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Post by Big Blue on Oct 20, 2023 10:47:35 GMT
Yes, we all know that by- elections can be just a local or mid- term protest vote but these were huge swings.
The mid-Bedfordshire result was a huge swing but the Tamworth one is far more significant. The Bedfordshire one involved a level of voting for Lib Dem’s to swing the majority so far in Labour’s favour whereas the percentages for Tamworth are not far off a straight swap from Conservative to Labour. Some social media suggestion that the Conservatives may yet try to oust Sunak before a GE but one assumes their PR department will suggest that swapping yet another leader in the run up to a GE after the disaster of the past contest is ill advised.
Speaking to my naturally conservative friends with no real political leanings they are of the opinion that if the opposition put up Count Binface as their new leader they’d still be preferable to the current status quo - a change of any kind for the need for change is currently on the cards.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Oct 20, 2023 11:09:55 GMT
There's no doubt the current government has run out of steam and ideas. I predict the triumphant return of Boris to drive the conservatives to another election victory in 2024.
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Post by Roadrunner on Oct 20, 2023 12:32:34 GMT
A couple of nights ago I had a wierd dream in which Nigel Farage came, uninvited, to my house. I had a massive row with him, refusing to cook him a meal, so he started to cook something for himself. It all went wrong and he burnt a big hole in the worktop, leaving the kitchen and cooker completely wrecked.
All sorts of metaphor in there, and yet some are saying he would make a good leader for the Conservatives.
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Post by johnc on Oct 20, 2023 13:12:04 GMT
I fear that the Tories are about to go through what Labour did after they were found to be completely useless and Margaret Thatcher came to power. With the SNP weakened, Labour will find it much easier to win next time around. Whether Labour follow a middle of the road line of policies, forge some better trading links with the EU and remain business friendly will probably determine the length of their tenancy at No10 but it could be a long time if they don't go all Corbyn.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Oct 20, 2023 13:16:00 GMT
I fear that the Tories are about to go through what Labour did after they were found to be completely useless and Margaret Thatcher came to power. With the SNP weakened, Labour will find it much easier to win next time around. Whether Labour follow a middle of the road line of policies, forge some better trading links with the EU and remain business friendly will probably determine the length of their tenancy at No10 but it could be a long time if they don't go all Corbyn. I think Momentum are quietly lurking, waiting in the background, ready for a Labour win. Then they'll emerge and you'll see a battle for the heart of the Labour Party between the Trojan Horse, Starmer, and the hard line Corbynists as they try to wrest control.
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Post by chipbutty on Oct 20, 2023 16:30:24 GMT
I find the prospect of a Starmer/Rayner led government terrifying. I have absolutely no idea what he stands for and what his mandate will be because he has flip flopped so much – is this because he is tailoring his pitch and will lead in the same vein ? or his just lying through his teeth so he can get the keys and fall back on being woke-asaurus rex, ably assisted by the plate of cold mince (aka Angela Rayner) ?
As Kahn and Drakeford have shown – they wipe their arses on their mandate the second they get in and pay zero attention to negative feedback from the electorate. Why would Starmer be any different ?
I also cannot forget his behaviour during Covid – he would have had us locked up for years.
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Post by woofwoof on Oct 21, 2023 11:33:14 GMT
I may be wrong but didn't the results of the latest by-elections hinge on large numbers of previous Tory voters not voting? I may be wrong but I seem to remember from some figures I read that the Labour vote didn't actually go through the stratosphere.
I'm sure I'll be corrected if wrong.
I was always a Labour voter until local events created a backlash and lead many locals to vote Tory for perhaps the first time. Corbyn was also a factor for me and to this day I don't think his shadow and that of the more extreme left has reduced enough to allow me to vote labour. I think I am concerned about a future labour govt and what it could lead to given the more extreme leanings of some supporters and groups.
I'd like to see a new party more in line with the Labour party of old, left leaning on some issues and more conservative (conservative, not Tory) on other issues.
