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Post by garry on Feb 22, 2021 15:45:37 GMT
Thought it would be worth a thread as Boris starts to share his unlocking plan.
First snippet I heard - secondary school kids are going to have to wear masks all day when they go back to school. Both in the corridors and in lessons. That will be fun! I personally think kids have given up enough for this weird experiment and we should let them go back to being kids. I could see some justification in pushing teachers to the front of the vaccine queue if they want it. I cant see why kids should be forced to endure much more of this for a virus that poses no threat to them.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2021 16:41:07 GMT
It’s kids passing it on to Adults which is the issue isn’t it, not kids themselves?
At least we have some definitive staging dates now, subject to the 4 criteria being met. Beers in your garden 29th, beers in pub garden 12th, beers in pub 21st 😂
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Post by chipbutty on Feb 22, 2021 16:47:33 GMT
Bullet in the head on 22nd.......
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Post by garry on Feb 22, 2021 18:59:16 GMT
It’s kids passing it on to Adults which is the issue isn’t it, not kids themselves? Yep. All who’ve been offered a vaccine if they’re vulnerable.
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Post by Big Blue on Feb 22, 2021 19:18:18 GMT
Can have a beer handed to you by someone that didn't necessarily wash their hands after taking a piss in a garden that's cleaned by the rain before you can go to a gym where every piece of equipment is cleaned every time an individual uses it then deep cleaned between defined 90 minute sessions? Yeah: sounds right.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2021 19:45:42 GMT
If I was in priority group 6 and at the upper age range i’d still be feeling pretty nervous for a few weeks more. I think I read 60% of those in hospital are under 70 which I presume partly reflects this.
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Post by ChrisM on Feb 22, 2021 20:01:14 GMT
Almost 2 months until we can have a "proper" haircut (or go to the zoo), 3 months until we can travel abroad assuming that other countries will allow us in. Still pretty depressing if you ask me.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Feb 22, 2021 21:29:19 GMT
I’ve missed the zoo too. Used to go every week.
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Post by michael on Feb 22, 2021 21:41:03 GMT
First snippet I heard - secondary school kids are going to have to wear masks all day when they go back to school. Both in the corridors and in lessons. . Time to buy stocks in Clearasil as the spotty little bastards are going to need it.
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Post by Stuntman on Feb 22, 2021 21:41:34 GMT
^^ I'm not surprised Bob, the amount of monkey business you get up to.
Back on topic - honestly, I think the Government has got the easing about right. Personally I would love things to be opened up sooner, but I don't think that enough of the population would agree with it. Given that pretty much nobody will be overjoyed with the situation I think they did a pretty decent job today.
The success of the vaccination programme is tremendous and the initial data about its real-world effectiveness is very encouraging. We just have to resign ourselves to sucking up the restrictions for a few more months and look forward to that first pint down the pub, that first time properly catching up with good friends, and that next Forum mini-meet.
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Post by michael on Feb 22, 2021 21:44:59 GMT
^^ I'm not surprised Bob, the amount of monkey business you get up to. Back on topic - honestly, I think the Government has got the easing about right. Personally I would love things to be opened up sooner, but I don't think that enough of the population would agree with it. Given that pretty much nobody will be overjoyed with the situation I think they did a pretty decent job today. The success of the vaccination programme is tremendous and the initial data about its real-world effectiveness is very encouraging. We just have to resign ourselves to sucking up the restrictions for a few more months and look forward to that first pint down the pub, that first time properly catching up with good friends, and that next Forum mini-meet. Events ought to be open from June so time to get something booked. I think it's worth carefully unwinding so that it's the last of the lockdowns.
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Post by Alex on Feb 22, 2021 21:46:43 GMT
A very measured approach that I'm sure will leave many disappointed at its slowness as it does worried at its rapidity. I think it's been judged about as right as it can be given we still have 10k+ cases a day and other countries are locking down if they get a cluster of 3. It does look like the government have accepted defeat in any bid to eradicate the virus and are asking us to now accept that it will circulate in the same manner as the common cold and that we will lose maybe 20,000 people a year to it regardless of vaccination and will need to go back to mask wearing in the winter like they do in most far eastern countries.
Personally I'm glad that our kids will go back but I know my wife, who is a secondary school teacher is worried she'll be at risk again. But if we continue to follow the rules then this is the only way to do things. We cant stay in this so-called lockdown forever.
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Post by racingteatray on Feb 22, 2021 22:28:59 GMT
Can have a beer handed to you by someone that didn't necessarily wash their hands after taking a piss in a garden that's cleaned by the rain before you can go to a gym where every piece of equipment is cleaned every time an individual uses it then deep cleaned between defined 90 minute sessions? Yeah: sounds right. I thought this too. I haven't had a beer in ages - there's none in the house. It's not that a cold beer on a hot day isn't a fine thing, or with a pizza or a curry. But in winter at home, I really can't say as I miss it enormously. Certainly that pubs are reopening is absolutely nowhere near top of my wish list.
