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Post by alf on Jun 7, 2023 16:29:43 GMT
It looks rather like the much-hyped Ukranian counter offensive is in its early stages, and the Ukranians are on good tactical form again with their various probing attacks along a wide front, and the distraction raids into Russia. They made huge ground in last year's counter offensive, with a shit tonne of modern Western weapons this time, and the Russians having spent most of the last year degrading their best forces trying to fight for a pointless minor city, it seems likely they will go through the defences like a hot knife through butter.
Which is something of a concern, as the destruction of the dam yesterday makes it clear that Putin is happy to raise the stakes with yet more high-profile war crimes. To put it in perspective, remember the non-stop news reporting of that dam in England a few years back that nearly burst, and might have taken out a small village? Putin's actions just flooded 40,000 people. Many of them people he declares to be Russian after the, ahem, "referendum". And it seems unlikely to me that crossing the Dnipro was ever the likely main axis of advance, splitting the Russian zone by going down the coast near Mariupol makes far more sense.
Some of the reporting yesterday focused on this being against the Geneva conventions, a war crime, and a crime against the planet. Which it is - however what could be a lot worse is blowing up Europe's largest power plant at Zaporizhzhia, under Russian control on the left bank of the Dnipro river. Putin is too clever not to realise his neck is on the block over the military incomptenence made clear by what he did in Ukraine (as evidenced by the Russian army's total failure to defend even its own territory recently). I can't see him caring about the consequences of another Chernobyl-sized nuclear disaster, especially as it meets the very low bar the Russian regime seems to need for "plausible" deniability, they will simply say the Ukranians did it, and on recent evidence many Russians will believe that, after their non step diet of crap about how the West started this.
I do see the dam, and especially a threat to the power station, as a major escalation. To the extent that I think NATO, the US, and the EU now need to come out plainly and say that any use of weapons of mass destruction, or equivalent destruction of infrastructure like a nuclear power station, will lead to direct military action by NATO in Ukraine. That, to me, seems logical, and far prefferable to the current game of "wait and see what Putin does next".
Hopefully this will be it, and the offensive will be so overwhelmingly successful that Russia will turn its attentions to conventional warfare again - badly - but it's starting to look to me like the sooner this is over, the better. NATO could immediately offer immense cruise missile/airstrike support, that would dwarf the effect a few HIMARS have had and make a real difference without necessarily needing boots on the ground, though that might also be necessary.
What do you guys think??
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Post by Big Blue on Jun 7, 2023 20:18:46 GMT
The dam break has caused huge disruption in an area largely under Russian control in an area disputed by Russia as being “Russian” and inhabited by Russian speakers.
Bearing in mind war is brutal and senseless, are we convinced it was a Russian move? I especially say this as Zelensky is anxious to invoke more physical support from neighbouring states that are NATO members, whilst NATO is happy to support supply chains to Ukraine but unwilling to be actively involved unnecessarily.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2023 20:29:25 GMT
Putin's tactics have been one dimensional since he started this with some Russians believing that there is a pro west clicque in real power behind the throne. Removing a lot of his old guard for me, demonstrates paranoia and concern for a coup against him. He is in a similar position to Hitler, being more of a liability to his side than anything else.
The dam dam, is something that shows how desperate the military situation is for Russia. They have a huge reserve of kit on paper but, there have been numerous senior ministers/officers taken to task for stealing and selling off military kit from engines, aircraft engines and up to tanks and helicopters. Nothing new it's been happening since the breakup of the soviet union at the very least.
Considering the effects of the attack on wagner group by the Russian army recently, as they pulled out of Bakhmut, there is a risk of sepratist groups like those recently in action inside Russia to seize the political initiative and remove Putin in a coup de main which would really put the cat among the pigeons.
It looks likely that Russia will lose this war. The movement to older style tanks can only happen so quickly and even tho' folk talk about the nukmber of T-62 tanks produced, you are really only looking at a small percentage that were available for upgrade and these come from the pool used in the Chechen war. A load have been captured by the Ukrainians and they have so many now they are runbning out of places to upgrade them and are now converting them to heavy IFV along the lines of the T-72 based BMP-T of which the Russians had nine or ten at the beginning of this conflict. Several destroyed, some by the Russians when they broke down. Spares you see, stolen and sold on the black market.
More modern kit has been hit by the shortage of modern electonic componentry which surprisingly, comes from the west. Those bright shiny T-90 tanks have inferior optice and computer componentry so they will not be as affective as the types used in the vanguard of the invasion and lost.
The newest T14 Armarta has been cancelled. The engine is a failure and due to the transverse location opf the engine, there is no suitable replacement that will fit.
