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Post by garry on Apr 10, 2020 6:36:27 GMT
I was talking to a couple of work mates last night based over in the States. I think Coronavirus could cripple North America. it’s a country that’s structured around the individual, not the collective. An indiscriminate disease is going to test that model to breaking point. You’ve essentially got a country where access to healthcare is based on wealth, job security is almost non-existent and government safety nets are minimal. Add in to that the fact that a significant proportion of the population are pretty unhealthy and they have a president not renowned for his empathy.
They’re going to end up with people not wanting to be tested for fear of the impact on their health insurance, people with no insurance falling through the net, people working with symptoms for fear of losing their job, and a leader who is so short-term and right-wing he won’t have the vision or the desire to deal with this.
Anyone who has spent time in the States over recent years will know that the American dream has been broken in some cities and regions for a while now. Coronavirus has the capacity to make Detroit look like the model city.
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Post by ChrisM on Apr 10, 2020 6:58:46 GMT
I don't think America (USA) is the only country at risk of being broken by this outbreak. Look at many countries in Africa for starters - vast percentage of the population living in real poverty with little, or no, health care facilities.
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Post by johnc on Apr 10, 2020 7:55:36 GMT
I think the virus has the capacity to cause some mayhem and long term changes but I don't think it will break the country. If we look at the likes of the Plague or Spanish Flu, they were far more deadly (possibly because of when they arose) and they didn't break society: their impact was felt for a long time and sectors of society were decimated. Back then, those at the bottom just had to suck it up whereas now society in general is more inclusive and compassionate so my take would be that something like Obama Care may get re-introduced especially if The Donald shows himself as someone who doesn't care or provide for the people who voted for him.
From a UK perspective, there is no doubt that the US system needs changing to be more inclusive but the establishment is too strong to be broken completely over this - it may get bent though.
My best friend from my teens/early twenties, went to the US and is still there but in the early days he was rushed to a hospital with appendicitis and was then left on a trolley for nearly a whole day, in a potentially life threatening state while the hospital worked out if he had medical cover through his job - otherwise they wouldn't touch him. I just don't think that is acceptable in the modern world. However that is the reason that doctors in the US earn an easy $500K a year whereas in the UK they earn about £100K - £130K if they are NHS only and up to about £200K if they do a decent amount of private work too. Those who do private only can earn close to their US counterparts.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2020 9:35:20 GMT
I doubt any country will be properly broken, bent definitely. The blanks are all going out to sort it for as many as possible which I did not expect to see but if we keep our nerve it will eventually blow over.
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Post by Alex on Apr 10, 2020 9:46:15 GMT
What Donald does in the coming months will be significant for no other reason than the fact the presidential elections are later this year. If swathes of the population succumb to the virus by virtue of lack of healthcare stemming from loss of their job with no government support, you'd have to question whether he'd get reelected, especially as he's already been slow to react to the virus and has not appeared to take it seriously.
On the other hand if he puts in place measures to ensure everyone who needs a test gets one and hospitals have to treat those with the virus irregardless of whether they have insurance, he could go to the polls as an American hero.
Ultimately its not the Western countries we need to worry about it's the third world countries where there is no government support for wages and people wont be able to stay indoors and stop working because they'll starve.
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Post by chipbutty on Apr 10, 2020 9:48:14 GMT
In relation to healthcare provision, I think there will be a general shift to appreciating the value of quality healthcare that is freely available and has sufficient capacity. Not driven by touchy feely reasons (or explained as such by the Trumps of the world), but mainly driven from an economic reality that having significant swathes of workers that are untreated or left to die buggers the economy.
I also think there will be (or needs to be) a corresponding response from the population that they need to start looking after themselves better and it’s their responsibility as members of a productive and fair society to do so.
Anyone who has given themselves diabetes through poor diet and minimal activity needs to have a damn good word with themselves. Anyone whose lung function and capacity is so poor because they don’t exercise (through choice, not disability) needs to have a damn good word with themselves. Anyone who goes out and gets so pissed they end up in A&E needs a damn good slap and multiple sections of society just need to get a grip in general (the level of wettishness I’ve been subjected to on facebook and other social outlets is sickening).