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Post by Big Blue on Oct 21, 2023 15:56:01 GMT
Out of interest, what does the Sunak government offer that’s so preferable to anything other than a violent, murderous purge?
The Conservatives forced the entire country to vote on a matter to resolve a decades-old internal party argument; they knee-jerk reacted to the far right because they feared a politician that had never won a parliamentary seat ever; they forced rules upon the country including imposing huge fines then ignored the rules themselves; they’ve imposed immigration laws that defy the history of the nation; the PM has pushed several decisions that benefited his wife’s finances; he recently single-handedly overturned an act of parliament (HS2) with no debate (as per a dictatorship) and they have overseen the imposition of levels of taxation making them the biggest tax-raising parliament on record with no discernible improvement to services or benefits.
Whatever you fear coming don’t worry: it’s already here.
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Post by woofwoof on Oct 21, 2023 16:25:32 GMT
Out of interest, what does the Sunak government offer that’s so preferable to anything other than a violent, murderous purge? The Conservatives forced the entire country to vote on a matter to resolve a decades-old internal party argument; they knee-jerk reacted to the far right because they feared a politician that had never won a parliamentary seat ever; they forced rules upon the country including imposing huge fines then ignored the rules themselves; they’ve imposed immigration laws that defy the history of the nation; the PM has pushed several decisions that benefited his wife’s finances; he recently single-handedly overturned an act of parliament (HS2) with no debate (as per a dictatorship) and they have overseen the imposition of levels of taxation making them the biggest tax-raising parliament on record with no discernible improvement to services or benefits. Whatever you fear coming don’t worry: it’s already here. Many people who voted for Brexit wouldn't consider themselves "far right" or anything like it. People like me. I was a traditional Labour voter from a working class and traditionally Labour voting area which voted decisively for Brexit. As did many similar areas and people. To link people like this with anything "far right" is simply wrong. However the definition of "far right" nowadays seems to include anyone who isn't a member of Hamas. Tongue in cheek but you get my point. The Conservative govt deserves to be voted out and Sunak does imo need to go but I do see potential things to fear from a future labour govt, things which are not already here. Whatever govt "we" vote for "we" will have to live with the consequences. I hope people realise this as they vote.
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Post by Stuntman on Oct 21, 2023 17:31:03 GMT
I think that Jeff's saying that the parliamentary Conservative Party lurched to the far right over its Brexit stance, rather than implying anything about the voters.
Personally I cannot say any result other than a Labour landslide at the next General Election and I think the Conservatives will get a very rude awakening indeed. The Lib Dems might well get over 50 seats too.
I would welcome a centre-left Labour government much more than the government that we currently seem to have. But I hear what some of you are saying about what might happen after Labour wins (assuming they do, especially with a huge majority). However, I don't think Starmer is that naive.
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Post by Big Blue on Oct 21, 2023 19:11:07 GMT
The Conservatives forced the entire country to vote on a matter to resolve a decades-old internal party argument; they knee-jerk reacted to the far right because they feared a politician that had never won a parliamentary seat ever. Many people who voted for Brexit wouldn't consider themselves "far right" or anything like it. People like me. I was a traditional Labour voter from a working class and traditionally Labour voting area which voted decisively for Brexit. As did many similar areas and people. To link people like this with anything "far right" is simply wrong. However the definition of "far right" nowadays seems to include anyone who isn't a member of Hamas. Tongue in cheek but you get my point. I'm afraid you've demonstrated everything that's wrong with modern society, from social media keyboard warriors all the way to those in Westminster setting the rules under which society lives. There was no mention by me of Brexit at all: I pointed out the reason for the Conservatives calling a referendum. I did not mention any Brexit voters from any historical political background at all (although the figures for votes in traditional Labour constituencies showed at the Boris Johnson election that the "foreigners are being nasty to you" approach had some tangible effect and anyone that thinks otherwise is lying to themselves) because there is no black and white; them and us; two sided argument for the running of a nation of 67M people yet that is how everything in society is approached. Some examples: You're a homosexual yet you refuse to accept that transexuals can be women in the same sense as a woman born with no Y chromosome - you're a TERF and need to be killed. You're a white person in a fight with a black person; you defend yourself robustly and injure the other party. The argument was about a girl / spilled drink / football but you are a racist. You think that carpet bombing the civilian population of Gaza is atrocious - you're an antisemite. You think that taxing the better off more is going to result in the flight of wealth and loss of tax income - you're a greedy capitalist. You think that making sure that the wealthy pay their share of tax yet can maintain their lifestyle - you're a raving Marxist. As to the remark about the "far right" and Labour voters, Labour being the party of socialist ideals, the power of the common man and the rights of workers - the National Socialist German Workers' Party was exactly that. Apparently they were also "far right". Sorry if I've come across as a bit bate-y in this post, but this country is in a shocking state and even if, as I said, Count Binface became the leader of the ruling party it couldn't be any worse than the current shower of utter shit. That coming from a reasonably well-off boy from a Surrey schooling background that's quite some criticism.
