some seem to think that displaying huge skill to keep a car on the road at modest speeds means a car is great,I think that is a deeply flawed car. Agreed. One of the best features of a modern 911 is the predictability. I’ve never had an unexpected ‘moment’ in one. Sounds dull to some I guess but it adds to the confidence you can drive one with. I’ve got a mate with an early f type. Don’t know if it’s that particular car, the tyres or normal for a rwd f type but that car on a wet country road is a handful. That can be fun for 5 minutes but no joy on a rainy November night when you just want to get home intact.
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Post by garry on May 20, 2020 12:18:30 GMT
I can't think of a more unpleasant couple. Theresa May and Alex Salmond. Donald Trump and Angela Merkel. The Health secretary for Belgium should get a special mention here. I’m not sure who I’d pair her with.
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Post by garry on May 20, 2020 10:24:52 GMT
Are you ordering one then Martin?? I'll take that yellow one in the last picture - yum! I know the latest 911's got mixed reviews, but they look incredible... It was in the plan for the next fleet change, as we were both keen to get back into a Porsche, but that will need to be pushed back now due to the other new arrival. Although he would fit in the back of a 911....but it's not right for now and I can't justify spending that much with all the other expected outgoings. Maybe in 4-5 years time when my maintenance payments stop. In all honesty a 911 with a baby would be a pain. I’ve managed to get all sorts in mine (a mountain bike, a Christmas tree!) But I wouldn’t want to mange the daily hassle of getting a baby in the back seat. It’s brilliant in the back for kids up to 5 feet tall, but no more than that. So your 5 yr plan would be perfect - you’d have a circa 5 yr window where the child would be perfect Porsche size!
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Post by garry on May 20, 2020 9:37:47 GMT
The front cover of the latest issue of CAR magazine proclaims "The man with your dream job. Meet Porsche's design boss" and the contents page says "Coffee with Porsche's design genius Mauer". I can only assume that all translates as 'this man's a genius, he got your dream job of being extremely well paid for doing pretty much nothing all day'. Where is the genius in taking an existing design, adding a few industry standard tweaks - some extra (possibly fake) vents, more styling lines and stuff like a full width rear light? That's a serious question. I understand a lot of people like the look and they sell well (in part due to the badge and reputation) but I genuinely struggle to see anything ground breaking. I know where you are coming from. They’re certainly winning no prizes for breakthrough design innovation, but they’ve done a great job in refining the line-up to where it is today. Granted, they took some munters to market in the first place that needed improving, but the current Porsche line-up is a fantastic looking portfolio.
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Post by garry on May 19, 2020 14:53:55 GMT
Is this a negotiating position? I would have thought that the eu would feel some pressure from German manufacturers to get back round the negotiation table.
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Post by garry on May 19, 2020 11:39:58 GMT
Two years ago today I collected the car. Not much to say that hasn't been said before...... I've done just over 48,000 miles (49,200 total as it had done 1k miles when I bought it) which is 7-8k less than expected at this point, most of which is down to CV19 as I was averaging around 28k a year at the end of February. How long do you plan to keep it for? Are there optimal points to change (e.g. before mileage hits 100k)? It’s a lovely car but you really do some mileage! Part of me thinks that in your position I’d buy a 2 yr old mondeo to batter up and down the motorway until it broke (which in all honesty might not be a joy, but it wouldn’t be a chore either), but another part of me (I suspect the part that would win) would think that it was worth the extra spend given how much time I’d be spending in it.
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Post by garry on May 19, 2020 11:16:49 GMT
I did that Autotrader search last week but ended up looking at early 4.2s due to price. I have a suspicion they have hit the bottom of their depreciation curve at around £30k (I think). I can’t see (good ones) dropping any further. I was looking at them 6 years ago and a fairly low mileage 4.2 was £34-36k. Lovely cars, they look and sound great, but needs to be a 4.7 really and they do feel ancient inside with very patchy quality. Not so much of an issue at £30k though I suppose. I found the vantage a disappointment. To my eyes, it’s up there with the best looking cars of all time, but as Martin says, the quality is patchy and everything looks old. The drive was ok, but no more than that - it lacked the delicacy and precision of the 911. No doubt that a vantage is über cool and it feels special just being in an Aston Martin, but I test drove the vantage and went straight back to do the deal on the 911. Still, it’s probably a relatively safe place to put £30k
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Post by garry on May 18, 2020 14:57:30 GMT
One element of social distancing that has not really been addressed (or more importantly, acknowledged) is… what about all the single people ? Even if we ignore all the prof Ferguson’s of the world ( “Open relationship “ practitioners and dirt bags) – is it even remotely reasonable and realistic to expect single people to live like Monks and Nuns for at least 12 months (or however long this will continue). Based on the small sample of single people I know, they are still going on dates and hiding their sausages with their new friends. This will surely have a significant impact on the overall effectiveness of any distancing measures ? Not just the single people, but what about the swingers, the doggers, the swappers😀 On a more serious note the two people I know who are single (I’m old, I don’t know many single people) are still dating like it’s 2019. The difference being that they don’t meet in public. I guess that adds a risk.
