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Post by rodge on Jan 20, 2022 10:00:41 GMT
January has always been the busiest month for car sales in Ireland. Up until about 5 years ago, when the registration system changed and they copied the UK method of having 2 different regs per year.
So it’s now January and July.
Anyway, I was driving to the shop yesterday and followed a new reg, an Audi Q4 E-Tron or whatever it’s called when I suddenly thought that I hadn’t been taking notice of the new cars I’d seen.
Now most of them have been German, Korean or French from what I’ve noticed, but the Audi pulled into the space beside me and the driver got out.
I suddenly realised I knew him, a long time friend who’s been working for Audi for about 10 years. We were chatting about the car and I think it’s the first electric vehicle he’s had as a demo, he really likes it and mentioned that they are selling like hot cakes, or at least, they would if they could get them into the dealerships.
The current waiting time for the car he’s driving is 12 months.
So anyone ordering the car now, won’t get it until 2023.
He also mentioned that if I’m still looking for work, he can get me a job in his place in sales.
While it’s not what I’m looking for and won’t pay as well, if I can’t find something I might take him up on that offer in the next few weeks.
After all, I’ll probably get a decent demo car as part of the pay which would be nice.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Jan 20, 2022 11:09:27 GMT
I'm amazed at how many e-Trons I see on the road and the number appearing on driveways near me. Our Quality Manager has just got one and loves it - she has a 70 mile daily round commute so is saving fortune in fuel costs.
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Post by Martin on Jan 20, 2022 11:23:03 GMT
One of my colleagues has just ordered a Q4 Etron Vorsprung, but will have a long wait.
As for the potential job offer, it’s always good to have a backup plan.
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Post by Alex on Jan 22, 2022 17:33:25 GMT
Easier to get a job if you already have one. I'd be tempted to go for it so you don't have the pressure of job hunting and can take your time finding what you really want.
As for new cars, it's across the board and not just Audi. Most the VAG brands have major supply issues and are having to delete optional equipment from orders because they can no longer get the part (or in some cases the components are now much more expensive). From what I've read so far the situation doesn't appear to be easing. The knock on is that our fleet has several overdue new car orders and hire car firms are low on stock so when travelling we can no longer book a car unless agreeing to a week's rental minimum. Not idea for a day or two in Northern Ireland or Scotland.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Jan 22, 2022 19:46:31 GMT
We’re expecting the chip shortage to continue for the rest of this year so I can’t see new car supply improving quickly.
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Post by ChrisM on Jan 22, 2022 21:17:16 GMT
^
Not just cars that are still being affected. Where I currently work we are having to re-design new products because some chips are still on lead times of over a year ... and possibly no guarantee that after that length of time, they will still be available. The potential for "grey market" and "black-topped" fraudulent supply grows by the day
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Post by johnc on Jan 26, 2022 14:35:09 GMT
I think the Europeans and Americans now need to bring back chip manufacture and design in to their own home markets. There is something else going on other than just the shortage caused by covid. Maybe the Chinese are having a go at undermining the west by causing shortages but regardless we can't afford to be so dependent on production on the other side of the world in a country with significantly different political/ethical standards from ours and a good Political and military reason to ensure we face a few unscheduled difficulties.
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Post by Boxer6 on Jan 26, 2022 15:14:48 GMT
I totally agree John. It's always amazed me just how much of our electronic infrastructures is manufacturess and/or sourced in China; it's not like we didn't know they were going to try and mess things up at some stage, is it?
/conspiracy mode off
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Post by Tim on Jan 26, 2022 15:19:37 GMT
+1.
You just need to look at Germany's approach to the current crisis in Ukraine to see the influence that can be exerted - they don't want to upset the Russians because of the gas they receive from them.
Re- the chips though, Fife Council inhabit a large building in Glenrothes that they part-funded in about 2000 for the chip maker ADC.
I don't think production ever really started before they shifted production elsewhere.
Wasn't the Hyundai white elephant at Dunfermline (a building twice the size of a large aircraft hangar that never had a single bit of machinery in it) meant for chips as well?
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Post by Big Blue on Jan 26, 2022 15:51:05 GMT
Market forces v politics.
If you need to provide a million widgets a week to a group of clients you have agreed a price with saying that production has moved to a country with higher wages and employment rules favourable to the employee and now the widgets are twice the price doesn’t wash. Even if the widgets are £10/1000 the new price will affect the profit of the client.
So: are we willing to pay £40k for a Fiat 500 yet?
