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Post by PG on Oct 19, 2022 12:40:13 GMT
The following quotations have been attributed to Alexander Tytler (1747-1813) although they have also sometimes been attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville (1805-1859). But in the current fiscal, political and societal position we are in, they feel rather topical.
A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.
The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to complacency; From complacency to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.
I can't help but be fearful that we are at an inflection point. Not just here - UK might be first for a number of reasons - but across western democracies in general. We are at the point where huge budget deficits, unsustainable national debt, unfunded promises, net zero and never-never economics meet the cold hard reality of who pays. An opinion piece last week likened what has been going on since probably about 2000 as "Jenga-economics". Everybody has been convinced that the tower is getting higher, but nobody noticed (or was prepared to face the reality) that it was only being achieved by stealing blocks from lower down the tower. All Jenga towers fall eventually.
So yes Truss has rightly been roasted for her stupid approach. But do we really think that anybody could do it better? I don't. How can any government do what might have to be done and get re-elected or avoid riots? All the clamour is for more spending - NHS, welfare, old people, pensions, defence, infrastructure etc etc. Yet nobody wants to pay more tax (the NI increase announcement was when Labour overtook the Tories in the polls); and tax cuts are way, way off the reservation after this week. And that scares me as as an opinion piece in the Guardian during Covid pointed out along the lines of "if we just taxed 10% one off of all the wealth held by people, that'd solve the entire debt and deficit issue". And they said that in all seriousness. Until they need the next 10% and the next 10%. And elections become seen as a problem to doing what they want..... Back into bondage we go .....
So my open question to you all is - if you had the fortune / misfortune to be elected tomorrow as supreme leader, what would you do in the current climate?
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Post by Roadrunner on Oct 19, 2022 12:53:22 GMT
First and foremost a windfall tax on energy companies to help to balance the books. Next would be steps towards rejoining the EU single market, with a view to negotiating a return to full EU membership.
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Post by Tim on Oct 19, 2022 13:13:27 GMT
There has to be some sort of redistribution of wealth.
Some of that might be in the form of windfall taxes, e.g. on wind/nuclear power companies who are getting a much higher price per unit because their price is determined by the gas price which now appears ludicrous.
I'd leave the oil companies alone - they're already paying something like 65% but they're also at the forefront of rolling out the next generation of power supply, at least in automotive terms.
Doesn't there need to be some sort of restriction placed on the movement of profit as well - I'm thinking of the likes of Apple, Amazon, Vodafone, etc who make huge profits but use financial engineering to shift them to the lowest tax residences.
It upsets me when I read about the alleged massive increase in wealth of the top handful of people (not just in this country). If its true then isn't it just the case that that money/value has come from those lower down the financial ladder?
I'm not proposing a wealth tax but I always remember one of the US presidential elections when the multi-multi-millionaire Mitt Romney had to eventually own up to his overall tax rate and it was significantly lower than someone on a much lower income - this feeds back into the point about financial engineering as well.
There's nothing wrong with earning a shitload of money but it'd be nice if taxation was fair AND everyone paid their fair share, not sure that happens at the moment.
Also go back into the EU - perhaps in the first instance if the Tories manage to move away from the neo lib position they've adopted we can at least start to consider a better relationship with the EU.
Finally I'd probably ask the US to nuke every part of easy access social media (I'm aware of the medium I'm posting this on) as in my opinion its responsible for a lot of dissatisfaction, unrest and shit-stirring as well as wealth creation for IMO utter bullshit entities (what is the point of the Metaverse or Alex Jones and his ilk?).
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Post by chipbutty on Oct 19, 2022 15:40:32 GMT
How much do you think there is to chase ? and what would you propose to do when all of the energy companies turn round to you and say they can’t meet any of the C02 reduction targets because they do not have the funding to invest in the necessary new technologies and infrastructure ? One way or another - “ we “ are going to be paying for this shit.
Before doing anything, the logical individual would need the appropriate level of spend and activity detail in order to ascertain:
• Where all the money spent and where it is collected
• For every major spend channel, how efficiently is the money used and what spend activities are of questionable added value.
