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Post by alf on Feb 24, 2023 11:39:26 GMT
You can see the results of the latest UN vote here: www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/24/un-tells-russia-to-leave-ukraine-how-did-countries-voteThe handful of "against" votes are predictable enough, but some of the abstainers are extremely disappointing. How some democracries themselves threatened by autocracies (like India) can not vote in favour of criticising an aggressor invading a democratic country, is beyond me. It matters too - I hgave seen Russians saying that, because India and China will not vote against the war, that "the majority of the world's population are with us". Even worse, polls regularly show that around half the world's population (even a third in some western countries directly threatened by Russia) think "The West", the US, or NATO was to blame for starting the war. China is predictable enough but some of those abstainers are suprising and concerning, and also take tonnes of money from the West in aid, support, and trade/tourism. I don't fancy giving my tourist dollars to somewhere like Ethiopia, Sri Lanka, South Africa or Vietnam (to pick four I'd otherwise love to visit) after this. I get how people may not like the US, or Europe, and blame us for historical physical and current economic imperialism, but as with so many of the weirdo whiners in the West, its shows a huge lack of perspective to be more annoyed by a McDonalds than the rape, sack and murder of tens of thousands of civilians, whole cities, and blatant physical imperialism in this day and age, all backed up with threats of nuclear armageddon. China is clearly a massive geopolitical issue for the west. We need to be very careful to maintain a technological edge over them, otherwise its debateable whether being so closely linked to their growing wealth might protect us from them doing something like Russia has - Russia basically sells energy and the sanctions against them have done very little in the short term, in the face of the energy prices going up. If we isolate China too much, they may have less to lose. I'm glad its not something I need to work out! A recent BBC story that purported to be about age group conflict in Russia over support for the war, said that 62% of young people and 75% of older ones (roughly, from memory) supported the war. Which is also highly depressing as it shows that after all those casualties, and atrocities, and sanctions, Russians overwhelmingly believe the tripe they are being fed. I had hoped the effects of sanctions and the body count and the duration of the war would have had a very different effect by now, it had seemed Russians were possibly unwilling to take big casualties. All of which suggests to me that unless there is a fairly sudden home-grown action within Russia to remove Putin and install something very different (i.e. not the Wagner boss or similar crony, which is as likely as the Allies accepting Himmler replacing Hitler in 1945), this war will drag on. I can see the possibility of Ukraine making major progress on the battlefield, but the ongoing cost to themselves will be huge, and I dopn't want to know what lunacy Putin may come up with when Crimea is re-taken and Ukrainaian armoured columns are on his (actual) border. If China directly supplies Russia with weapons, in scale, that would be another depressing turning point that could even require NATO invovlement on the ground or air, within Ukraine, if this is ever to end. Again, where that would go is anyone's question. We have to remember we see it from one side, it may be the (relative) side of truth and justice, but billions see it differently and I still fear where this will all go, and see a chance it will all still end very horribly - for Europe, possibly the world. Some of the commentary about how bad a state Russia is in, how many casualties they are taking, and predicting an early end to the war, are looking at it from a much more rational angle than Putin himself is.... |
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Post by johnc on Feb 24, 2023 12:31:40 GMT
You have to remember that the people casting their vote at the UN are the leaders/Government of these countries and for many of them it is all about self interest and maintaining relations with other countries they might want to do a deal with at some stage or are already involved with. I don't believe for a minute that the people of these countries believe that Russia are right to invade Ukraine unless they have been brain washed with the Russian propaganda too.
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Post by Ben on Feb 24, 2023 12:38:14 GMT
You have to remember that the people casting their vote at the UN are the leaders/Government of these countries and for many of them it is all about self interest and maintaining relations with other countries they might want to do a deal with at some stage or are already involved with. I don't believe for a minute that the people of these countries believe that Russia are right to invade Ukraine unless they have been brain washed with the Russian propaganda too. Pretty much this. Many countries also don't necessarily see things from the Western perspective too. For example, Vietnam is Communist and obviously has some anti-American sentiment. Sri Lanka is hugely dependent on Chinese investment and so would naturally be cautious about pandering to the West. |
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Post by Tim on Feb 24, 2023 15:26:22 GMT
I hadn't realised until very recently that S Africa was fairly pro Russia.
They had joint naval exercises a couple of weeks ago.
I've read a lot about Rusiia in the last 12 months and am continually astounded at the approach of their citizens.
The thinking appears to be that rather than looking at somewhere like Ukraine as it improves itself and the citizens standard of living improves and wanting to improve themselves the Russian mindset is more along the lines of 'look at those uppity fuckers over there, who do they think they are, lets fuck it up for them and bring them down to our level'.