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Post by garry on May 18, 2020 14:50:46 GMT
At least you can without being harangued. Were my mother to still live in her old house, which was not just large but also nicely secluded with neither garden nor driveway visible from the road, and no nosy or difficult neighbours, then we'd be tempted to go and stay for a few days. However, she downsized to a modern house in the middle of a new-build edge-of-village estate about six years ago and you have no privacy on those estates. No-one can come and go without everyone knowing. Normally we see this as a good thing with an aging parent, as it means if anything happens to anyone, lots of people immediately rush to help. Now it's not, because whilst most of the neighbours are pleasant, one of them, whose back garden fence borders the far side of my mother's driveway, is an absolute nightmare and a full-blown lockdown stickler. My brother-in-law went around to drop off some shopping and was standing by his car pulled into the drive, talking to my mother who was at her garden gate on the other side of the car. Crazy neighbour man comes rushing out of his house yelling at them that they were breaching lockdown rules yadda yadda yadda... He later bothered to print off the government's social distancing rules and shoved them through my mother's letterbox. Mum was horrified, although she then quickly discovered he'd done the same to pretty much all the other neighbours at one point or other. Her neighbour on the other side, a retired senior policeman, told her to just ignore the nutter... But in summary, annoyingly, since the nutter's upstairs windows overlook Mum's house, garden and driveway, there's frankly no way we can do a visit until it's actually fully permitted. It would be interesting to ask the crazy neighbour how he managed to do his local leaflet drop whilst obeying lockdown rules.
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Post by garry on May 18, 2020 8:20:37 GMT
I suspect that pedestrian zones and making driving harder will become a "thing" across more towns and cities in the coming years. This will either kill the City as people and businesses move out or it will make the London/rest of country divide even bigger with huge salaries and house prices paid for by large salary increases. Our doctor neighbours (I found out at the weekend) sold their house in London and made enough profit to buy the house next to ours for cash when they moved up. They must have an joint income of £250K+ and no real expenses. I can't blame them for making that lifestyle choice but it doesn't half make me feel that it is all a bit unfair and really isn't sustainable within one country. Politicians need to be very careful with the balance. I would have thought that many businesses will be re thinking their office requirements post lockdown. They might find their staff more receptive to remote working and be eyeing up a big monthly office bill as a target for cost reduction. One of my big customers has its head office in The Shard. The leadership team has found remote working via teams so agreeable that they are questioning the need for an expensive London office. The Mayor of London signalling that he’s going to make it more painful to live and work there might just be the final straw.
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Post by garry on May 17, 2020 15:55:43 GMT
6 miles on the bike is long-ish for me. At 60 and not having been on the bike at all for 3 or 4 years prior to the current pandemic restrictions, and living in an area with plenty of traffic and few cycle lanes, I'm not going to start off by overdoing things 6 miles is great - it’s infinitely better than 0 miles and with a bit of photography too it hopefully lifted your spirits. i took full advantage of the new rules and did a sea swim from Ainsdale beach near Southport yesterday. Three of us swam with one spotter, giving us some semblance of safety. It was great but it was tough - Seven weeks without a swim is probably my longest break in the last ten years. The beach was really busy but it’s really big so there were no worries re social distancing.
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Post by garry on May 14, 2020 10:38:54 GMT
Most service stations are open. I stopped going in public toilets when people kept finding George Michael lurking in them. Chris’s trip now has entertainment too!
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Post by garry on May 14, 2020 9:03:34 GMT
Finding an open public toilet is higher up my list than stopping for a picnic ! Most service stations are open.
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Post by garry on May 13, 2020 21:49:33 GMT
Younger daughter works in a children's nursery..... she had a call today as they are planning to re-open on 1 June. She will be off Furlough after the next Bank Hol, as some of the staff have to go in and start getting the place ready (including her). She's also looking at moving flat ASAP, we are hoping to go view the place she has found on Saturday but of course have to go and come straight back as you can't stop off at a cafe etc for lunch out, as they are all still closed :-( So likely 2 to 3 hours in the car for a 20 minute viewing Take sandwiches, find a park, have a picnic!