• What are the key future deliverables and supporting costs to secure energy and food self-sufficiency, economic stability, maintenance of law and order and provision of healthcare ?
Unfortunately - the effort and cost you would have to expend in order to identify the truth would consume many years and many, many millions, by which time its election time again. This is why I assume most policies are based off fag packet maths and “ tailored “ data - which is why they are usually bollocks.
Either by accident or by design, vast swathes of the populations of the West are dependent on their Governments for some form of financial assistance (i.e - they take out more than they contribute) and you could argue to the end of time as to whether this is representative of a fundamentally broken distribution of wealth, or reflective of an excessive level of entitlement.
It’s near impossible to take away what has now become the expectation and it’s clear that no party has the appetite to balance the books as the actions required to do so are completely unpalatable - therefore the likely outcome is that each country will waddle on until the trouser elastic snaps and everyone’s fat spotty arse is on show.
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Post by ChrisM on Oct 19, 2022 19:28:42 GMT
First and foremost a windfall tax on energy companies to help to balance the books. Next would be steps towards rejoining the EU single market, with a view to negotiating a return to full EU membership. I'd do the first two but stop short of full membership of the EU. I still think that all that was needed was to subsidise energy prices so that Joe Public's bills didn't rise so much, prompting demands for huge wage rises and the upward inflation spiral. We also need to do something about people/organisations like "just stop oil" where a small number of people inconvenience in a significant way the daily lives of tens of thousands of others. The NHS needs sorting out too |
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Post by michael on Oct 19, 2022 21:42:15 GMT
This country is on (un)managed decline. Nobody worth voting for.
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Post by Big Blue on Oct 19, 2022 21:55:10 GMT
Aligning the price if electricity to the price of gas is just an example of the folly of government control, in the same way reduced diesel duty was thus increasing the use and development of dirtier fuelled vehicles at the expense of other types. On a personal level the electricity thing annoys because my supplier is at massive pains to tell me all my electricity is not made from gas at all, whilst still increasing the price in line with the price of gas. The price should be how much it costs to produce plus overheads and profit, like an NEC Option E (engineering cost plus) contract.
Empowerment in delivery is another area I’d address. That final decisions are made on public spending by board members that have sat on three previous boards to ratify a paper TELLING the ultimate board what their answer is is a waste of time and funding across every area of public spending there is. The cost is not just some admin, there’s the uncertainty in the marketplace and wild tender costs that increase risk perception and means prices are far higher to recover the costs of multi-layered governance.
Addressing the big ticket items such as the NHS, pensions and late-life care are the things that are emotionally hard for the public to buy. The NHS needs to review its model against modern medical technology because they’re hopelessly mismatched in cost terms and we shouldn’t be spending vast sums keeping hopeless cases alive using expensive medication and technology just because we can; pension provision will take 50 years of reform to get away from the “use today’s tax to pay the pensions of those that paid less (numerically) to the pensions of yesterday” if reform started today and late-life care would require something akin to boarding-school funds that are started at birth. Like I said, quite a hard sell.
I’m glad I’m just a drone.
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Post by woofwoof on Oct 19, 2022 22:42:04 GMT
Rejoin the EU and democracy is even deader than it is now in the UK. Do that and I'd join the protests and happily see a (peaceful) political revolution. Long time overdue. I'd rather see a revolution and some Mr Blobby from a new party as PM than the current political establishment deciding to take us back into the EU but of course the majority never wanted us to leave. Stick fingers up to the population by re-joining the EU and I can imagine people turning to people and parties we just don't want them to turn to.
I don't think either the Cons or Labour in their current form have any answers and those they have seem to be largely on the same path. I think we need a clean slate. Under the current Con or Labour I just can't see high tax and a long lasting state of recession or near recession with stagnant or failing businesses and rising inflation not generated by consumer luxury spending being a recipe for rescue and I can't see any windfall tax as anything other than a very short term sticking plaster. Sorry if I'm missing something obvious here but going for growth seems a better choice and at least worth trying otherwise we're left with a gradual levelling down under a Con or Labour more of the same govt with not working and possibly never will work policies.
