2018 F1 challenge r14: Italy discussion thread

Going by the practice times, probably.  Small chance of rain during qualifying but none for Sunday.

Title race is all but over now. Vettel lost it mentally; Ferrari out manoeuvred by Mercedes on pit stop timing to allow Hamilton to take 1st from Kimi. Vettel so het-up about losing Pole that his race was affected by his mental state. Won’t improve any.

Vettel massively struggles when the pressure is on.

Monza is often stale, not today. What a Grand Prix, when F1 is good, its really very good. I really like F1 in 2018, having the fastest car is not enough; the margin between Ferrari and Merc means that race-day execution is so important. It’s not like pre-2018 when Mercedes had such an advantage, they could make start or pitstop errors and still win.

I didn’t think that Vettel did much wrong at the second chicane; the car on the inside often gets pinched towards the kerb and spins out. Hamilton didn’t do anything wrong, Vettel was watching Raikkonen on the inside, had to slow up to avoid hitting him, and that allowed Hamilton to take the grippier racing line on the outside to draw alongside. When Hamilton got alongside at turn 4, he had the inside line for turn 5, which Vettel in hindsight should have recognised, rather than believing that Hamilton shouldn’t have been there.

People mention the qualifying errors for Vettel’s misfortune today. It should have been possible to race through that chicane without spinning out. Hamilton used to be a bit scrappy and desperate at times, but has since improved and keeps his nose clean these days. I still think that Vettel isn’t particularly great at wheel-to-wheel combat. I don’t just mean DRS-assisted passes on slower cars; I mean race-craft against much similar cars in speed. He doesn’t seem to enjoy racing in close quarters, and it shows. There is nobody better at opening a gap from pole and being untouchable from then on. However, get him in a dicey situation alongside someone and he keeps making silly contact.

Hamilton in 2018 reminds me of Alonso in 2010 and 2012. He might not have the fastest car in every race, but he keeps out of incidents and maximises what he has. Baku, Hockenheim, Hungary and Monza shouldn’t have been victories for Hamilton, but a combination of luck, mistakes from others and raw talent enabled him to win these races.

If I were the Tifosi and Ferrari, I would want Hamilton in my car. It might change as Hamilton gets older, but come rain or shine; Hamilton is arguably the finest of his generation along with Alonso. He wears questionable clothing, silly jewellery and isn’t particularly endearing. But this is a driving contest, and Hamilton scores pretty highly where it matters.

Ferrari's strategy with Raikkonen usually would have worked. Monza is always a one-stop with traditionally low degradation and wear, so pitting early isn't really a disadvantage. I think the overnight rain contributed to the heavier degradation and blistering, the tyres just didn't have the laid racing rubber they usually have. In the Porsche Supercup race, multiple cars had left-side punctures, and that was with durable Michelin's. Raikkonen understandably wanted to set fast outlaps to ensure he was ahead of Hamilton when he pitted. But in pushing so hard early on, he took too much life out of the tyres, and had a long way to drive until the end. It would have been interesting to see Raikkonen v Hamilton without Bottas' roadblock... 

It was interesting between Verstappen and Bottas in turn 1. Verstappen deserved the penalty in my view; he defended the inside, so Bottas went the outside. As Bottas went to the outside, Verstappen turned left and squeezed Bottas beyond the white line. Verstappen calmed down for a while, but still loves to chop and weave under braking. Defending a particular line is fine, nobody wants to ban battling, but continually changing your line is a recipe for disaster in single seaters.

I’m a bit concerned about the takeover of Force India. Lawrence Stroll seems to now call the shots, which means that Lance will end up there at some point, sooner rather than later. The concerning aspect is how the fantastic Ocon might be left without a drive, to accommodate Stroll. It isn’t good for F1, where someone there on genuine merit is being displaced by someone who is merely more appropriately connected. If Lawrence genuinely cares about his son’s reputation, he shouldn’t oust Ocon before Abu Dhabi and leave Stroll at Williams until then. Mercedes will probably find somewhere else for Ocon to go in 2019.

Eddie Jordan and Mallya had their respective faults, but they gave talented youngsters a chance and they went on to achieve great things. It would be a shame if team Stroll just became a pay-driver show.

My reaction to Kimi taking pole was very similar to Ben Edwards on C4. Great to see him finally get it together after so many missed opportunities, and under huge pressure too. It was a lovely lap, certainly aided by the tow, but Vettel was visibly scruffier and had their track positions been reversed it would have been mighty close.