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Post by Big Blue on Jan 16, 2024 9:25:27 GMT
Not necessarily cars, but EVs will be a part of the picture.
I was at an event last night and got talking to a chap and we got on to power. He'd worked for EDF and I've done some projects in the nuclear sector so it wasn't as strange a turn of conversation as it seems. Anyway, distribution was the topic. Many people of an EV-bent go into spasms on social media when you mention the subject of getting the power to the end user. It's apparently as easy as pie (according to them) and the draw is not much of a strain (according to them). I'm currently doing assurance on some large public facilities across the entire country and power upgrades are long term enabling works and not cheap. However this chap pointed out it isn't the amount of work required, not the capability to produce electricity but the issue with making that electricity you've made leave the power generation site and get to the houses, offices, car chargers, steel furnaces (yes: they want them to run on electricity....) etc. The world has not got enough copper. Like physically not enough. The extent of this means there are projects looking at mining hot copper from the trenches at the bottom of the oceans; that the ore yields are 10%-20% of what they were and that new projects replacing copper need to do more to recover the old stuff.
All very interesting. We then got on to silicon and apparently China spent more on silicon last year than the price of all Middle Eastern oil revenues. Not really fact checked that yet but it sounds like the type of thing they would do.
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Post by Tim on Jan 16, 2024 10:39:42 GMT
I've got some copper pipe in the shed for plumbing emergencies. Perhaps I should cash it in
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Jan 16, 2024 10:51:31 GMT
Aluminium has 60% of the conductivity of copper, but 30% of the weight and, as the most abundant metal on Earth, is far cheaper. The weight advantage means aluminium is used for overhead transmission lines taking the power from the generating location to the factory, office etc and, increasingly, for aviation and automotive applications. In fact, when I worked on EDF's West Burton CC Gas Station all the busbars were 99.99% pure aluminium - I still have some of the weld test pieces in my garage. I guess what I'm saying is; copper is not the sole option.
Increasingly the huge subsea interconnectors are made from strands of aluminium wire, not copper.
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Post by Alex on Jan 16, 2024 17:36:09 GMT
It's no wonder you can't leave copper lying about these days without it being half inched. I'm not surprised that it's becoming scarce. There's been talk of copper shortages for years.
I remember reading some years ago that the next big thing in charging devices / cars etc was going to be contactless wireless charging through induction loops. The theory was you would have a panel on your wall with the loop inside and anything in the room would be able to draw power from it wherever it was in the room. Not sure where they've got with that or whether it is actually safe but I'm guessing that in theory it would massively reduce how much electrical cables were needed. I suppose the issue is how long it would take to switch all our devices over and in the meantime existing kit would all need adapters that use more copper.
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Post by rodge on Jan 16, 2024 18:52:47 GMT
In my last job, we designed and built a lot of high end electrical panels for commercial use. Theres a lot of work getting one of these built, and then you have the data systems that control the flow of energy through them. Multiply that from a factory scale where there are thousands of these, to a full distribution network that has to carry high voltage over large distances, therefore incurring loss on the way, mainly due to resistance in its many forms, and then change it into a contactless method of charging, is not efficient use of energy. We found over the last year I worked there, that copper wire and busters were shooting up in price so I’ve no idea what they would cost now. Interesting few years ahead, watching how they overcome the issues they face.
I wonder if truly good engineering solutions will surface and become the new standard or will the need to meet ever more stupid regulations scupper them? I sincerely hope it’s the former.
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Post by Alex on Jan 16, 2024 22:23:51 GMT
Just doing a Google search for what will replace copper throws up aluminium as the obvious answer so I imagine that's where it'll go. Interesting though to see that carbon nanotubes are also being cited as a possibility. If that's the case it could be a useful way to deal with all the carbon that is supposed to be being harvested from carbon capture technologies in the future. That's the theory at least. But like with nuclear fusion, its getting it to work that's the problem. Just glad that it's a lot smarter people than me working on it.
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Post by LandieMark on Jan 17, 2024 8:46:13 GMT
Aluminium cable was used in houses many years ago. It was stopped due to oxidisation and fire risk. Presumably the modern stuff has solved that issue.
I remember having a house rewired and the old rubber clad aluminium cable could be snapped by hand as it got that brittle with age.
Out local EVangelist swears by solar as it is free electricity - "no brainer". He is somewhat quiet when asked about the cost of his solar installation and after deducting the cost of this when exactly his electricity becomes "free".
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Jan 17, 2024 11:12:55 GMT
Aluminium cable was used in houses many years ago. It was stopped due to oxidisation and fire risk. Presumably the modern stuff has solved that issue. Yes, I believe an anti-oxidation compound at terminations solves this. That said; the copper in a domestic dwelling is negligible in the grand scheme of things. I think aluminium has been used for overhead distribution cables pretty much from the start.
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Post by alf on Jan 18, 2024 11:20:38 GMT
I doubt copper will be the big issue - for EV production Lithium and other metals have been cited as big bottlenecks, science is clever about finding alternatives. I've also been in meetings with senior National Grid people who are blase about the overall demand issue from us all having EV's.
That said, for companies operating fleets, the transtion to EV (consultancy around the planning for which is becoming the greater part of my role now) will be a total game changer. Companies think in terms of EV's and chargers, much less about power overall. Getting enough power into enough commercial vehicles, fast enough and in the right places, will be a huge challenge, and operating an electric fleet will be fundamentally different from operating an ICE one. Electricity is fundamentally different from diesel - it has a half hourly spot price, huge variations in price throughout a 24hr cycle, can be self-generated and stored in a variety of ways, and potentially sold back to the grid if not needed. And yes it is slow to get into the vehicles, which themselves display hugely different ranges depending on load, conditions, and especially how they are driven. About one percent of the million commercial vehicles we have Telematics in are EV, and given how few vehicle change cycles there are until its mandatory, you would be amazed how few companies with big fleets are remotely organised about it - despite the fact that even with today's tech and prices, it can work out cheaper, if done properly. And while at a high level science will find alternatives, at an individual business level if you need power upgrades to your site, or even a fleet of EV's in a hurry, you might be waiting years. There are enough unseen changes in business, how they fail to plan even for the known changes properly, amazes me.
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Post by Tim on Jan 18, 2024 13:57:01 GMT
The senior National Grid people are probably blase about it because they're looking to their next move and it'll be someone elses problem!
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