As for redistributing wealth, who to? I've known so many people with zero or next to zero work ethic and why should people who make next to zero or indeed zero effort to support themselves or make any positive contribution to society share anyone else's wealth? Every penny given to some cannabis and larger addled waste of space who's never held a job beyond the trial period is a penny that isn't available for people in genuine need. Ok I haven't worked for 12 years now but I don't suppose it's changed and if it has doubtless you guys will tell me. I saw just about every new starter back then and they were often/majority the same, just wasters only there because they'd been told their benefits would be affected if they didn't take the job. Many had worked for the same local companies and had been finished within the trial period and many were finished within the trial period again. You could see as you talked to them that they just didn't give a flying. Some didn't even last the first day or week and those I didn't see were often gone when I got back from a day or week off. It was difficult to get good staff and "we" had to hire someone. I don't know how this lack of motivation to support themselves can be fixed as there seems to be zero political will to deal with people who are just not interested in making any effort towards supporting themselves and their lifestyles and families. Might as well just bite the bullet and give them UBI, the money printing presses can just work overtime and we'll vote out the failing govt and expect the next govt to sort out the inflation and related mess. Rinse and repeat.
I just remain to be persuaded that someone who has no intention other than to live off the state and spend their days off their face on booze and cannabis playing computer games deserves any redistributed wealth but I don't see any way to change minds. It'd take generations and a govt willing to grapple with the issue of those who have chaotic unsupported by effort lifestyles, often with a crime element.
Sorry for the near rant.
I remember saying words to the effect on the forum as it was back then that we were probably going to see a reduction in living standards in the west but what we're seeing now seems to be totally self inflicted.
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Post by Big Blue on Oct 20, 2022 8:04:44 GMT
So what if a party stands for a GE and tucked away in it’s manifesto is a promise to rejoin the EU and they win the GE?
Will of the people and all that.
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Post by michael on Oct 20, 2022 8:35:25 GMT
So what if a party stands for a GE and tucked away in it’s manifesto is a promise to rejoin the EU and they win the GE? Will of the people and all that. I don’t think that’s something that’s going to go unnoticed. |
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Post by Big Blue on Oct 20, 2022 8:55:22 GMT
Depends how it’s worded. “A commitment to align our trading, residential and visa policies with our closest trading partners.” can mean Americas, China, India or Europe in any manner deemed most beneficial to both parties to any agreement.
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Post by michael on Oct 20, 2022 9:00:58 GMT
It’s almost certainly going to be a contested issue at the next election and any movement towards rejoining is going to require explicit public support through a referendum.
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Post by Big Blue on Oct 20, 2022 9:15:12 GMT
Yeah I agree which then raises the question of the wording of any referendum questions and what campaigning looks like. Should be pretty comical.
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Post by michael on Oct 20, 2022 9:25:28 GMT
I don’t think it’s on the horizon. The next referendum will be Scotland. The wording on that should be given greater scrutiny.
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Post by johnc on Oct 20, 2022 9:52:09 GMT
Where do I start? First and foremost there is not enough tax coming in to "the system" to pay for everything that needs paid for. However the public services (and as Big Blue says, publicly funded projects) are grossly bureaucratic and inefficient.
I would start by raising Income tax by at least 2%, I would massively simplify tax legislation to reduce avoidance and I would only give tax relief for named specific items like pension contributions. Trusts etc would get no tax breaks other than moving the ownership in to the beneficiary's name.
I would rejoin the European economic union only so that free trade could restart.
I would significantly extend the taper for the loss of Child Benefit and also personal allowances, perhaps to £50K and £75K instead of the current £10K and £25,140 respectively.
I would extend the taper for the loss of benefits when someone finds employment. At the moment they lose 50p in benefits for every £1 they earn. By the time you take tax, pension and NI off, they keep about 25% of what they earn if they are lucky - that is nowhere near good enough to encourage someone to take up a job. To make getting back to work affordable, they can't lose more than 10% - 15% of benefits for every £1 earned otherwise they won't even keep half after tax and NI. Maybe there should be a lower starting rate of income tax for the first £10K, say 10%.