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Post by Tim on Oct 23, 2023 7:53:45 GMT
I've seen quite a few people now saying how much they fear a Labour Government.
I can understand that to a degree but what do they imagine would happen if the Tories actually own next year? I would expect Sunak to get the bullet within hours of the win and on the current basis we'd end up with a reappearance of Truss or Braverman or someone similar. Possibly Farage might be in the running!
I consider that prospect a lot worse than Labour under Starmer.
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Post by johnc on Oct 23, 2023 8:31:00 GMT
I've seen quite a few people now saying how much they fear a Labour Government. I can understand that to a degree but what do they imagine would happen if the Tories actually own next year? I would expect Sunak to get the bullet within hours of the win and on the current basis we'd end up with a reappearance of Truss or Braverman or someone similar. Possibly Farage might be in the running! I consider that prospect a lot worse than Labour under Starmer. I agree but the difference with Labour this time is that the Momentum nutters are still hanging around and if they do what they did in the 1960s and 70s, they will chase anyone with money out of the country. Remember that the higher rate tax threshold should be about £90K now if it had moved with earnings and inflation but at £50,250 in England and Wales and £43,662 in Scotland (and an additional 2% on top) the people they are taking nearly half their earnings from are hardly wealthy. The danger is, a bit like the SNP, that they try to appeal to those at the very bottom, who contribute a tiny proportion of the tax but would be happy to see all those above them pay much more. Unfortunately it isn't that simple.
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Post by chipbutty on Oct 23, 2023 8:58:14 GMT
I've seen quite a few people now saying how much they fear a Labour Government. I can understand that to a degree but what do they imagine would happen if the Tories actually own next year? I would expect Sunak to get the bullet within hours of the win and on the current basis we'd end up with a reappearance of Truss or Braverman or someone similar. Possibly Farage might be in the running! I consider that prospect a lot worse than Labour under Starmer. It's not a Labour government - it's a Starmer/Rayner government. Labour couldn’t give a stuff about working people or the common (wo)man - it’s going to be full speed net zero and screw the cost/convenience/quality impact. For subjects closer to our hearts, I wouldn’t be surprised if the 20 mph nonsense in Wales gets extended across the country – all of the anti car, anti speed, uber green lunatic fringe infest the left. I am by no means a fan of the current shower of shite in charge, but I have a better understanding of where their limits are vs the opposition. Team Sunak don’t have any credible plans to fix the problems du jour – but nothing Starmer has said makes me think they do either. So I think the choice is this: • Mediocrity with a slight chance of improvement • Mediocrity with even higher taxes, more state intervention, more destructive net zero bollocks and wheezes such as jail time for misgendering. All IMHO of course
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Post by Tim on Oct 23, 2023 10:35:20 GMT
What's worse then, Labour with a possibility of Momentum getting involved or the Tories with the ERG nutters doing a full takeover?
I don't think that Labour will pursue the misgendering thing and net zero will be toned down once they see the cost and need for much higher taxes. As for them not giving a stuff about working people, well they're no different from the current Tories there are they? Don't forget we're currently paying more in tax than ever before and this under a Tory government.