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Post by PG on Feb 24, 2023 15:39:22 GMT
Sentiment in the West and elsewhere reminds me of the Cold War era. Within the West, some people see the West as aggressor in anything that happens. Ban the Bomb, Greenham Commmon, the view of people like Corbyn and his ilk - their views are depressingly common I am afraid. Elsewhere, many countries' leaders pander to the Russians and Chinese as again, they view the West as somehow the bad guys.
Since the Cold War ended, too many Western countries, including our own but excluding the US, have been happy to spend the "peace dividend" on social welfare and other vanity stuff. Whereas defence of the realm is the first basic requirement of all governments. I fear we have some very rude awakenings coming our way.
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Post by johnc on Feb 24, 2023 15:47:08 GMT
The thinking appears to be that rather than looking at somewhere like Ukraine as it improves itself and the citizens standard of living improves and wanting to improve themselves the Russian mindset is more along the lines of 'look at those uppity fuckers over there, who do they think they are, lets fuck it up for them and bring them down to our level'. That is the very definition of Communism |
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Post by woofwoof on Feb 24, 2023 17:44:50 GMT
I think part of the problem in some parts of the west is that communism is cool and it's only the far right who are the haters. If the evils and failures of communism and the more extreme implementations of socialism were taught, viewed and criticised the same as those of the far right then perhaps we'd have more balanced commentators and protestors?
Why communism is cool and why it seems perfectly acceptable to be a "literal communist" I just don't know. Melted brain syndrome perhaps? Like young people wearing Che Guevara shits seeming not caring if he was a racist child murderer. Allegedly.
Sections of UK society have for a long time leaned left or even far left and I suppose there's an argument for believing the young are to a degree influenced by left leaning teachers and lecturers and so on it goes? I can't see that improving to a more balanced approach any time soon.
And add to that Israel and it's a slippery slope to anti Semitism and blaming the UK and the USA for Russian wars.
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Post by Big Blue on Feb 24, 2023 17:56:05 GMT
Fascism takes the mentality of fear and makes it into policy that panders to those fears: “Look at those people that are from another place. They want your life. Let us do what we want and in return we’ll protect you from them.”
Communism takes the mentality of jealousy and panders to it. “Look at them: they’ve got more than you, no matter how they came by it. Let us do what we want and we’ll make sure you all have the same as one another.”
The west has been stable for so long with such increased expectations of living standards that the politics of division are the only way for those that seek power to maintain meaningful control over the population.
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Post by Alex on Feb 24, 2023 18:02:33 GMT
The Russian mindset is more along the lines of 'look at those uppity fuckers over there, who do they think they are, lets fuck it up for them and bring them down to our level'. That is the very definition of Communism It's often thought that the Russians are being brainwashed into believing that the war, sorry "special military operation", is actually going well and that its purely a defensive measure but actually I think a lot of them DO know exactly what is happening and all the body bags full of young Russian men coming back from the front just increases their anger and hatred of the Ukrainian people rather than any criticism of Putin. When Biden says that this is Putins war not the Russians I think he's got it wrong. As for how this plays out I still don't know. There were talks before of Putin needing an off-ramp but I don't see how he can back down AND remain on this mortal coil. In Russian doctrine to retreat is to surrender and to surrender is weak and in the Russian government the weak cannot survive. Putin is arguably the wealthiest man on earth and many of his cronies not far behind but its stolen money and if he loses the war he will he found out and he will die. So the only way this goes is that he doubles down and I think this year if the Ukrainian armed forces don't start losing ground and continue to use Nato weapons against the Russians there's a very real chance that the Russian regime will sanction the use of some very nasty weapons, possibly nuclear but also likely chemical. The Chinese might be talking about peace but Putin cannot broker this in any sort of way that could ever be acceptable to Ukraine. The only peace Putin will accept is the four regions in the Donbas and Crimea being officially part of Russia and Ukraine taking the blame for the war with all Russian forces being absolved of any responsibility for war crimes and damage to civilian infrastructure. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2023 19:45:27 GMT
Pro Russian posts on defence related fori have very recently changed tack. Previously they majored on the 'war' or 'Special military operation' being a Russian civil matter. Just recently they have been saying that if Russia loses the war, we will have to deal with a much stronger PRC.
Apparently we should be telling the Ukrainians that they should be happy being Russian so that the 'status quo' returns to the state where Russia is able to do what it wants and all is apparently good in the world. Including the PRC being able to remove Taiwan from the geo political map.
No, I don't get it either.