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2020 10:20:44 GMT
Generally, the NHS will need to have a long hard look at the services it provides and how essential they are. The growth of plastic surgery etc on the national elf has to be cleaned out and scamming the system to stop completely. Shake up time.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Apr 10, 2020 11:40:05 GMT
I understand that unemployment benefit in the US has just been upped by $600 to $1200 per week. Not too shabby.
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Post by michael on Apr 10, 2020 12:43:41 GMT
I think it will damage the US but I wouldn’t put it past Trump to create some sort of healthcare package for no other reason than to get a second term. I don’t think the EU will come out of this well either.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2020 13:26:20 GMT
Apparently Germany was in recession already and France not far behind. This will truly make a mess of the whole shooting match. Not gloating btw, not a state I want for anyone. Unless they get a proper grip on waste and the other bits perhaps.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Apr 10, 2020 15:24:15 GMT
Apparently Germany was in recession already and France not far behind. This will truly make a mess of the whole shooting match. Not gloating btw, not a state I want for anyone. Unless they get a proper grip on waste and the other bits perhaps. I don’t think the UK is surviving economically well enough to consider itself in a better position than France or Germany. On another note it does not surprise me that the much vaunted EU ventilator purchasing programme has yet to place any orders and they are still struggling with the make up of the various committees and sub committees.Ventilators are now not expected until later in the year.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2020 17:53:17 GMT
No, I agree but my point was these nations were in the pan already. The talk about the european wide bail out suggests there is some hope for them but as has been said by others, they need to get their finger out and do it now rather than stick it in some bloody committee somewhere, as they usually do, as WE usually do.
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Post by Sav on Apr 11, 2020 9:40:20 GMT
Imo the Coronavirus will break the EU. Eurozone growth was already worryingly low, next to non-existent before the virus. You had weak member state economies, with even the bigger countries like France and Germany facing stagnation. Now, the Coronavirus is going to require huge bailouts for Italy, Spain and others. The ECB will run out of solutions, and it will lead to a two-tier EU. The EU has little cohesion, weak leadership and uncompetitive economies. I don't say that with any glee either, because Europe's meltdown will be a massive problem for British business, just when it needs to be getting up and running again.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 10:34:53 GMT
Despite wanting out of the eu, we have to pull together for the common good in this, we will all be better off this way. Not changing my mind about leaving but we can have a better relationship with an altered eu majoring on trade rather than the creation of a greater europe. They could even clean up the waste etc which would be a great step to take.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Apr 11, 2020 11:26:52 GMT
The EU will survive and thrive if it goes back to being a “Common Market”, facilitating tariff free trade across borders and ditches the political and fiscal union ideology.
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Post by Big Blue on Apr 11, 2020 11:31:27 GMT
Imo the Coronavirus will break the EU. Eurozone growth was already worryingly low, next to non-existent before the virus. You had weak member state economies, with even the bigger countries like France and Germany facing stagnation. Now, the Coronavirus is going to require huge bailouts for Italy, Spain and others. The ECB will run out of solutions, and it will lead to a two-tier EU. The EU has little cohesion, weak leadership and uncompetitive economies. I don't say that with any glee either, because Europe's meltdown will be a massive problem for British business, just when it needs to be getting up and running again. Surely the alternative is a more dictatorial EU stance so that Italy, Greece etc. can't continue wanting the German / Dutch / Belgian benefit lifestyle without some enforced changes that go beyond the 2008-9 actions. That said they'd need to tell France the same and just telling them they can't retire at 60 and have 14 weeks holiday a year has caused massive unrest..... The best solution for the EU would probably be to bin France and allow the likes of Italy and Spain to make a self-led recovery without having to pay for the French lifestyle.
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Post by Roadsterstu on Apr 11, 2020 11:49:44 GMT
I think it will damage the US but I wouldn’t put it past Trump to create some sort of healthcare package for no other reason than to get a second term. I don’t think the EU will come out of this well either. I wouldn't put anything past Trump doing whatever he can to get a 2nd term, however good or bad that may be.
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Post by PG on Apr 11, 2020 12:53:59 GMT
In the past the US has always been really quick into job losses - as workers have no real security of tenure - but then bounces back quickly too. Trump will be hoping that happens this time too as far as jobs go. The Federal government has also upped unemployment pay, so people should not as worse off. The issue seems to be that the number of claimants has overwhelmed the state offices that administer the unemployment schemes. The urban poor who voted Democrat last time will not change their mind. It will be how Trump treats his base that matters.