One of the parties has to realise that what the vast majority of people actually want is a centrist - slightly left or right probably doesn't matter - Government that at least pretends to listen to the main issues that normal folk worry about.
I think Brexit has been a massive temporary bump in the road that has somehow become a false indication - to the morons in power/potentially in power - that most people want more right leaning policies. I don't think that's the case at all.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Oct 23, 2023 10:53:23 GMT
I think Brexit has been a massive temporary bump in the road that has somehow become a false indication - to the morons in power/potentially in power - that most people want more right leaning policies. I don't think that's the case at all. All across Europe; France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece, and further afield; NZ, Australia, there's been a distinct movement to the right so I'm not sure you're right about that. Anyway, this government has run out of ideas and steam. Probably let someone else take the wheel of the bus and drive us off the cliff.
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Post by Tim on Oct 23, 2023 12:00:59 GMT
Haven't some countries flirted with a move to the right and then gone back a bit? I can't remember who but saw it mentioned somewhere recently.
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Post by johnc on Oct 23, 2023 12:08:58 GMT
I should point out that I think the Tories have totally run out of steam and ideas and I am not convinced they have the talent within the party to take the country forward. Brexit blew a huge hole in the Tories and they will be a long time recovering. One small glimmer of hope is that the EU now want us to talk to them about closer trade ties. Maybe Labour will be more successful with that than the toxic Tories who are more likely to have a party agenda when talking to the EU rather than considering what is best for the country.
However my over-riding feeling is that no-one is properly qualified to run the country and all major parties are full of lightweights with no experience.
I also know the country took on a huge amount of debt with Covid and all the help they provided but given the current very high level of taxation, where exactly is all that money going. As I have said previously we have clients who have moved to England to avoid the increased rates of Scottish tax and we have clients who have moved to Dubai to avoid UK taxes. Given that we are a small firm, if this was extrapolated across the UK, there must be tens of thousands who have done this or are considering doing it. I have many clients who have moved to a 4 day week to keep their salaries below £100K, including lots of doctors. Tax of 60% does make people change their behaviour to the detriment of the country as a whole. My fear with the left wing Momentum and Rayner is that they believe they can just take extra tax and people won't react or they can take away charitable status from private schools and add VAT to the fees with no impact. I know several private schools which would close under these proposals and rather than bringing money in to the Treasury it would cost money to find and fund school places for these children in State schools. There are many elite schools which would survive with ease but there are lots which just keep their heads above water and the parents of the children are only just able to pay the fees at the moment. School fees at a private school near me were c£1,150/mth before the Scottish Government removed exemption from rates. The fees are now closer to £1,350/mth. The loss of charitable status is likely to mean no bursaries for poorer but gifted children but VAT would put those fees up to £1,620/mth without any other increases for higher teachers pay etc. For one child, that's just under £20K a year out of taxed income. For 2 children, that's nearly £40K out of taxed income or about £75K of gross earnings. You average doctor or consultant has no chance of affording this and they make up the largest percentage of parents in the school. The politics of envy are very dangerous and damaging.