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Post by ChrisM on Feb 24, 2023 20:55:03 GMT
I hadn't realised until very recently that S Africa was fairly pro Russia. They had joint naval exercises a couple of weeks ago. Really? BRICS - Brasil, Russia, India, China, South Africa..... a strong trade group and we are in deep trouble if they all take the same side in the current war. Worryingly South Africa seems to be siding with Russia in as much as it's not taking action or making noises to reduce hostilities - and participating in joint naval exercises |
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Feb 25, 2023 10:35:40 GMT
I think we’re spiralling down into a larger conflict. If the huge Chinese manufacturing base starts cranking out arms for the Russians- who themselves are slow starters and will start producing again in quantity, then we’re in trouble. NATO’s stocks are running low so, if we want to continue this conflict then we have to put our manufacturing base on a war footing and start producing artillery shells and missiles in record quantities. It feels like 1939.
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Post by michael on Feb 25, 2023 12:00:05 GMT
I’m not sure the manufacture of weapons is consistent with the legally binding net zero targets this country has imposed upon itself.
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Post by Ben on Feb 25, 2023 13:53:58 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2023 18:50:19 GMT
His views are too simplistic but that is not something he is alone in.
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Post by PG on Feb 26, 2023 20:29:10 GMT
I think we’re spiralling down into a larger conflict. If the huge Chinese manufacturing base starts cranking out arms for the Russians- who themselves are slow starters and will start producing again in quantity, then we’re in trouble. NATO’s stocks are running low so, if we want to continue this conflict then we have to put our manufacturing base on a war footing and start producing artillery shells and missiles in record quantities. It feels like 1939. Totally agree. Defence, across all NATO countries, needs to be ramped up to 4% of GDP immediately. The 2% will have to be found by stopping a lot of nice to have's. |
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Post by michael on Feb 26, 2023 21:27:14 GMT
Strategic industries such as steel making can’t afford to operate because of energy costs, how are we meant to even manufacture a weapon? The west is no longer supreme, we are in a state of decline that I can’t imagine being arrested.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2023 2:54:41 GMT
A year or so ago I would not have seen Germany or France etc living up to their promise of 2% GDP on defence. The Septics tried for decades only to be ignored. Now there are new members of NATO and most are looking at 4% GDP on defence within five years.
Interesting how a shock can cause a shift in politcy.
How long since we had a full sized carrier in OUR navy, let alone two. Frigates? Something like half a dozen, now we are getting three different classes for about twenty frigates with ten destroyers to replace the type 45's to come too.
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Post by Tim on Feb 27, 2023 8:42:26 GMT
I don't see what China have to gain by supporting the Russians, they've become used to selling the rest of us useless tat at low prices and if that market disappears an impoverished Russian state is hardly going to step up and keep production going.
I read (pre-war) that President Xi's biggest problem to keeping power was if the Chinese middle classes started to become less wealthy they would turn against him. He needs 'The West' to keep buying stuff to maintain that position.
Having said that there does appear to be a school of thought that says China is looking at areas of Russia that are adjacent and, metaphorically, licking its lips due to the future containing a seriously weakened Russia with unhappy residents in the far-flung bits.
The counter to that will be that a) these areas are barely populated so not much of an internal market, b) yes, they might have a lot of resources but as I said earlier, who will they sell them to?
The return for China on supporting Russia just doesn't look lucrative enough to me.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2023 10:26:35 GMT
Those barely populated bits are rich in minerals etc and having small populations, are easier to integrate and provide what the NAZI's called Lebensraum.
Future proofing the PRC with resources is well worth delaying the Russian defeat which will bring about a greater collapse and break up of Russia itself. No need to invade, just wait until the money gets them an in. Take a look around at parts of the world the PRC is investing heavily in.
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Post by Tim on Feb 27, 2023 11:16:27 GMT
Understood.
I've seen it said that the far east of Russia has far more in common with China than with Moscow - which makes perfect sense.
China will just wait for that population to openly express its dissatisfaction/anger with Moscow before taking some action to take it over.
Moscow sees no value in that population as it's outside their geographical area of self interest, Muscovites apparently don't like the regions and are always happy to use them as cannon fodder.
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Post by alf on Feb 27, 2023 12:35:57 GMT
I think Chinese support is on idealogical grounds personally. They want a decent sized counter to "The West", but the risk to the regime there is indeed that they need trade with the west - who utterly dwarf Russia in spending power - to keep their growth going and their citizens off their back. Will they decide, though, that Russia's citizens lack of spine shows that their own (even more truth-deprived) population may not kick off? Thats the worry. But China seems harder to govern than Russia, where as Tim pointed out they seem more interested in attacking people doing better then themselves, than complaining they should be doing better in Russia.