And there, I would not bet against Trump yet. After all, that this is "Chinese Flu" plays straight into his America First (and anti-Chinese) narrative - in terms of trade, supply chains, trust, jobs, the pro-China / anti-US WHO and UN etc. You can bet that there will be even more pressure on US companies to bring manufacturing back to the US.
The recession in the Eurozone is going to again put pressure on all the fault lines in the Euro system. It survived one recession, whether the Euro can survive a second deeper recession remains to be seen.
Whilst the UK we are not that strong, we are in better shape than Italy or Spain or France as we can print our own money - and if that generates a bit more inflation then that's good for a government taking on more debt. Might not be as good for the populace, but governments like inflation as it erodes the real value of government debt.
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Post by michael on Apr 11, 2020 14:25:37 GMT
I think an economic stimulus package geared towards repatriation of overseas jobs utilising Freeport’s could work very well for the uk.
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Post by Sav on Apr 11, 2020 16:43:24 GMT
Imo the Coronavirus will break the EU. Eurozone growth was already worryingly low, next to non-existent before the virus. You had weak member state economies, with even the bigger countries like France and Germany facing stagnation. Now, the Coronavirus is going to require huge bailouts for Italy, Spain and others. The ECB will run out of solutions, and it will lead to a two-tier EU. The EU has little cohesion, weak leadership and uncompetitive economies. I don't say that with any glee either, because Europe's meltdown will be a massive problem for British business, just when it needs to be getting up and running again. Surely the alternative is a more dictatorial EU stance so that Italy, Greece etc. can't continue wanting the German / Dutch / Belgian benefit lifestyle without some enforced changes that go beyond the 2008-9 actions. That said they'd need to tell France the same and just telling them they can't retire at 60 and have 14 weeks holiday a year has caused massive unrest..... The best solution for the EU would probably be to bin France and allow the likes of Italy and Spain to make a self-led recovery without having to pay for the French lifestyle. That would be preferable. I think that is the fundamental problem with a club of very different economies, with different pressures and different demographics. In my view, the Eurozone still hasn't recovered from the 2008 recession. It has survived, but relatively high unemployment and inflexible economies remain. As you say, the French won't give up their generous holiday and packages, but that problem is mirrored across the Eurozone. The French are reluctant to give huge bailouts to Italy, but France has its own issues. The other problem for the EU are people like Victor Orban in Hungary, who continually flout EU regulations with no repercussions. That nationalistic populism has been growing for some years in other EU member states too, potentially leaving everything the EU stood for in tatters. I agree with Bob that the EU could thrive if it became a core trading bloc, rather than a political project with the single currency. But that won't happen. The EU's biggest problem is that it risks being left behind on technology and automation. It already has. I'm not an ardent leaver, I would have preferred to stay in a more competitive, reformed EU. But the EU's leadership is so blinded by their core principals, they can't take the action needed to make Europe more competitive and flexible.
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Post by ChrisM on Apr 11, 2020 21:45:20 GMT
^ I'm not an economist but we do still seem to be in the recession that started with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Not sure what is needed to totally get out from it, but this virus pandemic (I keep thinking of it as "pandemonium") certainly isn't going to help matters. Maybe if we start to manufacture more "at home", it will help.... but ultimately, who knows what's best?
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Post by Tim on Apr 14, 2020 9:26:51 GMT
I'm a tad confused by the virus effects in the US. Not the economic impact but the spread. Our news have switched across to reporting the US daily death total as its a bigger number than Italy, Spain, etc but they're not making the point about population size. For all the problems the US have with healthcare they're currently losing around 2,000 people a day compared with the UK on around 750. But the population of the US is 5 times the size of ours so actually they're not doing as badly.
So is this because they're behind the curve of the spread and it'll get significantly worse or are they helped by geography - i.e. there are a lot of fairly isolated towns that have avoided it?
My concern is that Trump's desperation to open their borders to trade again could see them spreading the disease having failed to properly contain it.
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Post by PetrolEd on Apr 21, 2020 9:50:01 GMT
Anyone else see the demonstrations in the US yesterday? Un-bloody-believable.
Hospital workers and red necks having standoffs on the street and Trump seems to be encouraging this behavior. Utter madness and of course as soon as this behavior becomes acceptable all those self isolating will just think whats the point as carry on as normal.