A wealth tax is a huge NO from me because of the disincentive that would create for people to build for the future and for their families. As Tim said, it will just become another method of taxation which actually has no relationship to the individual's income or their ability to pay. e.g. old widow living in a £1m house and managing to get by with £25K pension (I have a couple of those as clients and they are not cash rich)
I hear from my doctor friends in the NHS that they get massively frustrated at the political interference in hospitals and the inept management. For example the new Queen Elizabeth hospital in Glasgow was built with several operating theatres kitted out with the latest Da Vinci key-hole surgery machines because the Politicians wanted to be able to boast that the new hospital had the very latest technology. The doctors say they don't have enough patients who require the use of all these machines and they also don't have enough suitably trained doctors to use them, so those theatres are largely unused. The management response to looking for greater efficiency from admin staff was not to recruit anyone when someone left and to issue a directive that they are not allowed to speak to each other except for specific work related matters: the result is that people felt very hurt and many have left. The whole management ethos is broken and ineffective. However that doesn't explain why I had to sit with my wife in A&E for well over 4 hours with no-one around but at the same time all we could hear for that 4 hours were staff continually chatting and laughing. The NHS is going to need some tough love.
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Post by michael on Oct 20, 2022 10:01:50 GMT
The NHS is untouchable so forget about any change.
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Post by johnc on Oct 20, 2022 10:05:42 GMT
The NHS is untouchable so forget about any change. Publicly perhaps but it has to be changed somehow and it might just get better |
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Post by michael on Oct 20, 2022 10:26:32 GMT
It would benefit enormously from fundamental reform but it’s a political football that is venerated by the gullible public. As long as our political system is broken so the NHS will be.
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Post by Tim on Oct 20, 2022 12:39:51 GMT
Is the political system broken though? Everything appeared to work fairly well in the old days, it's just recently things have gone wrong - seemingly at a time where the PM individually has/ uses too much power and we've had inept PMs. As for the NHS, Mrs Tim worked there for a while and, at least in NHS Tayside, one of the things implemented was to stop recruiting for jobs in odd numbered salary bands. Completely arbitrary and I'm sure it worked out brilliantly  On the subject of elderly care my mum has been in hospital/care since 14/6. She went into hospital with a severe chest infection, was ready to leave within a week but because of the structure of her home care the cover had been removed after 72 hours. She spent 2 weeks in the main hospital, another 2 weeks in a cottage hospital and since then has been in a private care home but funded by the local council since they have insufficient staff to re-instate her care package at home. There are a few other residents in exactly the same boat. It seems like madness. Meanwhile the profits earned from her care are undoubtedly being moved offshore to a low taxation haven. At least 50% of the staff in the home are agency and of them I'd guess 75% are from overseas but NOT European so that's worked out brilliantly hasn't it. |
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Post by johnc on Oct 20, 2022 12:43:57 GMT
Liz has fallen on her sword!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2022 12:54:32 GMT
The king is dead, long live the king. Lower case 'k'.