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Post by Martin on Jan 26, 2022 15:59:41 GMT
Market forces v politics. If you need to provide a million widgets a week to a group of clients you have agreed a price with saying that production has moved to a country with higher wages and employment rules favourable to the employee and now the widgets are twice the price doesn’t wash. Even if the widgets are £10/1000 the new price will affect the profit of the client. So: are we willing to pay £40k for a Fiat 500 yet?Surely they aren't that far away from that now?! I wouldn't be surprised if a top of the range electric one is over £35k. |
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Jan 26, 2022 18:31:55 GMT
I think the Europeans and Americans now need to bring back chip manufacture and design in to their own home markets. There is something else going on other than just the shortage caused by covid. Maybe the Chinese are having a go at undermining the west by causing shortages but regardless we can't afford to be so dependent on production on the other side of the world in a country with significantly different political/ethical standards from ours and a good Political and military reason to ensure we face a few unscheduled difficulties. Most of the major chip plants are in the US, Japan, and Taiwan. China is a relatively small player. Labour costs have little impact on the siting of new chip plants. A fire at a major plant in Japan, a drought in Taiwan, and freezing weather in Texas, have hugely reduced supply. The Chinese have therefore prioritised their production for domestic customers. |
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Post by johnc on Jan 27, 2022 8:39:24 GMT
I think the Europeans and Americans now need to bring back chip manufacture and design in to their own home markets. There is something else going on other than just the shortage caused by covid. Maybe the Chinese are having a go at undermining the west by causing shortages but regardless we can't afford to be so dependent on production on the other side of the world in a country with significantly different political/ethical standards from ours and a good Political and military reason to ensure we face a few unscheduled difficulties. Most of the major chip plants are in the US, Japan, and Taiwan. China is a relatively small player. Labour costs have little impact on the siting of new chip plants. A fire at a major plant in Japan, a drought in Taiwan, and freezing weather in Texas, have hugely reduced supply. The Chinese have therefore prioritised their production for domestic customers. If that is the case, they have let the supply chain become far too fragile and dependent on a very small number of manufacturing plants. Regardless, it needs fixed and production needs to be spread wider. |
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Post by garry on Jan 27, 2022 8:51:51 GMT
My understanding is that a major issue has been a significant increase in demand that the industry hadn’t anticipated driven by automotive tech. The problem is exacerbated by the investment required to build a chip manufacturing plant (£billions) and the length of time it takes for a new factory to start producing chips (i seem to recall it takes three years ) .
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Post by Big Blue on Jan 27, 2022 10:05:50 GMT
Add to that the fact that your vehicle developed over three years prior to release and then having a 7 year production run is causing a demand for chip technology that is archaic and therefore not being produced efficiently. The chipsets in your phone is constantly changing and they sell more phones a week than cars so the chip manufacturers are pushing those out having developed them and needing to recover r&d costs asap.
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Post by PetrolEd on Jan 27, 2022 11:22:14 GMT
Add to that the fact that your vehicle developed over three years prior to release and then having a 7 year production run is causing a demand for chip technology that is archaic and therefore not being produced efficiently. The chipsets in your phone is constantly changing and they sell more phones a week than cars so the chip manufacturers are pushing those out having developed them and needing to recover r&d costs asap. But would that not be an advantage to car manufacturers? If the chips are in production for 7 years then isn't it easier for them to be made as it just sits on an old machine in the corner pumping out cheap chips 24/7 rather then needing new tech to manufacture new chips for phones? Or is it we only have so much manufacturing space and the car companies don't pay us enough to produce their old chips compared to Apple? If option 2 would the car manufacturers not just pay more for chips as their margins must be a hell of a lot healthier now then they were 2 years ago given they sell their cars with better margins, better margins on finance, no manufacturer deposit contributions etc. Maybe car manufacturers like this current market? Low stock, cars being built to order etc. |
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Jan 27, 2022 11:30:47 GMT
Add to that the fact that your vehicle developed over three years prior to release and then having a 7 year production run is causing a demand for chip technology that is archaic and therefore not being produced efficiently. The chipsets in your phone is constantly changing and they sell more phones a week than cars so the chip manufacturers are pushing those out having developed them and needing to recover r&d costs asap. But would that not be an advantage to car manufacturers? If the chips are in production for 7 years then isn't it easier for them to be made as it just sits on an old machine in the corner pumping out cheap chips 24/7 rather then needing new tech to manufacture new chips for phones? Or is it we only have so much manufacturing space and the car companies don't pay us enough to produce their old chips compared to Apple? No, chip manufacturers have little interest in devoting resources to producing low margin, obsolete chips . A lot of the cheap chips are swept up by brokers who can then massively hike the price they charge and sell them to manufacturers of consumer good who have been building the same product for year and don't want to invest in PCB board re-spins, with all the on costs of design, testing etc. |
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Jan 27, 2022 11:32:29 GMT
Most of the major chip plants are in the US, Japan, and Taiwan. China is a relatively small player. Labour costs have little impact on the siting of new chip plants. A fire at a major plant in Japan, a drought in Taiwan, and freezing weather in Texas, have hugely reduced supply. The Chinese have therefore prioritised their production for domestic customers. If that is the case, they have let the supply chain become far too fragile and dependent on a very small number of manufacturing plants. Regardless, it needs fixed and production needs to be spread wider. The long list of semiconductor plants is here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabrication_plants |
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Post by Alex on Jan 27, 2022 14:39:29 GMT
One thing I heard on the issue of obsolete chips is that a lot of car manufacturers ramped down production during the spring 2020 lockdowns just as their was a global surge for now tech equipment (laptops, TVs, games consoles etc) and the chip firms shifted towards making the microchips needed for those products so when the car manufacturers came back online wanted chips that were designed 10+ years ago, they suddenly found their previous suppliers no longer made them and had no appetite for going backwards to restart making them.