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Post by garry on Apr 21, 2020 13:08:34 GMT
Anyone else see the demonstrations in the US yesterday? Un-bloody-believable. Hospital workers and red necks having standoffs on the street and Trump seems to be encouraging this behavior. Utter madness and of course as soon as this behavior becomes acceptable all those self isolating will just think whats the point as carry on as normal. I think it’s as expected. You’ve got a country that puts personal liberty before country, that doesn’t offer much support to the individual financially and that’s taken away the ability to earn money. They’ll start shooting each other soon enough
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Post by racingteatray on Apr 21, 2020 13:12:38 GMT
Anyone else see the demonstrations in the US yesterday? Un-bloody-believable. Hospital workers and red necks having standoffs on the street and Trump seems to be encouraging this behavior. Utter madness and of course as soon as this behavior becomes acceptable all those self isolating will just think whats the point as carry on as normal. It's been argued by some that, by arguing for insurrection against the Republic, as Trump appear to be doing, that he is committing treason. He's also, to no-one's surprise, being hypocritical, because the orders they are protesting against are his orders!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2020 13:35:37 GMT
I hope no one is expecting logic from the mopster, not seen it yet and hardly likely to, apart from encouraging his core supporters anyway.
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Post by scouse on Apr 23, 2020 23:22:17 GMT
This is the k8nd of reporting that will deliver Trump’s second term:
Neglects to mention that’s the price for 55 gallon drum...
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Post by Big Blue on Jun 2, 2020 16:28:00 GMT
Is America broken yet?
I would assert that the phrase "more broken" would be more apt. That said I have rose tinted spectacles of my teenaged summers in the USA - we were very "middle class" and had all the kind of things, lifestyle you see on American TV shows but my first arrival was a trip through downtown Newark, courtesy of my step-dad. Houses with no windows in, fires burning in the middle of living rooms, kids playing in the fire hydrant water, the odd pimp-mobile (brand new flash car) and lots of old wrecks parked about.
"This is what happens to you in America when you don't make it" he told me. That was 1981 so it's always been the land of opportunity, which of course means it has to also be the land of desolate failure as not everyone gets opportunities or can be a success.
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Post by Alex on Jun 2, 2020 17:17:09 GMT
In America you are either a winner or a loser and if you are a loser don't expect anyone to look after you or provide you with healthcare if you get ill. Trouble is America is soon to have over 4 million unemployed who will quickly find they cannot feed themselves and have no cushy UK style benefits system to fall back on especially if they're not US born.
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Post by PetrolEd on Jun 3, 2020 8:43:40 GMT
Is America broken yet? I would assert that the phrase "more broken" would be more apt. That said I have rose tinted spectacles of my teenaged summers in the USA - we were very "middle class" and had all the kind of things, lifestyle you see on American TV shows but my first arrival was a trip through downtown Newark, courtesy of my step-dad. Houses with no windows in, fires burning in the middle of living rooms, kids playing in the fire hydrant water, the odd pimp-mobile (brand new flash car) and lots of old wrecks parked about. "This is what happens to you in America when you don't make it" he told me. That was 1981 so it's always been the land of opportunity, which of course means it has to also be the land of desolate failure as not everyone gets opportunities or can be a success. I have the same pair of pink specs. We had a place in Savannah in Georgia growing up and it was bloody lovely. It was on one of these private communities with the yacht club, country clubs, Golf courses, tennis courts, bars etc all on site. The place was immaculate, you would never see a piece of litter, there was Zero crime, helped by the armed security on every entry into the place. And amazingly the most charming people and politest you would ever care to meet. Now I'm under no illusion that this was because i was white, and British that we were so well looked after. There were no ethnic minorities to be see apart from the hispanic guys doing the gardens of most homes. I remember going to downtown Savannah, which by the way is equally beautiful but the poor people were kept very much out of sight and out of mind and if you engaged with any of the locals they couldn't wait to tell you who and where to avoid and were all paranoid that the black communities were waiting to ruin their utopia. Now I've never been to South Africa but it had that whiff of Apartheid about the place. This was in the late 90's so hope that 20 years has brought a lot of change but very much doubt it. Its the lack of mixing within different social/economic/race groups that is the problem in a lot of the states. Luckily as we all live on top of each other in the UK we have no choice but to deal with people from all walks of life which hopefully breaks down these barriers.
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