Which is where this whole thing came from - places like Poland and the Baltic States are immeasurably richer and freeer now than when under Soviet rule, to a degree even Russian control over their media struggles to hide. Citizens of places like Ukraine see this, a majority want "in", Russia says that's a Nazi takeover run by the US and aimed at destroying Russia. Which is ludicrous to a comical degree, until you realise nearly half the world seems to see it as true...
The article by the Malaysian ex PM above is a classic case in point, claiming NATO was formed to back-stab Russia after WW2. Stalin's Russia was as bad as Hitler's Germany, it killed many more of its own citizens (often on the same ethnic grounds), and the territories it "liberated" in WW2 were viciously subjugated into the Soviet Union, with greater levels of paranoia and control than displayed by Nazi Germany. The increasingly uneasy alliance between Russia and the allies in WW2 would never have lasted. Remeber that despite recent Russian claims they have "never been the aggressor" they invaded Finland in the leadup to WW2, and agreed with Germany to jointly invade Poland, which was what kicked off WW2 proper. The Malaysian ex PM neatly dodges facts like this, Russia killing scores of millions of innocent people and ruling with absolute terror when the US/France/UK wanted to re establish actual free democracies in places like Poland, Hungary etc.
Western messaging needs to be clear on this - we have nothing against Russia or Russians, but do have something against the current leadership, who have endslessly murdered innocent people deliberately, systematically, and on a scale that means we can never in my view just cut a deal with them and crack on like we did after 2014. Yes this may be the start of WW3, China's role is absolutely pivotal here. The one good thing of this war is showing how utterly useless Russian military kit is, and their forces generally - western weapons like HIMARS/MLRS are quite old now but have proved they were worth taxpayers dollars. We do indeed need to spend spend spend on ammo and kit, which will not go down well in some circles.
What the world needs is a functioning democratic Russia, China may not be so keen.
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Post by johnc on Feb 27, 2023 13:25:33 GMT
But how would Russia respond to some of its land being occupied by foreigners?
I just wish these dictators would learn to be happy with what they have and to try to do the best for their respective populations instead of looking to expand in to other countries.
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Post by Tim on Feb 27, 2023 13:30:32 GMT
But how would Russia respond to some of its land being occupied by foreigners? I just wish these dictators would learn to be happy with what they have and to try to do the best for their respective populations instead of looking to expand in to other countries. China will have seen how good Russian kit is but I don't think they'll actually invade. More likely they'll offer some post-war rebuilding support to a bankrupt Russia and take the land in an exchange deal. |
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Post by Alex on Feb 27, 2023 22:47:16 GMT
It's long been something I've wondered about, how does Moscow rule lands that are so far to the East and if they were invaded how on earth would they be able to mobilise to defend themselves? But then those lands are largely uninhabited for a similar reason that the upper two thirds of Canada and the centre of Australia is uninhabited. You couldn't live there is you wanted to and moving an army across it would be almost as foolish an idea as Putins idea of invading a country of 45m people with just 150k troops.
The China question is a tricky one because they are vastly more wealthy than Russia and equally inhumane when it comes to treating people they don't like (eg. Uyghar muslims) and they are not the West's friend no matter how many trade deals they pretend are to our mutual benefit.
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Post by ChrisM on May 16, 2023 21:16:13 GMT
Somehow earlier today whilst researching what "additive elements" may be found in stainless steel, I was directed to this article www.wired.com/story/notpetya-cyberattack-ukraine-russia-code-crashed-the-world/which makes for quite scary reading. Seems like the Russians have had it in for Ukraine for over 6 years and are determined to wipe out that nation and possibly any country that has dealings with the Ukraine. Having read this, I think that Russia won't be backing down at any cost |
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2023 21:29:48 GMT
The Russians claim there is no such thing as Ukraine and this is a civil war between the Putinista and the neo Nazi's in the region. Sad thing is that there are nations willing to pay lip service to this.
Considering few Russians know the facts, not much chance of the Putinista getting a kicking frp, the proletariat.
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2023 19:02:48 GMT
Russia being invaded by Russians?
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Post by Tim on May 23, 2023 7:42:54 GMT
I read that the Russians have a nuclear weapon store near Belgorod
"One of the central nuclear weapons storage bases of the Russian Federation is located near Grayvoron: Golovchyno, (Belgorod-22) "Object 1150", military unit 25624."
Having looked at it on a map it's amazing how close it is to the Ukrainian border (probably about 5 minutes drive!).
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2023 14:34:04 GMT
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