The PRC has recently purchased tens of thousands of Shaheed drones from Iran which makes no sense for the PRC, cheaper for them to make the things locally if that is for their own use. Must be for Russia then. This informs of the type of war the Russians see themselves fighting and it is NOT a traditional engagement.
Given the likelihood of either a Ukrainian win or a forced stalemate from supporting nations, there will be a need for peacekeeping operations and some sort of enforced migration for those wishing to remain Russian within the Ukraine. Not all ethnic Russians in the Ukraine support Putin so this is going to be a tricky situation to police.
If supporting nations want Ukraine to end this bloody war, we have to give more support and better support to give Ukraine the momentum to put the Russian military completely off balance to enable momentum to break the forces remaining quickly thus preventing the offensive from bogging down.
A complex situation but, more so due to the inability of the supporting nations to decide to do more sooner.
There will be a shed load of organisaions looking to get into the Ukraine when this is done, all that world bank etc money going begging, a real bloody bun fight.
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Post by ChrisM on Jun 7, 2023 21:36:20 GMT
The UN has once again proved itself to be totally useless at preventing war.
Having recently posted about the IT hack that originated in Russia, I fear that the only way the war will end is if someone takes out Putin, for it appears that he is determined to erase the Ukraine from the face of the earth
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2023 21:43:37 GMT
If Putin crawls out of this with anything, he will be going after other nations like the Baltic states etc later.
Turns out they jammed and took out their own drone. They have also shot down at least four helicopters and two fast jet strike aircraft.
Paranoia.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Jun 8, 2023 10:05:05 GMT
To some extent I'm more pessimistic. The Russians have time on their side, they can afford to let this drag on for years. Their economy is largely unaffected by sanctions, they've used criminals and private military contractors to plug the gaps while they train a new, 300k strong army, and ramp up their production of military equipment. That's in addition to the vast stockpiles of shells built up during the Cold War. They can sit back and fire huge artillery barrages, adopting a scorched earth policy, to wipe out Ukrainian forces and claim territory. We've been told the Russians are running out of missiles but they seem to be able to send over dozens at a time (and drones) to use up the valuable missile defence systems deployed around Kiev and other cities. How many patriot missiles does the West have? What happens when they are depleted? They seem to be getting smarter with their tactics and countermeasures - I read that Ukraine is losing 300 drones a day to electronic warfare. OK, they're mostly small, commercial recon drones but that's a huge amount. We're not hearing much about the Storm Shadow missiles - reports are coming in they've been pretty much neutralised.
The Russians know that the longer they drag this out the more the support grows for them in the ROW outside Europe and America, there is likely to be a Republican in the White House in 2024, which will probably massively reduce US aid, causing the Europeans to consider how long they can continue this alone? Plus, the West never does well in long, drawn out conflicts - the electorate become bored, belts get tightened, Governments change etc.
I have a horrible feeling the Russian held territories will have to be ceded to them, with Crimea, and Ukraine will have to try and re-build as a smaller nation, terribly crippled by debt and a wrecked economy.
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Post by Tim on Jun 8, 2023 11:23:42 GMT
I have a horrible feeling the Russian held territories will have to be ceded to them, with Crimea, and Ukraine will have to try and re-build as a smaller nation, terribly crippled by debt and a wrecked economy. While all the while waiting for the next Russian attack once they've built up their forces again, followed by Poland and the Baltics? I think that's the reason Russia will be stopped. If 'we' give in to them now they'll just continue and where do we draw the red line? I'm fairly sure Storm Shadow has been used effectively its just that 'our' side isn't crowing about it and the Russkies don't want to draw attention to its effects. |
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Post by alf on Jun 8, 2023 11:27:53 GMT
The dam break has caused huge disruption in an area largely under Russian control in an area disputed by Russia as being “Russian” and inhabited by Russian speakers. Bearing in mind war is brutal and senseless, are we convinced it was a Russian move? I especially say this as Zelensky is anxious to invoke more physical support from neighbouring states that are NATO members, whilst NATO is happy to support supply chains to Ukraine but unwilling to be actively involved unnecessarily. I don't think it's remotely credible that it was done by Ukraine, I think you would have to be sociopathic/probably psychopathic to make such a decision and my sense is that Zelensky does deeply care for his people. They are also the side preparing for an offensive, indeed well prepared for it, not in the desperation of probably being about to lose. I heard it was announced on Russian news as a deliberate Russian action, before the storyline was changed in response to the intertnational condemnation. The dam was under Russian control, and footage shows a controlled explosion of planted explosives, rather unliklely to have been Ukrainian special forces as you would need several truck loads of explosives, carefully positioned, to do this - a HIMARS attack or something like that is barely going to