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Post by garry on Feb 23, 2021 7:11:13 GMT
Almost 2 months until we can have a "proper" haircut (or go to the zoo), 3 months until we can travel abroad assuming that other countries will allow us in. Still pretty depressing if you ask me. I’m not sure I’ll return to the hairdressers.My partner has become a very competent stylist over the last year, Her first attempts had a touch of the abandoned refugee to them, but now it’s great.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Feb 23, 2021 8:43:21 GMT
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Post by Tim on Feb 23, 2021 8:43:28 GMT
Can have a beer handed to you by someone that didn't necessarily wash their hands after taking a piss in a garden that's cleaned by the rain before you can go to a gym where every piece of equipment is cleaned every time an individual uses it then deep cleaned between defined 90 minute sessions? Yeah: sounds right. I thought this too. I haven't had a beer in ages - there's none in the house. It's not that a cold beer on a hot day isn't a fine thing, or with a pizza or a curry. But in winter at home, I really can't say as I miss it enormously. Certainly that pubs are reopening is absolutely nowhere near top of my wish list. Well, yeah, except for the last however many months you've not been able to meet up with a couple of friends for a walk but you can go to a supermarket that has a couple of hundred total strangers in it.... I think the easing is about right but I fully expect a few spikes as the pubs re-open. People appear to lose ALL common sense as soon as a drop of alcohol crosses their lips.
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Post by Big Blue on Feb 23, 2021 9:55:23 GMT
This is the biggest load of shite that has ever been produced in the history of the media. So in the period when we had reduced / no restrictions, no vaccine and less understanding of the development of the virus (Feb - September 2020) we had roughly the same number of deaths (actual numbers not modelled) as these cunts are predicting over this summer's same period when the population is more accepting of a cleaner lifestyle, will be mainly vaccinated, vast swathes of the weak have died (sorry to be blunt with that one), and we'll be back into summer months when, under the conditions highlighted in red, deaths were on the floor to the extent that there was less concern by the mass populace last year whereas there won't be this year. There will be deaths in the coming winter period and the concern now is that non-symptomatic COVID sufferers that die of anything at all but then test positive for what will in time become a largely benign virus will be classed a 100% COVID death. If these people are modellers I can only assume they have railway sets that don't meet up anywhere with no trackside furniture, no backdrop scenery and tractors arriving in the stations drawing caravans behind them! The only sensible thing I have read about the future of 2021 is that we will probably have to wear masks when late autumn comes around. Japan has been doing this for decades and let's have a look at their COVID death chart.....
See that May increase? That's post-blossom time when no doubt tourists spread a bit of it more. Then the daily deaths over the winter months are weather accelerated as in the UK but the numbers for a population twice that of the UK and at least as densely collected show that there is some fundamental difference in behaviour, control etc.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Feb 23, 2021 11:13:39 GMT
^ I know, mad isn’t it? And they wonder why people are becoming sceptical of the science. Why is no one in the media seriously questioning them on this?
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Post by ChrisM on Feb 23, 2021 11:30:08 GMT
^ The "blunt remark" about so many of the weak being killed is true, though. It is still reckoned that IIRC over 80% of the deaths in the UK due to the virus are of those over 80 and/or "vulnerable".... which does make me wonder.
Also looking at the figures from Johns Hopkins university, although the UK is about 5th in the list for the number of deaths due to the virus, we are sadly the leaders (1st) globally in the number of deaths per 100,000 of the population. India, despite featuring high in the list of deaths per country (about 5th or 6th) has one of the lowest deaths per 100,000
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Post by Tim on Feb 23, 2021 11:31:43 GMT
R4 were interviewing Neil Ferguson last night. Isn't he the guy whose stats were totally discredited and had to step down from Sage for breaking the rules to go and shag someone elses wife? Twat.
Why does someone like him have ANY credibility.
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Post by garry on Feb 23, 2021 11:45:33 GMT
This is the biggest load of shite that has ever been produced in the history of the media. So in the period when we had reduced / no restrictions, no vaccine and less understanding of the development of the virus (Feb - September 2020) we had roughly the same number of deaths (actual numbers not modelled) as these cunts are predicting over this summer's same period when the population is more accepting of a cleaner lifestyle, will be mainly vaccinated, vast swathes of the weak have died (sorry to be blunt with that one), and we'll be back into summer months when, under the conditions highlighted in red, deaths were on the floor to the extent that there was less concern by the mass populace last year whereas there won't be this year. There will be deaths in the coming winter period and the concern now is that non-symptomatic COVID sufferers that die of anything at all but then test positive for what will in time become a largely benign virus will be classed a 100% COVID death. If these people are modellers I can only assume they have railway sets that don't meet up anywhere with no trackside furniture, no backdrop scenery and tractors arriving in the stations drawing caravans behind them! The only sensible thing I have read about the future of 2021 is that we will probably have to wear masks when late autumn comes around. Japan has been doing this for decades and let's have a look at their COVID death chart.....