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Post by rodge on Jan 27, 2022 17:03:39 GMT
I was meeting with a guy yesterday who’s interested in hiring me- we’ve known each other for years and have worked together for over 10 years. He works for one of the semiconductor machine manufacturers and told me the companies that are making chips and components, haven’t been placing orders for forecasted needs in enough time to meet demand.
Machines that typically take 18 months from order to delivery, are being expected in 8 months. The issue is they can’t get parts either, so there’s little or no chance of pulling in the lead times.
Based on that, it’s probably going to be even longer until the older stuff is being made for older designs again.
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Post by ChrisM on Jan 27, 2022 18:29:54 GMT
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Post by PG on Jan 27, 2022 20:53:54 GMT
One thing I heard on the issue of obsolete chips is that a lot of car manufacturers ramped down production during the spring 2020 lockdowns just as their was a global surge for now tech equipment (laptops, TVs, games consoles etc) and the chip firms shifted towards making the microchips needed for those products so when the car manufacturers came back online wanted chips that were designed 10+ years ago, they suddenly found their previous suppliers no longer made them and had no appetite for going backwards to restart making them. Very true. Legacy OEMs suffer from several issues, all of which have here come back to bite them in the bum. And all are of their own making. Time was, steel, tyres and components went in one end and cars came out the other end of the factory. OEMs controlled the entire manufacturing process. But in the name of efficiency - and using other people's money, not their own, for capital investment - they moved a lot of their manufacturing to a tiered supply chain. Tier 1 suppliers were expected to build factories near to OEM sites and produce sub assemblies that the OEM then took in on a JIT basis and built into cars. Tier 1 suppiers used sub tiers to do smaller bits and so on. So chip manufactures are quite way down that chain. OEMs treat their Tier 1 suppliers like shit. They consider that standard business practice. They demand ever lower costs and and ever more commitment from them. Who have no choice but to pass the pain on down to the lower tiers of the supply chain. So when the OEM's see orders dropping off in early 2020, they cut off demand from their sub-assembly manufacturers who pass that on down. No working together, stock building, collaborative solutions. Just stop supplying us, as allowed in the contracts. So chip manufacturers stop making chips for auto. Then they see no reason to just ramp up again - as I am sure the OEM's arrogantly expected them to - as they've gone and found better ways to spend their time. Who can blame them - revenge is a dish best served cold. Additionally, through laziness and greed, the OEM's rely on almost geologically ancient tech (in chip and software terms) and as sub assembly suppliers all need their own ancient tech it is impossible to move to newer tech at any speed. So they are stuck waiting for ancient chips to be made. That's why companies like Tesla (who are both a car and a tech company, so understand this stuff) have been able to keep production at better levels. Less chips and more modern chips in their cars, so easier to source (even if at a higher price) and easier to switch to another source if one dries up. I think that Tesla also have a much less tiered supply chain, building a lot more in house. |
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Post by Big Blue on Jan 27, 2022 23:57:07 GMT
As if by magic, a story about which company bosses the electronics supply chain….. Apple sales soar despite supply constraints www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60163814Look at the numbers involved and understand that car firms have no hope. PG’s post is also correct. As I’ve probably mentioned before, one year my step dad was awarded Ford of Europe Supplier of the year; two years later he told them to get lost after tiring of them price hacking the product every quarter. |
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Post by Tim on Jan 28, 2022 9:16:19 GMT
As if by magic, a story about which company bosses the electronics supply chain….. Apple sales soar despite supply constraints www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60163814Look at the numbers involved and understand that car firms have no hope. PG’s post is also correct. As I’ve probably mentioned before, one year my step dad was awarded Ford of Europe Supplier of the year; two years later he told them to get lost after tiring of them price hacking the product every quarter. I thought we hadn't seen Lily Savage on TV for a while. Seems her alter-ego has been moonlighting as a big company CEO! |
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Post by Big Blue on Jan 28, 2022 9:45:57 GMT
I keep wondering who he reminds me of. Now you’ve told me.
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