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Post by garry on May 13, 2020 9:52:40 GMT
Taken from elsewhere (Telegraph Article). Holy Fuck....................Is this part of the plan - announce fairy tale levels of free money, swiftly followed up by the likely bill ? Or is this government determined to smash the good ship UK onto the rocks, Hollywood styleee ? A confidential Treasury assessment of the coronavirus crisis estimates that it will cost the Exchequer almost £300 billion this year and could require measures including an increase in income tax, the end of the triple lock on state pension increases and a two-year public sector pay freeze.
The Telegraph can reveal that a Treasury document drawn up for Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, sets out a proposed "policy package" of tax increases and spending reductions which may have to be announced within weeks in order to "enhance credibility and boost investor confidence" in the British economy.
The document, dated May 5 and marked "Official – market sensitive", reveals that the "base case scenario" now forecasts that Britain will have a £337 billion budget deficit this year, compared to the forecast £55 billion in March's Budget.
It says tax rises and spending cuts which would raise between £25 billion and £30 billion – equivalent to a 5p increase in the basic rate of income tax – would be needed to fund the increased debt, and presents Mr Sunak with a menu of proposed measures to make up the shortfall.
In the worst case scenario – a so-called "L-shaped economic decline" – the figure would increase to a £516 billion deficit in the current financial year, rising to a cumulative £1.19 trillion over five years. This would require up to £90 billion in annual tax rises and/or spending cuts over the next few years.
Even the best-case V-shaped scenario, in which the economy falls sharply but recovers equally quickly – described as "optimistic" in the document – would lead to a £209 billion deficit this year.
The disclosure of the bleak economic predictions, which would suggest that Britain's finances are in their weakest state since the immediate aftermath of the Second World War, helps explain why the Government is now urging people to return to work where possible.
On Sunday evening, Boris Johnson set out the country's strategy for beginning to exit the lockdown but was criticised by trade unions and opposition MPs for apparently rushing the return to work.
The Treasury document warns ministers that, if Britain's economy does not recover soon, the country could be thrown into a 1976-style "sovereign debt crisis", a situation that led to an international bailout.
On Tuesday, the Chancellor announced that the furlough scheme to subsidise wages would be extended until October but that employers would have to pick up more of the bill from the end of July.
The scheme is now estimated to cost £100 billion, with almost 10 million workers now either paid by the Government-funded initiative or by universal credit.
Mr Sunak is advised that, to "stabilise debts" in the base case scenario, he will have to increase taxes or cut spending to raise between £25 billion and £30 billion a year.
In the worst case scenario, he will have to raise £80 billion to £90 billion a year. He is advised that an announcement on how to fund the huge increase in spending may have to be made imminently, but that the tax and spend changes could be delayed to avoid derailing an economic recovery.
The document says the Chancellor "has indicated a preference for accepting a higher but broadly stable level of debt" after the crisis. However, it adds: "As debt is likely to reach significantly higher levels after the crisis, it will be important to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio and prevent debt from continuing to grow on an unsustainable trajectory."
The document advises Mr Sunak that it is now likely to become necessary to break at least one of the Conservatives' key manifesto pledges not to increase taxes or scrap the triple lock on state pension rises.
It states: "To fill a gap this size [in the public finances] through tax revenue risers would be very challenging without breaking the tax lock. To raise fiscally significant amounts, we would either have to increase rates/thresholds in one of the broad-based taxes (IT, NICS, VAT, CT) or reform one of the biggest tax reliefs (eg pensions tax)."
It adds that it would be "economically better to break the tax lock to achieve revenue of this scale than attempt to raise this level of revenue" and would also be "important to consider measures that support a growth-friendly composition of tax (consumption/property taxes rather than taxes on income/profits).
"We should also look at opportunities for new taxes that could meet some of the Government's broader policy objectives, raising revenue to relieve long-term fiscal pressures (eg an NHS/social care surcharge or new carbon/green taxes). A 1 per cent increase in the basic rate in the basic rate of income tax would raise around £5 billion p.a."
Mr Sunak is also advised that there are "further options to address the challenge through spending and welfare" reductions.
The document suggests a two-year freeze on public sector pay could generate savings of £6.5 billion by 2023-24 while "stopping the rising cost" of the pension triple lock would produce savings of £8 billion a year.
