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Post by garry on Dec 17, 2021 8:30:48 GMT
I know it’s a mid term By-Election and the incumbent typically gets a bit of a kicking, but the result in Shropshire is eye opening, A Lib Dem win in a Tory safe seat, who took a 31% drop compared to the General Election result. Perhaps more shocking is that the Labour Party were down 12%. I would have voted lib dem too as a protest to the handling of the pandemic, but I wonder if that’s what drove the vote.
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Post by chipbutty on Dec 17, 2021 8:55:54 GMT
I really hope so - clear rejection of the incumbent and the opposition.
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Post by johnc on Dec 17, 2021 10:42:00 GMT
There could be a whole catalogue of things which have led to this protest vote: the promised utopia of Brexit turning out to be something very different, the mention of Peppa Pig in a rambling speech by the man who is supposed to be reliable, sensible and in charge, the you do as you're told and we'll do what we like attitude, the handling of the pandemic, Govt. contracts being handed out to "mates", some of Labour's smear tactics leaving some of the sh*t sticking, rising prices etc etc.
I don't think there is any one thing, but there is a fairly toxic mix when you take it all together.
Personally I am not too concerned about the handling of the pandemic because no-one has been here before so lots of mistakes were always going to be made - perhaps one of those mistakes is the over-reliance on the experts who, by their very nature, are going to be super cautious.
I think the fall in the Labour vote was a tactical one, to get the Tories out. The LibDems are always the go to party for disillusioned Tories and with a top up from Labour, it's job done.
With Boris' cull before the last election of lots of credible but perhaps non Brexit supporting Tories, it is hard to see where a replacement leader will come from. Rishi is the only one I believe would have general public support.
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Post by garry on Dec 17, 2021 11:34:10 GMT
There could be a whole catalogue of things which have led to this protest vote: the promised utopia of Brexit turning out to be something very different, the mention of Peppa Pig in a rambling speech by the man who is supposed to be reliable, sensible and in charge, the you do as you're told and we'll do what we like attitude, the handling of the pandemic, Govt. contracts being handed out to "mates", some of Labour's smear tactics leaving some of the sh*t sticking, rising prices etc etc. I don't think there is any one thing, but there is a fairly toxic mix when you take it all together. Personally I am not too concerned about the handling of the pandemic because no-one has been here before so lots of mistakes were always going to be made - perhaps one of those mistakes is the over-reliance on the experts who, by their very nature, are going to be super cautious. I think the fall in the Labour vote was a tactical one, to get the Tories out. The LibDems are always the go to party for disillusioned Tories and with a top up from Labour, it's job done. With Boris' cull before the last election of lots of credible but perhaps non Brexit supporting Tories, it is hard to see where a replacement leader will come from. Rishi is the only one I believe would have general public support.Rishi will be popular until the general public realise that the money he has pissed away over the last two years was theirs. It’s like getting a Christmas present and then finding out they bought it on your credit card. |
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Post by johnc on Dec 17, 2021 11:52:38 GMT
Rishi will be popular until the general public realise that the money he has pissed away over the last two years was theirs. It’s like getting a Christmas present and then finding out they bought it on your credit card. So I think you are saying we are f*cked regardless? |
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Post by chipbutty on Dec 17, 2021 12:07:48 GMT
Labour took an even bigger kicking than the Tories (12,495 votes and second place in 2019 to 3638 votes and third place in 2021) - so I see that as a rejection of their current performance - why would labour voters vote Lib Dem to get the Tories out ?
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Post by alf on Dec 17, 2021 12:24:56 GMT
Its a policy the Lib Dems and Labour have had as a stated thing in the past, and still do on the side now on occasion. When I lived in Winchester Labour barely turned up, made some local village idiot their candidate, and spent about 50p on campaigning. It was a Liberal seat for a long time on that basis. For some reason hating the Tories and Tory voters is a religion for some, I've stopped trying to argue with these people that some of us vote Tory because we think a strong economy is the best way to get people out of poverty, and that they are the party traditionally of personal freedom, and so on. They are hated and I am hated for voting for them (not that I have/will for Boris as I think he's dishonest and I'd like to see a non-Public school leader), which leads to alliances against them....
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Post by johnc on Dec 17, 2021 13:30:00 GMT
why would labour voters vote Lib Dem to get the Tories out ? Because of arithmetic and for exactly the same reason I would never vote Tory in my constituency - because to ensure someone else doesn't get in is the only real chance to make my vote count when the party I might want to vote for has no chance of getting in. It is a huge issue in many seats and might be a reason for voter apathy. In every election since I was 18 I have voted for a party I didn't want because they were a lesser evil than the party likely to get a majority. This is the reason that first past the post is an outdated system. |
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Post by Big Blue on Dec 17, 2021 14:04:38 GMT
.....I'd like to see a non-Public school leader) This is why John Major was an unexpected election winner. Normal bloke that spoke about normality as he had experienced it. @john: FPP is as useful as PR, probably better - look at the fuck up in Germany where all kinds of moonies have to be forced together to make an actual government with a sway in policy making. |
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Post by Stuntman on Dec 17, 2021 20:02:19 GMT
I was working as a waitress in a cocktail bar a betting shop cashier at Ladbrokes back in 1990 during the Tory Leadership election following the ousting of Thatcher. Major started as "the outsider of 3" behind Hesletine and Hurd, but romped home in the end.
And winning the 1992 General Election was equally unexpected; I was working as a waitress in a cocktail bar a trainee chartered accountant at KPMG when the result came through. Our firm's partners celebrated unexpectedly hard...
As to the by-election result? A little raising of the eyebrow from me, but relatively predictable given the current predicament.
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Post by Roadrunner on Dec 17, 2021 21:13:09 GMT
A big cheer from me for the Shropshire result and I am a lifelong Tory voter. I will not be voting Tory again until Boris and his slimy gang are well away from the big offices in Whitehall.
Shropshire is a rural constituency and I understand a lot of the protest came from those who are against this government's attitude towards British agriculture. Throwing farming under the bus to buy a crappy Australian trade deal is not the way to feed our nation in a sustainable way. All the farming folks on Twitter were cheering the result for this very reason. There is widespread disquiet from country folk with the Conservatives at the moment and I can see the Lib Dems gaining more seats if nothing else changes.
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Post by Big Blue on Dec 17, 2021 22:41:59 GMT
I was working as a waitress in a cocktail bar a betting shop cashier at Ladbrokes back in 1990 We really need to sort our respective histories out. I was on the Tote as the odds reckoner on Saturdays in the late ‘80s and did the football payouts. My mate managed the Fulham branch and another friend’s brother the one in Margaret Street. What kind of lives did those customers have 😬 |
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