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The EU
May 5, 2017 7:34:33 GMT
Post by johnc on May 5, 2017 7:34:33 GMT
The loss of the financial markets was always a fear for me when the UK voted to leave the EU.
This article sets out the confusion pretty well: www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39812120
Given that there is so much tax at stake for the UK economy (and actually much more than the article states because of the tax on the wages of the highly paid staff plus the VAT they pay on what they spend) and there is so much to gain by the EU by attracting these institutions to other European cities, does anyone believe we have any chance of getting a decent deal on leaving the EU?
The EU are even considering introducing rules which will force financial institutions to be based in the EU if their customer base is there (in much the same way as EU rules force banks to be headquartered where the majority of their customers are based)
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The EU
May 5, 2017 9:33:31 GMT
Post by racingteatray on May 5, 2017 9:33:31 GMT
None of this was not predictable or predicted. We have been busy advising clients (both public and private sector) on the legal ramifications of Brexit, including what will or might have to be moved out of the UK and when, and I can assure you that all these scenarios had been identified and discussed as risks well before the referendum. The horse has left the farm, let alone the stable, and yet it seems our political class is still wondering how to bolt the door...
Unfortunately, it seems to me the Pied Pipers of Brexit either wilfully ignored these consequences or were so ignorant of the way our interconnected world works, that they were blithely unaware of them.
As the old adage goes, "as you make your bed, so must you lie in it".
I know you all think I'm a ghastly Remoaner banging on about all these tedious realities. But in my line of work I cannot unknow what I know (and given client confidentiality requirements, often can't say what I know) and I simply cannot surrender to the irresponsibility of going along with the "oh it will all be fine and we should just get on with it" line.
At some point, we all need to collectively have the freezing shower. That doesn't necessarily mean not proceeding with Brexit. But it does require a public acknowledgment by the Brexiteers and the tabloids of the cold hard realities ahead. Only when we all do that, will we actually have a chance of actually sorting out the mess.
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The EU
May 5, 2017 10:22:37 GMT
Post by Boxer6 on May 5, 2017 10:22:37 GMT
None of this was not predictable or predicted. We have been busy advising clients (both public and private sector) on the legal ramifications of Brexit, including what will or might have to be moved out of the UK and when, and I can assure you that all these scenarios had been identified and discussed as risks well before the referendum. The horse has left the farm, let alone the stable, and yet it seems our political class is still wondering how to bolt the door... Unfortunately, it seems to me the Pied Pipers of Brexit either wilfully ignored these consequences or were so ignorant of the way our interconnected world works, that they were blithely unaware of them. As the old adage goes, "as you make your bed, so must you lie in it". I know you all think I'm a ghastly Remoaner banging on about all these tedious realities. But in my line of work I cannot unknow what I know (and given client confidentiality requirements, often can't say what I know) and I simply cannot surrender to the irresponsibility of going along with the "oh it will all be fine and we should just get on with it" line. At some point, we all need to collectively have the freezing shower. That doesn't necessarily mean not proceeding with Brexit. But it does require a public acknowledgment by the Brexiteers and the tabloids of the cold hard realities ahead. Only when we all do that, will we actually have a chance of actually sorting out the mess.
So, that will be as near to never as makes no difference then. Oh happy day . . .
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The EU
May 5, 2017 10:50:42 GMT
Post by Tim on May 5, 2017 10:50:42 GMT
I really doubt that any of the senior political or media types were unaware of the likelihood of things like this but I'm also fairly sure that they don't give a shit.
E.g. George Osborne has gone from a salary of £100k (ish) as Chancellor to £650k as an advisor to a US based investment bank, not to mention his 4 other jobs. There will be very many decision makers in similar positions.
Imagine as well someone like Rupert Murdoch's view - he's already proved he can influence voting and decisions through his media empire and presumably he'll be able to have greater influence once we're making all our own decisions rather than having to consider the European legalities of and choices or legislation.
I'm really not optimistic of where we're heading but don't have anything like a vague idea (let alone a clear one) of how bad it will be.
It's occurred to me that this 'Will of the people' crap that keeps getting trotted out applies more to the aftermath than the decision. Surely it's the unspoken Will of The People that our Brexit negotiators get the best deal for the populace rather than, apparently, pursuing a so-called 'Hard Brexit' that will probably leave most people worse off? If you gave the average voter a choice between the current situation, where some of our laws are dictated by Europe and there's 350k p.a. of immigration, and a post-Hard Brexit where we have full lawmaking power and immigration of (say) 200k p.a. BUT they'll be 5, 10 or 20% worse off I think most people would take the money.