Officials have also been asked to provide advice on the timing of an announcement, which could take the form of a summer Budget. The document advises the Chancellor that the "timing, pace and composition of any consolidation should be managed carefully to avoid the risk of stifling the economic recovery".
However, it adds: "The timing of an effective medium-term strategy should also take into the account the right time to use political capital, and there may be benefits to setting out future consolidation plans now alongside support for the recovery."
The document, drawn up by the Chancellor's policy advisers, says "a more realistic scenario" than the idea of a V-shaped recovery is a "prolonged recovery and some permanent damage to the economy" – in other words, a U-shaped recovery.
In the Treasury's own worst case prediction, the economy would go through an "L-shaped" recovery, meaning economic output would remain below current forecasts for the next five years, leading to a large structural deficit and a budget deficit running to one third of GDP.
Mr Sunak has faced repeated questions about how he intends to recoup the cost of the coronavirus bailout package, but has so far refused to be drawn into discussions about future tax rises or squeezes on public spending.
A Treasury source described the measures set out in the document as "a summary of all the existing levers" rather than a recommendation of any particular course of action, and said no decisions had yet been made about revenue-raising policies.
The document reveals that the Treasury's own base case scenario – in other words, what it thinks is most likely – estimates that the current budget deficit, forecast at £55 billion for 2020-21 before the pandemic, will actually be £337 billion because of the cost of bailouts and lost tax revenues. The base case puts the deficit at £83 billion in 2021-22, dropping to £32 billion by 2024-25.
In a worst case scenario it will be £516 billion, or £450 billion more than pre-pandemic forecasts. That dwarfs the budget for NHS England, which stands at £129 billion.
The most optimistic scenario given by Treasury advisers is that the deficit will run to £209 billion in the current financial year and could even return to surplus by 2023-24.
No-one should be surprised by this, but I guess there'll be no end of outrage - not paying nurses more , capping pensions, increasing taxes, etc. Not sure what else people could reasonably expect at the end of this crisis. There'll be the usual calls to tax the bankers and the super rich without any recognition that you could tax those groups out of existence and still not touch the sides of the deficit. It will be a shock to many that the free money the government has been giving out turns out not to be free at all, but a loan from the people to be paid back from our future earnings.
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Post by garry on May 13, 2020 9:27:47 GMT
This is my maternal grandfather with and in his fighter, which as I say I think is a Curtiss Tomahawk: Mum has a painting hanging at home which someone did from that photo of the plane in flight, as well as a formal portrait of grandpa in uniform by Edward Seago, who among other things also created the St George & the Dragon radiator mascot that the Queen’s State limousine wears. Fantastic photograph. My parents and Grandparents were ww2 and ww1 war babies. The only war story I have (and it still makes me sad to this day) is that my grandmother never met her dad. He was killed in the trenches on Christmas day 1915.
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Post by garry on May 11, 2020 14:23:00 GMT
My mx5 mk1. The green one, I wish I hadn’t sold that car.
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Post by garry on May 7, 2020 17:51:05 GMT
I know there’s a Harry’s Garage thread, but this video he’s put together on the electric car market is ace.
And for any cycling fans, that bike at the end is a specialised Levo turbo. A mate has one, it’s £5k of loveliness, I’m not much of an off road cyclist but that machine adds a level of fun that I’ve never come across before in an mtb.
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Post by garry on May 7, 2020 15:11:58 GMT
I just saw this on some media feed and thought it was a piss take. So I looked it up and it's not: www.bbc.com/pidginYe, I jus de shooka ma hed wen I was seeing dat. Wolds gon de mad man. This is their prof ferguson quote "I accept say I make mistake and I no do di right tin."
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Post by garry on May 7, 2020 13:22:21 GMT
My dad had a MK3 Cortina 2000E in that colour and I remember my mum going mad when he brought it home due to green being the unlucky colour. My dad had a green mk 5 cortina estate with green velour interior. It was a bugger to sell, not sure if that was because it was seen as unlucky or because it looked shit!