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Post by Big Blue on Oct 23, 2023 14:03:49 GMT
Anyway, this government has run out of ideas and steam. Probably let someone else take the wheel of the bus and drive us off the cliff. This is about where we are. I get (as per the comments above) that fear of change and fear of the unknown are big drivers behind the continued re-selection of the Conservative party (change and fear of the unknown are pretty much conservative traits) but as history shows every so often a shake-up is required to rein-in the creeping complacency and the blatant abuse of the [political] [social] [taxation] system. The biggest issue is that politicians in the history of the filthy career have only ever had one agenda and that is to remain in office because it allows them to play the game that they want to play. That game can differ amongst many: Atlee used the desire for a more vocal public voice by the masses following the war to get elected. That the US (who were handing out money at the time) saw him as leading a party of "commies" and treated the UK with suspicion in their (the US') most fruitful years was inconsequential. Given his social background (he once write a paper attacking striking taxi drivers; benefitted from inherited wealth and lived a lifestyle akin to the current front bench of the Conservative party) he was hardly a natural Labourite. If you check back to the introduction of the Common Agricultural Policy in the UK and see how many politicians suddenly became farm owners and understand the long term level of system abuse. Thatcher used the militancy of the unions to gain power (as was also common, but not as vehemently reported, in the rest of Europe). That the policies of her government probably increased the lot of a far greater number of families than the vociferous many that regale the issues they feel are "working class" that she opposed says much about the political and media landscape. There was no them and us in the late 70s: everyone was fucked with the well-off being taxed at 83% and the rest of everyone wearing clothes that made static sparks if you rubbed them together. Major was probably the last true Conservative political leader as far as the general population were concerned. He came from a relatively normal background (as did Thatcher compared to the alternatives of her time) and understood what most ordinary people wanted most of the time, something that is sadly lacking in all parties today. He was never a glory chaser and became leader in an era of party turmoil. His electoral success was probably as hated by the Tory grandees as by the foaming lefties and his undoing was brought about by the excesses of the type of Conservative we see today, storming out of election halls as bad losers. Blair used that middle ground that had been built by the Thatcher and Major years to gain power. The left despised his centralism; the right were suspicious of any left wing possibilities. Since then there has been a farcical situation at No 10 on all fronts. Brown was a lost cause with the centre ground voters and his much-publicised brush with a common or garden member of the public did him no favours with the working classes either. The Cameron hung-parliament was toilet and he had to resort to playing on the anti-foreigner atmosphere to get the next GE over the line by promising a referendum. Some will point at the Johnson GE success as a pointer of stability of direction in the polls but his tenure was an exact illustration of my point above above about politicians only being there to stay in. So a change is required. It may be that there is a mad lurch to the left and we're all enslaved at 20mph; maybe taxes will go up more (although remember who currently made them this high); maybe there will be a flight of business from the UK, but there is already. The tax issue is the biggest gripe for me: I'm not concerned about my tax percentage neither am I concerned about it going up or down 5%. What pisses me off the most is seeing it being utterly pissed against a wall with no benefits for society as a whole visible no matter which side is in power at a local and national level. Pete's analysis is largely correct: carry on with the same, knowing it's shit or; change not knowing what shit will come. I suspect many will be looking at the latter and gritting their teeth that they can stand it for five years if it makes the other side understand where the limits are.
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Post by Big Blue on Oct 23, 2023 14:22:18 GMT
Remember that the higher rate tax threshold should be about £90K now if it had moved with earnings and inflation but at £50,250 in England and Wales and £43,662 in Scotland (and an additional 2% on top) the people they are taking nearly half their earnings from are hardly wealthy. Who's had the longest period in power in our working lives and hasn't addressed this?
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Post by Big Blue on Oct 23, 2023 14:24:42 GMT
Haven't some countries flirted with a move to the right and then gone back a bit? I can't remember who but saw it mentioned somewhere recently. Poland recently. France: always on the brink of a Le Pen administration but never quite making it Slovakia: Nationalists didn't make it to full parliament and have to coalition with all sorts of dregs Germany: same as Slovakia
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Post by Tim on Oct 23, 2023 15:08:06 GMT
Remember that the higher rate tax threshold should be about £90K now if it had moved with earnings and inflation but at £50,250 in England and Wales and £43,662 in Scotland (and an additional 2% on top) the people they are taking nearly half their earnings from are hardly wealthy. Who's had the longest period in power in our working lives and hasn't addressed this? Ooh, can I have a guess? Is it the same party that at their recent conference said, without a hint of irony, it was time for a change and that they were it?
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Post by johnc on Oct 23, 2023 15:48:26 GMT
But Gordon Brown and Tony Blair stopped the automatic increase in the bands with inflation - the Tories then used that to their advantage and I quite agree, have screwed us ever since. The SNP just added a bit more pain north of the border.
Like Jeff, I want to know where all my tax money is going.