scratch it. There is already talk that the US is likely to release intelligence data - officially - in the same way they did before the invasion, to publicy make the case. Whereas when it came to Nordstream, people were a lot less sure there and now it looks like it may well not have been the Russian regime - but Nordstream had ecomomic impact, it did not flood 40,000 people's homes. I get that the Ukrainians play the game - there have been drone strikes and sabotage within Russia from the start of this, setting fire to things and so on, then more recently there have been more open drone attacks then these "Russian freedome fighters" attacking Belgorod - in some cases using NATO supplied weapons. People turn a blind eye to that as its simply good tactics, spreading Russia;s forces ahead of an ffensive, and anyway Russia is conceited if it thinks it can start a major war in Europe, then play it out entirely in that theatre and not on home soil. And its not specifically targetting mass civilian casualties, its proportionate within the Geneva Conventions. Whereas: Russia has openly carried out war crimes aimed entirely at civilians, ordered at the highest level - bombing the theatre in Mariupol for example, and endless missile strikes not only on power infrastructure (a sort of credible target) but directly on housing and shopping centres. They have murdered and raped their way across the entire occupiued part of the country. Does anyone think Putin would not flood tens of thousands of people if it suited him? His main love - the USSR - did exactly the same, to the same river, in WW2, to him its just "if I can't have it, I'll break it". One thing that backfires on the Russians, I think, is their false propoganda - if they are already claiming that NATO is in Ukraine (which many Russians believe), and that Ukraine is raiding Russian soil - which they reported ages ago with little evidence - when it actually happens, they can't present it as an escalation, which is unfortunate for them... |
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Post by alf on Jun 8, 2023 11:48:01 GMT
To some extent I'm more pessimistic. The Russians have time on their side, they can afford to let this drag on for years. Their economy is largely unaffected by sanctions, they've used criminals and private military contractors to plug the gaps while they train a new, 300k strong army, and ramp up their production of military equipment. That's in addition to the vast stockpiles of shells built up during the Cold War. They can sit back and fire huge artillery barrages, adopting a scorched earth policy, to wipe out Ukrainian forces and claim territory. We've been told the Russians are running out of missiles but they seem to be able to send over dozens at a time (and drones) to use up the valuable missile defence systems deployed around Kiev and other cities. How many patriot missiles does the West have? What happens when they are depleted? They seem to be getting smarter with their tactics and countermeasures - I read that Ukraine is losing 300 drones a day to electronic warfare. OK, they're mostly small, commercial recon drones but that's a huge amount. We're not hearing much about the Storm Shadow missiles - reports are coming in they've been pretty much neutralised. The Russians know that the longer they drag this out the more the support grows for them in the ROW outside Europe and America, there is likely to be a Republican in the White House in 2024, which will probably massively reduce US aid, causing the Europeans to consider how long they can continue this alone? Plus, the West never does well in long, drawn out conflicts - the electorate become bored, belts get tightened, Governments change etc. I have a horrible feeling the Russian held territories will have to be ceded to them, with Crimea, and Ukraine will have to try and re-build as a smaller nation, terribly crippled by debt and a wrecked economy. I agree with much of that - the risk of a long drawn out war is huge - unless the Russian people lose the stomach for the casualties. Sanctions have not worked as expected, economically or militarily. i have worried about Bakhmut and battles like that, if (as per Western intelligence) the casualties are more 1.5:1 or 2:1 - not the 4 or 5:1 Ukraine claims, it can't afford more Bakhmuts. Russia, sadly, can. Its another reason things need to be brought to a conclusion, a defeat of the scale that Russia cannot even "fake news" their way out of. The bit I don't agree with is about Storm Shadow - we don't have many, the Ukrainians have very few launch platforms for them, it was always going to have a limited impact on high value targets only. I don't for one minute share the views of papers like the "Eurasian Times" and others (Indian, Russian, and Chinese mostly) that flood the internet with stories about how incredible Russian weapon systems are, how they have dealt with NATO level weaponry with aplomb, and so on. They seem to have their own reasons for just being a mouthpiece for Russian propoganda whereas in fact, time and time again, the Russians have been given a bloody nose by outnumbered Ukrainians using similar, but much more outdated, versions of what they use themselves. Russian kit, and especially the training and motivation of their people, has been an epic failure. Western kit has proved extremely handy, especially bearing in mind HIMARS etc are 20-30 years old. Direct invovlement of Western air forces, and armoured brigades, would be utterly devestating to the Russians, who can't handle the kit we had in the first Gulf War. Look at the pace of digital development since then, and the sheer number of modern weapons the US has. Believe the Eurasian Times et al, and Russia is winning the war every 10 minutes. Only, it isnt........... full scale NATO involvement could. Also, Patriot missiles are indeed expensive and finite. But one effect of this war has been to dramatically increase Western defence spending, and foster new co-operation between allies, and systems. Various distributed air defence systems exist that can use things like AMRAAM (previous air to air) missiles supplement the more expensive Patriot, and the writing is on the wall for future conflicts - as the Israelis know, you need the capability to take down low tech inbound ordnance over and over again. There is huge investment in this, and only using systems in a real scenario proves military kit works, so I don't see the flow being switched off. Because what is the alternative? We allow Russia to succeed in taking land. China takes Taiwan. Russia takes the Baltic States. It just goes on and on, and costs the West far more than the support currently being given to Ukraine. History proves appeasement fails. |