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The EU
May 5, 2017 15:17:40 GMT
Post by Deleted on May 5, 2017 15:17:40 GMT
If the EU had not evolved as much, into a quasi nation like the US and started into the arena of positing a standing EU army with NO control from the contributing nations AND simplified regulations rather than obfuscating while wasting shed loads of money I would be surprised if we had not voted remain. They have done ALL of this and more and frankly the devolving of nationhood into a micro managed And financially raped region of a greater Europe that has already caused a war in the Ukraine and stress in the Balitic states. Joker and his rambling threats along with the rest of the cronies are trying to use our leaving as an example to the rest, this is what will happen if you abandon an already overfull lifeboat. They are cutting off their noses to spite the face as high tariffs etc will harm many European companies too and that will NOT be popular over there.
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The EU
May 5, 2017 16:00:09 GMT
Post by Tim on May 5, 2017 16:00:09 GMT
They are cutting off their noses to spite the face as high tariffs etc will harm many European companies too and that will NOT be popular over there. You're probably right about that but;-
1. The people making the decisions are EU, not national, government so presumably don't really care.
2. The losses will be split across companies in 27 countries (accepting that there will be more from, say, Germany than Greece) rather than 1 country on our side. Add that to point 1 and you get their current position.
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The EU
May 5, 2017 16:07:55 GMT
Post by racingteatray on May 5, 2017 16:07:55 GMT
If the EU had not evolved as much, into a quasi nation like the US and started into the arena of positing a standing EU army with NO control from the contributing nations AND simplified regulations rather than obfuscating while wasting shed loads of money I would be surprised if we had not voted remain. They have done ALL of this and more and frankly the devolving of nationhood into a micro managed And financially raped region of a greater Europe that has already caused a war in the Ukraine and stress in the Balitic states. Joker and his rambling threats along with the rest of the cronies are trying to use our leaving as an example to the rest, this is what will happen if you abandon an already overfull lifeboat. They are cutting off their noses to spite the face as high tariffs etc will harm many European companies too and that will NOT be popular over there. Oh I see. It's the EU's fault if Brexit doesn't work.
Actually, I assume that will be the Daily Wail's take on the matter.
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The EU
May 5, 2017 17:28:19 GMT
Post by Deleted on May 5, 2017 17:28:19 GMT
No, it will not be the EU's fault. They are just ramping up the hysteria to prevent other nations doing the same, how will they cope without our money coming in? We contribute 2% of our GDP to defence and have been doing for a long time, Germany only 1.2%. If there is an argument to use for getting out of the EU, wasting money and the move towards an EU nation and THAT we did NOT sign up for.
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The EU
May 5, 2017 18:04:10 GMT
Post by racingteatray on May 5, 2017 18:04:10 GMT
The question has never been about whether or not we are in a frying pan, but rather about whether Brexit constitutes jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire. On the evidence presented so far, I tend to the view that it does.
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The EU
May 5, 2017 20:06:25 GMT
Post by Deleted on May 5, 2017 20:06:25 GMT
From what I can see, both sides are well and truly in the fire. Cooler heads will be needed on both sides to find a solution rather than who has the biggest whatnot in the playground.
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The EU
May 5, 2017 21:19:40 GMT
via mobile
Post by racingteatray on May 5, 2017 21:19:40 GMT
From what I can see, both sides are well and truly in the fire. Cooler heads will be needed on both sides to find a solution rather than who has the biggest whatnot in the playground. Yes but the bigger problem is ours. To think otherwise is, whether you like it or not, delusional.
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The EU
May 6, 2017 7:06:25 GMT
Post by Deleted on May 6, 2017 7:06:25 GMT
I think people seem to think Britain is some great nation everyone wants to trade with.
Just as we see the future as trading outside the EU, so do the Germans. The present situation is selling as much as they can to us in the next two years then walk away and focus on China and countries were the population is young and growing, not ageing and shrinking.
My only thoughts around Brexit now are how do I protect myself and my family from it's effects. If you've a big mortgage and are in PAYE employment then right now I'd be afraid and making some new plans.
Remember those who voted for Brexit primarily had nothing to lose......
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The EU
May 7, 2017 9:42:32 GMT
Post by Deleted on May 7, 2017 9:42:32 GMT
We ALL have something to lose if this goes tits up. If the EU remainers (Nation wise) have such a strong hand, why are they over hyping everything? As a message to other nations? I think so.
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The EU
May 7, 2017 18:46:30 GMT
Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on May 7, 2017 18:46:30 GMT
Courtesy of this week's Private Eye. From their number crunching section:
60 billion Euros: European Parliament estimate of annual cost to Europe of corporate tax avoidance, largely orchestrated via Luxembourg tax system set up under current European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker.
60 billion Euros: EU estimate of UK'd Brexit bill, which Juncker tells PM Theresa May must be agreed before trade talks.
44 years: Length of time UK has been a member of the European Union.
4 minutes: Length of time EU nations took to approve guidelines for UK withdrawal from the EU.