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Post by woofwoof on Oct 20, 2022 13:18:08 GMT
So what if a party stands for a GE and tucked away in it’s manifesto is a promise to rejoin the EU and they win the GE? Will of the people and all that. People don't read the small print. I think what will probably happen is people will vote Labour because the Cons are a mess and if Labour then screw up in multiple ways in frustration and anger the people will vote Con. Rinse and repeat. Isn't that how it is for many voters? I'm not in favour of people not voting because it makes no odds, I'm in favour of people voting for someone else and I hope there's an opportunity to do that in the future. Anyway. I don't suppose any of this Labour v Con really matters. I'm beginning to believe the conspiracy theorists are right and that anyone appointed (rather than elected) in the UK is just a puppet controlled by the likes of Klaus Schwab the only differences being how keen they are on pronouns and what and how much porn they stuff into school libraries. If there is a move to rejoin the EC I'll hope for massive civil unrest. |
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Oct 20, 2022 13:37:37 GMT
Liz has fallen on her sword! I'm getting my best suit out of the pawn shop, it's only a matter of time before it's my turn. |
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Post by woofwoof on Oct 20, 2022 13:51:28 GMT
Liz has fallen on her sword! I'm getting my best suit out of the pawn shop, it's only a matter of time before it's my turn. Do you do stand up or a song and dance routine? |
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Post by Boxer6 on Oct 20, 2022 16:47:32 GMT
Is the political system broken though? Everything appeared to work fairly well in the old days, it's just recently things have gone wrong - seemingly at a time where the PM individually has/ uses too much power and we've had inept PMs. As for the NHS, Mrs Tim worked there for a while and, at least in NHS Tayside, one of the things implemented was to stop recruiting for jobs in odd numbered salary bands. Completely arbitrary and I'm sure it worked out brilliantly On the subject of elderly care my mum has been in hospital/care since 14/6. She went into hospital with a severe chest infection, was ready to leave within a week but because of the structure of her home care the cover had been removed after 72 hours. She spent 2 weeks in the main hospital, another 2 weeks in a cottage hospital and since then has been in a private care home but funded by the local council since they have insufficient staff to re-instate her care package at home. There are a few other residents in exactly the same boat. It seems like madness. Meanwhile the profits earned from her care are undoubtedly being moved offshore to a low taxation haven. At least 50% of the staff in the home are agency and of them I'd guess 75% are from overseas but NOT European so that's worked out brilliantly hasn't it. In Glasgow, we are allowed to advertise for odd-numbered salary bands, but certainly in community mental health, you can't attract a band 5 CPN for love OR money! There are dozens of band 5 community posts out there, but virtually no-one wants to apply for them; part of that is because many nurses of that experience are relatively young, with young families, and taking a hit of £3-400 a month to come out in to the community is not viable. We have a new band 5 starting next week, but that seems solely because it suits her family dynamic at present AND she's just qualified - so, no previous higher wage. As for seeming like madness - it seems like it, because it is! But whatever we might think of Social Work departments, they too are struggling to recruit and retain staff, so Home Care staffing is a much sought after resource and not easily supplied. No idea what the answer is though I'm afraid. |
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Post by Big Blue on Oct 20, 2022 21:30:30 GMT
Amusingly in discussing politicians with W2.1 who described the Mayor as “that Indian man”; Kier Starmer as “the man horny to get the role of PM”; Liz Truss as “that blonde one”.
When I remarked that her descriptions of British politicians was lurid to say the least she replied “no point in me learning their names; they’re not there long enough.”
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Post by Tim on Oct 21, 2022 7:48:14 GMT
Is the political system broken though? Everything appeared to work fairly well in the old days, it's just recently things have gone wrong - seemingly at a time where the PM individually has/ uses too much power and we've had inept PMs. As for the NHS, Mrs Tim worked there for a while and, at least in NHS Tayside, one of the things implemented was to stop recruiting for jobs in odd numbered salary bands. Completely arbitrary and I'm sure it worked out brilliantly On the subject of elderly care my mum has been in hospital/care since 14/6. She went into hospital with a severe chest infection, was ready to leave within a week but because of the structure of her home care the cover had been removed after 72 hours. She spent 2 weeks in the main hospital, another 2 weeks in a cottage hospital and since then has been in a private care home but funded by the local council since they have insufficient staff to re-instate her care package at home. There are a few other residents in exactly the same boat. It seems like madness. Meanwhile the profits earned from her care are undoubtedly being moved offshore to a low taxation haven. At least 50% of the staff in the home are agency and of them I'd guess 