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Post by garry on May 7, 2020 12:57:54 GMT
That's very nice. Whenever i look on the Porsche configurator I'm drawn to a colour called aventurine green. Not as 'green' as that Alfa, but lovely nonetheless
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Post by garry on May 7, 2020 12:51:55 GMT
Other than the Tesla and Jaguar the April list is deeply depressing. Why?? Who is going to buy a new car now, with lockdown in progress so you can't drive anywhere except the shops, and many have either lost their jobs or don't know how much longer their job is going to last? Same as the airline industry, many countries have banned internationally arriving passengers so no great surprise to me that BA, Virgin Atlantic, MOL's lot and many others are proposing to slash staff numbers and that the future of some airports is in doubt. Things are being said like this is the biggest recession in our lifetime etc - I suspect that it will be the biggest depression etc in history to date. We are far more dependent on international trade and travel than ever before; you can't just put the shutters up on a country for a few weeks and expect to re-open them with very little impact. The effect of even 3 weeks of near-total lockdown would have been disastrous, but effectively 7 weeks and counting ........ the worst disaster in the history of mankind (IMHO)I disagree. It's clearly going to be painful, but I'm optimistic we can recover reasonably quickly. Depressions typically have structural and fundamental root cause(s). For example, the 1930's depression was driven by a bubble and structural problems in the banking sector. Once in the depression, those structural issues need fixing before you can climb out. Covid presents a shock to our economic systems, not because of our economic systems. Hitting a structurally sound economy with a shock is very different from an economy crashing because its structurally unsound.
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Post by garry on May 7, 2020 12:27:10 GMT
I'm guessing the Tesla is up there because you order them online and not from a showroom? Weird how the Corsa is in the top 10 but the Fiesta has disappeared. That's what i was thinking. The graphic is more about deliveries than orders? Tesla number might well be a typical monthly number for them and could reflect a pre-covid market?
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Post by garry on May 7, 2020 8:38:03 GMT
So I've cycled from Newcastle to Morpeth and got a puncture just as I was coming into town. Currently sitting in the park while a nearby cycle shop repairs it. I must buy a puncture repair kit. Schoolboy error. My emergency kit is: 2 x Spare inner tube - you don't want to be getting glue and patches out to try and fix a tyre whilst out. Co2 tyre inflator - an amazing little device that reinflates a tyre in seconds £20 - you never know when you'll need a taxi Mars bar - If you overcook it (known variously as blowing or bonking) a mars bar should give you a sugar hit to get home Failing all that, look helpless by the side of the road and most cyclists are a friendly bunch and will stop and help. I'm at 670 lockdown miles on the bike. That's up there with my mileage when i was IronMan training
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Post by garry on May 7, 2020 8:25:49 GMT
Cabin fever setting in I fear - jokingly suggested to Mrs 12th that maybe I'd shave my head rather than clipper it. Did it yesterday, and barring one minor nick through inexperience I think I prefer it. I fear it's a slippery slope to picking berries from the roadside and eating roadkill... It's elasticated trousers next! One of my team wore a hat on our morning call. Hat was still on the next day. When persuaded to remove it we saw that his wife had attempted what was supposed to be a peaky blinders haircut, but it had more of a Kim Jong-un vibe.
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Post by garry on May 1, 2020 16:26:35 GMT
The 8% figure was on the BBC news last night and my immediate feeling was I thought it should have been 25/30%. 8% really isn't a massive shift for all the empty roads, factories and offices. I'd have thought it would be more too. Perhaps we have to assume that the reduction in emissions from general travel and industry / commerce are being partly offset by extra emissions from web servers, delivery vans and home power use? Could it be that consumption doesn’t correlate with pollution?Perhaps all the things that we’ve stopped doing are the least impactful? For example, do the emissions improvements in cars over the last decade mean that their ratio of consumption to pollution has changed? No idea on this, but it’s an interesting area. On the surface it suggests we can bring the world to an almost complete standstill and only marginally impact pollution.
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Post by garry on May 1, 2020 12:20:34 GMT
Companies are still considering electric cars but the charging infrastructure is not going to be a top priority after this lockdown in my opinion. The amount being spent on grants and furlough is going to be anything up to 10yrs of EU subs so there is going to be a hell of a lot of debt to be repaid. The reduction in global pollution has been 8% with almost no-one going anywhere. Pardon the French but WTF is the other 92% coming from - that appears to be continuing despite us all sitting around doing nothing and it surely must be more important to tackle the 92% instead of the 8%.I don't think that oil will stay cheap long term but I think the ICE still has a long way to go until a proper EV charging structure is in place and the cost of EV's falls significantly. That’s a really interesting point. Where did you find that? I’d have thought pollution and oil prices would tie together somehow, but this stat suggests not. And to your point - what is the 92%? If by locking down most people in most nations you get an 8% shift, it would be reasonable to conclude that no amount of bike riding vs drivng or taking local holidays vs flying is going to nudge the environmental needle by any noticeable degree.
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