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The EU
May 7, 2017 19:22:54 GMT
via mobile
Post by michael on May 7, 2017 19:22:54 GMT
I don't think we will get a good deal, as has been said we had that to begin with. So far as the EU is concerned I don't think we will get a deal at all. It'll hurt at some point but I'm not sure as to what extent I'll personally be affected. Given a third of the French electorate have voted for an extremist I would love to think the EU might have a word with itself about free movement but it seems more likely to fail than reform these days.
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The EU
May 8, 2017 8:08:29 GMT
Post by johnc on May 8, 2017 8:08:29 GMT
It's the security of the money in my pension pot and savings that worry me the most: I do not want another crash with 50% being wiped off its value and another 10 years of contributions just to get back to where I started. I'm getting too old for all that crap again and being self employed I have nothing other than what I provide for myself, all of which is to some extent exposed to world markets.
I also fear the loss of billions in tax revenue to the UK by the loss of highly paid jobs and sectors which have to be relocated to the EU to allow those businesses to continue to trade with the EU. If we have WTO trade tariffs all our imports are going to get a lot more expensive and our exports won't be as attractive overseas either. Trade deals can certainly be done but they will take many years and are unlikely to make much progress until we are out of the EU and the shape of our deal with the EU can be seen with clarity.
I wish I had a crystal ball.
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The EU
May 8, 2017 8:33:44 GMT
Post by alf on May 8, 2017 8:33:44 GMT
I don't think it will be as bad as some people make out - or at least it won't just be us. The US, China, and particularly the EU all face significant economic pressures, they won't all be in rude health laughing at our demise. Even Germany has massive demographic pressures that we (ironically largely due to immigration) do not.
Of course the negotiations will be rough (even rougher if we follow Corbyn's master negotiating tactic of giving away our best cards for nothing right at the start) and there will be short term pain, because business sentiment drives "the markets" and business sentiment likes certainly. But look back only as far as the 2008 crash, and the way tech companies failed to get financial backing in 2008/9 and onwards - now there are untold billions being invested again and flotations that in 2008 all the naysayers said would not happen again for a generation.
My support for the EU was more a support for the principles of free trade and movement than a supporting vote for the bloated, corrupt and - for the British taxpayer - incredibly expensive organisation it had become. And I can see the arguments for "hard" Brexit rather than just continuing to pay the same money for less influence, in the mid to long term I think it will be an advantage.
We will as a country need to get the basics right in that period of uncertainly when we are being beaten up - and that will mean reducing the deficit, and thus a lot more austerity. It makes me laugh that the Lib Dems and Labour regularly point to the current Government's poor record on bringing down the deficit (as if their plans would have done better!) but it's true the deficit has not come down fast enough, risking another 2008-style credit crunch which would cause more pain than Brexit alone. Plans to raise taxes on the rich tend to be counter productive in terms of actual tax take so forget that vote-winner. There will have to me more austerity and a realisation that you can only spend what you have, competing with the millions of shares on Facebook of every individual cut as if it was a deliberate attempt to hurt the poor. The poorest have hurt themselves by the way they voted, unfortunately.
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The EU
May 8, 2017 9:02:32 GMT
Post by Deleted on May 8, 2017 9:02:32 GMT
Those pressures are the reason for the increased pressure on the UK government to back down. They want our dosh pure and simple, so they can prop up their rhetoric re the open borders policy et al. No deal is certainly better than a bad deal as it will hasten the demise of the EU. THAT can not come soon enough.
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The EU
May 8, 2017 10:20:35 GMT
Post by Deleted on May 8, 2017 10:20:35 GMT
Those pressures are the reason for the increased pressure on the UK government to back down. They want our dosh pure and simple, so they can prop up their rhetoric re the open borders policy et al. No deal is certainly better than a bad deal as it will hasten the demise of the EU. THAT can not come soon enough. That isn't remotely their reasoning - the 'EU project' is more important than anything else to the council and must not be compromised at all costs. Being able to leave and be better off is possibly the biggest threat to the EU; the money they will resolve. It worries me that you think the Europe-wide economy collapsing is a good thing. Except he didn't say anything about a Europe-wide economy collapse.
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The EU
May 8, 2017 10:23:21 GMT
Post by Deleted on May 8, 2017 10:23:21 GMT
It's the security of the money in my pension pot and savings that worry me the most: I do not want another crash with 50% being wiped off its value and another 10 years of contributions just to get back to where I started. I'm getting too old for all that crap again and being self employed I have nothing other than what I provide for myself, all of which is to some extent exposed to world markets.
You could always switch funds within the plan. Almost all have cash funds that would protect you from any fall, and will allow free switching. They'll make bugger all, obviously, and if you call it wrong and markets advance you'll lose out that way (as you'd eventually end up switching back into a proper fund at higher prices), but you'll eliminate the potential for short term loss.