See that May increase? That's post-blossom time when no doubt tourists spread a bit of it more. Then the daily deaths over the winter months are weather accelerated as in the UK but the numbers for a population twice that of the UK and at least as densely collected show that there is some fundamental difference in behaviour, control etc. The biggest load of shite? Can I point you to any of Prof Ferguson’s other forecasts. Take a look at hiv, sars, foot and mouth. By his standards this is accurate!
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Post by Big Blue on Feb 23, 2021 12:00:42 GMT
^ The "blunt remark" about so many of the weak being killed is true, though. It is still reckoned that IIRC over 80% of the deaths in the UK due to the virus are of those over 80 and/or "vulnerable".... which does make me wonder. Also looking at the figures from Johns Hopkins university, although the UK is about 5th in the list for the number of deaths due to the virus, we are sadly the leaders (1st) globally in the number of deaths per 100,000 of the population. India, despite featuring high in the list of deaths per country (about 5th or 6th) has one of the lowest deaths per 100,000 This has a lot to do with healthcare in the UK. Despite our protestations we do know how to keep the infirm alive so they are there for the taking by flu, COVID, damp etc.. India's average age of population is 12 years younger than ours (28 v 40) and their over 65s are 6.5% vs UK 18% so their target COVID deaths have croaked it before COVID can catch them. That said the over 65 populations of Italy and Germany are far higher than the UK (mid 20%) so we're not doing as well in those terms.
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Post by PG on Feb 23, 2021 12:55:42 GMT
R4 were interviewing Neil Ferguson last night. Isn't he the guy whose stats were totally discredited and had to step down from Sage for breaking the rules to go and shag someone elses wife? Twat. Why does someone like him have ANY credibility. It remains a mystery to me too. That latest SAGE modelling is totally bonkers. Probably the only way to shut SAGE up is to have most of them sectioned under the mental health act.
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Post by garry on Feb 23, 2021 13:09:42 GMT
R4 were interviewing Neil Ferguson last night. Isn't he the guy whose stats were totally discredited and had to step down from Sage for breaking the rules to go and shag someone elses wife? Twat. Why does someone like him have ANY credibility. It remains a mystery to me too. That latest SAGE modelling is totally bonkers. Probably the only way to shut SAGE up is to have most of them sectioned under the mental health act. Some of Ferguson’s work: In 2002, he predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. There were 177 deaths from BSE. In 2005, he predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, 282 people died In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a “reasonable worst-case scenario” was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.
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Post by PG on Feb 23, 2021 16:21:52 GMT
Some of Ferguson’s work: In 2002, he predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. There were 177 deaths from BSE. In 2005, he predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, 282 people died In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a “reasonable worst-case scenario” was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K. He also was one of the lead scientists "advising" the government on the 2001 foot and mouth outbreak that included the contiguous cull policy (killing not only all animals on infected farms but all animals - infected or not - in a ring round any infected farm) that led to the mass slaughter of millions of animals. The man's an idiot. A dangerous idiot.
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Post by Roadrunner on Feb 23, 2021 19:48:25 GMT
Some of Ferguson’s work: In 2002, he predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. There were 177 deaths from BSE. In 2005, he predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, 282 people died In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a “reasonable worst-case scenario” was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K. He also was one of the lead scientists "advising" the government on the 2001 foot and mouth outbreak that included the contiguous cull policy (killing not only all animals on infected farms but all animals - infected or not - in a ring round any infected farm) that led to the mass slaughter of millions of animals. The man's an idiot. A dangerous idiot. I agree, but for the sake of my blood pressure I shall leave it there. I would seriously consider a stretch at Her Majesty's Pleasure just to wipe the smug git off the face of the earth.
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Post by Stuntman on Feb 23, 2021 20:36:13 GMT
Jeff talks much sense in his dismantling of the SAGE modelling bollocks. And the significant differences between the UK and India populations.
I didn't know about Ferguson's previous history. He should step away from anything to do with modelling and forecasting. These things are best left to smart, savvy, experienced business-people who understand how modelling in the real world actually works. Unfortunately there aren't many of those either.
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Post by Boxer6 on Feb 23, 2021 20:48:46 GMT
^ I know, mad isn’t it? And they wonder why people are becoming sceptical of the science. Why is no one in the media seriously questioning them on this? When the science in question is spearheaded by Ferguson, is it any wonder?
As for the media, when was the last time they seriously questioned anyone (of note) about anything?
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Post by LandieMark on Feb 23, 2021 20:54:21 GMT
It seems to me that all the media want to do these days is dig the knife in without actually doing any serious work at questioning why.
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Post by racingteatray on Feb 23, 2021 21:09:29 GMT
It seems to me that all the media want to do these days is dig the knife in without actually doing any serious work at questioning why. Well unfortunately intellectual laziness is a major affliction of our times. I guess we've all had our critical faculties addled by social media echo chambers.
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