75% are from overseas but NOT European so that's worked out brilliantly hasn't it. In Glasgow, we are allowed to advertise for odd-numbered salary bands, but certainly in community mental health, you can't attract a band 5 CPN for love OR money! There are dozens of band 5 community posts out there, but virtually no-one wants to apply for them; part of that is because many nurses of that experience are relatively young, with young families, and taking a hit of £3-400 a month to come out in to the community is not viable. We have a new band 5 starting next week, but that seems solely because it suits her family dynamic at present AND she's just qualified - so, no previous higher wage. As for seeming like madness - it seems like it, because it is! But whatever we might think of Social Work departments, they too are struggling to recruit and retain staff, so Home Care staffing is a much sought after resource and not easily supplied. No idea what the answer is though I'm afraid. I suspect that in the first instance bringing elderly care under the NHS might help a bit. I've kept in touch with one of the care team who had been visiting my mum and her advice was that if my mum ends up back in hospital for anything she should turn down the offer of a temporary move to a care home - staying in hospital - bed blocking - would speed up her return home. Everyone at the council I've spoken to has blamed shortage of staff. I know that when they did a recruitment drive a year/18 months ago they attracted quite a few people from local care homes! Elsewhere I've seen the comment that filling low paid jobs - such as care home staff - shouldn't be a problem post-Brexit because we can still recruit from the rest of the world. That makes me laugh because, without wanting to tar everyone with the same brush, I know a number of pro-leave people whose primary reason had been the influx of Europeans. Are these people going to be happy with a massive influx of Africans? I only ask because the home my mum is currently in is the same one my dad was for 3 years and while he was there only 1 face was brown whereas now it's greater than 50% (and they're ALL agency staff). |
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Post by johnc on Oct 21, 2022 9:15:35 GMT
Funding, egos and political dogma are the main issues according to nursing home owners I deal with.
The Council run nursing homes operate at a cost of over £1,000/week per resident but when the Council is funding someone in a private nursing home they are only prepared to pay c£800/week. The Council's won't give up their homes and as my client told them, "if you pay me £1,000/week i'll give them a swimming pool"
The low levels of profit for private operators who take council residents (not the ones who only take private residents at £1,500 a week) means that they can't afford to pay much over minimum wage and a lot of the Europeans who were prepared to do those jobs before have now left the UK after Brexit. The issue Tim has alluded to is also a real issue when you are dealing with a generation who view the world differently in relation to the colour of people's skin. Throw in a bit of dementia which effectively removes a lot of the filters someone might have in what they say and you have a fairly hostile environment sometimes. Minimum wage then makes this environment unattractive and you have significant staffing issues.
I am afraid the wages need to increase and costs and tax will similarly go up. We are all in for a tough few years.
EDIT. I should add that Councils need to fund the people they put in nursing homes much better or the homes will go out of business and just add to the social care nightmare. One home I deal with has 42 beds and their breakeven is just over 37 beds. If they get one case of Covid, all admissions are stopped for at least a month and often the resident numbers will fall to the low 30's. There is only so long a business can cope with this and with banks now seeing the care sector as a danger area for lending it means there is little or no flexibility in borrowing to overcome these hurdles and in fact increased pressure to reduce bank debt. When higher interest rates kick in (a lot of homes have 5 or 10 year fixed deals but most are well through their term) you can expect to see a lot of them closing the doors.
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Post by Boxer6 on Oct 21, 2022 9:21:40 GMT
We're currently advertising (in hope rather than expectation I fear) for a Band 3 HCA, for which one of the essential criteria is a valid, clean(ish) driving licence. 24 applicants so far, which sounds brilliant; only 5 are UK-based and with a valid licence. ALL the rest are from Africa, with no previous experience (essential), no venepuncture training (essential) and no DL. Of the other 5, only 3 so far are suitable candidates for interview. It'll be interesting to see how our Band 5 applications go - I might be on the panel for that one .. .. ..  |
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Post by Roadrunner on Oct 21, 2022 9:47:54 GMT
Where I work we run a few care homes and recruitment is our biggest single issue by a long way. Relying upon agency staff just pushes the cost up even further.
This year, as an organisation, we took the decision to award those in more senior positions little or no pay rise, so that those in the lower pay bands could have a rise which would make a significant difference to them. This has now helped with recruitment and retention, thereby reducing our agency costs and helping us to balance the books.
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