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The EU
May 8, 2017 10:54:29 GMT
Post by ChrisM on May 8, 2017 10:54:29 GMT
Will I have to get new number plates made up for my car, without the "GB" on blue background with gold stars in a circle?
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The EU
May 8, 2017 11:09:18 GMT
Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on May 8, 2017 11:09:18 GMT
This is one of those situations where one partner says to the other; "look I don't love you anymore and I'd like to leave this relationship but we have history and kids together so I'd like to maintain an ongoing civil relationship, pay my fair share and hopefully we can get along in the future." Meanwhile the "wronged" party is vowing to leave them penniless, deny access to the kids and make sure they never have a successful relationship with anyone else again. There's no such thing as an amicable divorce.
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The EU
May 8, 2017 11:19:57 GMT
Post by johnc on May 8, 2017 11:19:57 GMT
This is one of those situations where one partner says to the other; "look I don't love you anymore and I'd like to leave this relationship but we have history and kids together so I'd like to maintain an ongoing civil relationship, pay my fair share and hopefully we can get along in the future." Meanwhile the "wronged" party is vowing to leave them penniless, deny access to the kids and make sure they never have a successful relationship with anyone else again. There's no such thing as an amicable divorce. Oh so true in so many ways!
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The EU
May 8, 2017 12:14:40 GMT
Post by racingteatray on May 8, 2017 12:14:40 GMT
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The EU
May 8, 2017 12:34:00 GMT
Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on May 8, 2017 12:34:00 GMT
"If you hadn't got so fat and lazy over the last 40 years I wouldn't have to go and shag some oriental bird" FYP. FFYP
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The EU
May 8, 2017 12:45:47 GMT
Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on May 8, 2017 12:45:47 GMT
It's an interesting article that I read over the weekend, assumed it would end up here eventually. What it doesn't mention is the millions put into the Remain campaign by the likes of Bet365, Canary Wharf Group, Goldman Sachs as well as three other large investment banks. Or indeed the fact that older people were three times more likely to vote Leave than young people and they're also the least likely to use or be influenced by social media.
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The EU
May 8, 2017 12:47:52 GMT
Post by Big Blue on May 8, 2017 12:47:52 GMT
If you weren't such a spendthrift tart I wouldn't feel I'd be better off giving up some stability and taking my chances elsewhere.
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The EU
May 8, 2017 12:55:33 GMT
Post by Big Blue on May 8, 2017 12:55:33 GMT
It's an interesting article that I read over the weekend, assumed it would end up here eventually. What it doesn't mention is the millions put into the Remain campaign by the likes of Bet365, Canary Wharf Group, Goldman Sachs as well as three other large investment banks. Or indeed the fact that older people were three times more likely to vote Leave than young people and they're also the least likely to use or be influenced by social media. Like all meejah articles it's tainted in some way or another. I'll also point out that the "robbery of democracy" is a myth of some large proportion: democracy as we call it simply gives us the option to vote for the liars that we most agree with or mostly hope we can believe.
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The EU
May 8, 2017 13:12:54 GMT
Post by michael on May 8, 2017 13:12:54 GMT
The simplest way to explain the behavior of any bureaucratic organization is to assume that it is controlled by a cabal of its enemies - Conquest's 3rd law.
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The EU
May 8, 2017 16:49:54 GMT
Post by racingteatray on May 8, 2017 16:49:54 GMT
It's an interesting article that I read over the weekend, assumed it would end up here eventually. What it doesn't mention is the millions put into the Remain campaign by the likes of Bet365, Canary Wharf Group, Goldman Sachs as well as three other large investment banks. Or indeed the fact that older people were three times more likely to vote Leave than young people and they're also the least likely to use or be influenced by social media. It is an interesting article. I don't make greater claims for it than that.
As a counterpoint:
(i) putting millions into campaigns per se isn't the problem - the nature of the agenda is the problem. Without thinking very hard, I suspect most of us can conceive of many perfectly sound and non-nefarious commercial reasons why the aforementioned entities would prefer no Brexit. But the Brexit agenda is so extremely counter-intuitive and illogical when held to proper scrutiny that it starts to be very hard to escape the suspicion that it can't just be collective wilful lunacy on the part of the UK electorate and that there must be something else more fundamental (and nefarious) behind it, and thus start deep-diving down the nearest rabbit hole (which is where Cadwaladr is coming from); and
(ii) older people are much more likely to use or be influenced by print media than younger voters. Particularly such august tomes as the Daily Mail and the Daily Telegraph, which together with most of their competitors, were rabidly anti-EU and have been for years. On a brief survey, most people I know who voted leave also read the Daily Mail, particularly the ones who can't really proffer a convincing argument as to why they voted the way they did.
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