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Post by Tim on Oct 23, 2023 16:10:49 GMT
If you're prepared to agree to some (more) expensive management consultants I'm sure an answer could be provided.
It is getting quite depressing that we now appear to be paying a lot more in taxation of all types yet receive significantly fewer services. It cant ALL be because of elderly care costs surely?
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Post by johnc on Oct 23, 2023 17:28:15 GMT
If you're prepared to agree to some (more) expensive management consultants I'm sure an answer could be provided. No way. Have you seen how much these guys get paid and most of them are average at best!
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Post by Tim on Oct 24, 2023 8:18:01 GMT
If you're prepared to agree to some (more) expensive management consultants I'm sure an answer could be provided. No way. Have you seen how much these guys get paid and most of them are average at best! I aspire to being one of these guys - more money and less work On the general subject of management consultants my experience of the typical firms they work for (usually a branch of one of the big accountancy/audit firms) has been underwhelming. This is for audit services clearly but I'm pretty sure I could've committed some spectacular fraud when KPMG were our auditors and they would never have found it. The follow-on firm was much better but their original audit partner stepped back recently and the new one, along with some of his team, is formerly of KPMG and we're back to mediocrity at best. I know some of the other audit staff over the last few years have been ex-big firm and I feel that you can just tell that they're not as good. However, KPMG in particular were certainly VERY expensive - 3 times the cost of the firm they replaced!!
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Post by Big Blue on Oct 24, 2023 8:37:17 GMT
Ha! We deliver services through the big 4 (all of them) because they are on Government Frameworks that provide certain services and the Big 4 haven't got direct capability in those certain services. We (and others like us) do have so we are tiered suppliers. The thing is the tenders that the Big 4 respond to (and win) would be won by companies like ours if we were allowed to enter the Frameworks as stand alone but there are more barriers that way than partnering with a big 4 and letting them do the expensive tendering bit.
It results in seasoned professionals being managed by callow youth, if I'm honest. I know what my general charge-out rate range is and it can be into 4-figures a day. The big 4 are still making money on the deal as well as administering us. Then get this: we as a tiered provider division in the Partnership are more profitable than the traditional arms of the business that do the really fancy front-of-house stuff for FTSE100 companies.
This is probably why I'm not concerned about being taxed, but remain concerned about where it is spent for the general populace.
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Post by johnc on Oct 24, 2023 11:07:35 GMT
We have a few specialist clients who do work for "The Government" directly. They have all been told that when the current contracts end, the new contract will be rolled into one huge contract covering at least half a dozen existing contracts and they will be taken on by "insert the name of a large company". The large company can't provide all the services so they are now talking to our clients to provide the solution, working as their subcontractor. I can't see how this will end up cheaper for us as taxpayers. Our clients are the only people who can provide the solution (unless someone new comes to the market without the detailed knowledge) and they are putting their prices up because of the risk of dealing with a large corporate who may or may not pay on time or might just give them grief. The large corporate will obviously take a slice of profit so ultimately the overall cost will be higher. The only saving the Government will get is that they only need to make one payment at the end of the month instead of six or seven.
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Post by Martin on Oct 24, 2023 12:54:01 GMT
We’re involved in a fairly large government tender process and I’ve never seen anything like it, from the paperwork to the decision process. Thankfully it’s not my Division. They do want everything with one supplier, but in this particular case I can see why and it does make sense.
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Post by PG on Oct 24, 2023 13:07:52 GMT
Back in the mid 1990's the firm I worked for did a large (for them) £3M contract with the MOD to install a software system to control weapons stored on ships and submarines. Necessary because all munitions have a shelf life and have to be refurbished / checked over after a period on board.
As martin has found the paperwork and decision process has to be seen to be believed. But if you win the tender martin, wait till you see the contract management and admin paperwork. We reckoned that a commercial enterprise could have put the same system in for less than 50% of the MOD figure.
Within 5 years of it going live it was switched off to be replaced by one that was way more expensive installed and managed by, no surprises, one of the big consultancies and one of the mega software vendors.
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