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Post by PG on Jun 8, 2023 12:15:51 GMT
To some extent I'm more pessimistic. The Russians have time on their side, they can afford to let this drag on for years. ..... ...I have a horrible feeling the Russian held territories will have to be ceded to them, with Crimea, and Ukraine will have to try and re-build as a smaller nation, terribly crippled by debt and a wrecked economy. I agree with much of that - the risk of a long drawn out war is huge.... ...Because what is the alternative? We allow Russia to succeed in taking land. China takes Taiwan. Russia takes the Baltic States. It just goes on and on, and costs the West far more than the support currently being given to Ukraine. History proves appeasement fails. The Russians view life as cheap. They can see no issue in just grinding the Ukrainians down over years if they have to. And while a big percentage of the Russian population believe the propoganda they are fed, the war can drag on. And the war is a long way removed from European citizens who have mostly (in my view) no stomach for a war with Russia. Appeasement does fail, but we say that always with the benefit of hindsight. At the time, people want to avoid war in any way they can, up until the point as which their own survival is threatened. So until / if Putin attacks a NATO country, direct NATO involvement is a non-starter. I would like to see Putin thrown back and defeated, but the dam blast shows that when he is on the defensive he (and his generals) will resort to any form of atrocity to stay in Ukraine. Therefore some form of bodged peace is the only viable solution. Better that a smaller Ukraine can align to the West openly than years of conflict. The opportunity for total defeat of Putin was lost when the West sat back when Crimea was annexed. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2023 12:31:20 GMT
Appeasement, a brokered peace, call it what you like but in the end it is going to be kicking the can down the road where it will cost a damn sight more and leave more countries in the doldrums for longer.
The only way to have any sort of proper peace and security is to chop Putin's 'nads off now and make sure Russia, or whatever they will call themselves, is on no fit state to ruin more contries and lives.
The so called alternative will ruin more than Russia.
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Post by Tim on Jun 8, 2023 12:45:36 GMT
I have a horrible feeling the Russian held territories will have to be ceded to them, with Crimea, and Ukraine will have to try and re-build as a smaller nation, terribly crippled by debt and a wrecked economy. While all the while waiting for the next Russian attack once they've built up their forces again, followed by Poland and the Baltics? I think that's the reason Russia will be stopped. If 'we' give in to them now they'll just continue and where do we draw the red line? I'm fairly sure Storm Shadow has been used effectively its just that 'our' side isn't crowing about it and the Russkies don't want to draw attention to its effects. I should've mentioned here that regarding the US in particular the Ukraine war and supplying of existing kit has led to a ramping up of production of replacement gear so its probably worth bearing in mind that no matter if some of the more extreme fringe of the GOP is practically pro-Russia a large chunk of politicians will be reminded by their sponsors from the military equipment field that all this new Government money is gives them a nice warm fuzzy feeling |
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Post by chipbutty on Jun 8, 2023 13:08:54 GMT
Putin is China’s pet.
China is hoovering up Russian oil and gas on the cheap and the sanctions on Russia are now largely pointless as China supplies everything (cars, etc, etc).
So this will go on as long as China decides it wants to - then when the music stops it will just help itself to whatever is left in Russian territories.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2023 13:51:09 GMT
Which will gop on only as long as they are allowed to get away with it. Putin is toast as soon as the folk who did have money realise that the gravy train ain't coming back around and the the PRC loses any hold it had.
Good luck getting hold of Russian assets then.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Jun 8, 2023 14:03:56 GMT
Which will gop on only as long as they are allowed to get away with it. Putin is toast as soon as the folk who did have money realise that the gravy train ain't coming back around and the the PRC loses any hold it had. Good luck getting hold of Russian assets then. I don't know if you've seen some of the characters lurking in the background, ready to step in if Putin is toppled, they're arguably worse.  |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2023 14:36:41 GMT
Yes and those who want to be in power will move if they see imminent danger to their version of the motherland. For their own gain but if the PRC gets to properly own Russia, the dominoes fall.
If Russian power moves fail the PRC will have to back down too.
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