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Post by chipbutty on Jan 15, 2021 21:50:14 GMT
1) Neil Ferguson in The Times earlier in the week: “ There is quite a lot of herd immunity in places like London. Maybe 25 – 30% of the population has now been infected…that adds to the reduction of transmission “
2) PHE’s Head of Immunisation, was asked by the Science and Technology Committee what Britain should do if the vaccines proved ineffective. Her answer? England may follow a focused protection strategy, where protection is given to the vulnerable and the disease is allowed to circulate among the young where its not causing much harm.
3) A new study from Public Health England has confirmed that infection with SARS-CoV-2 confers strong immunity to the virus - Although they found that a small number among the group did get infected twice, typically they suffered a milder form of the disease.
Hmmm....At the very start of the pandemic, the UK was set on the route of herd immunity with clear guidance/justification from SAGE, Vallance and Whitty. We then had a complete change of strategy whilst the concept of herd immunity was routinely rubbished for being either inhumane or scientifically inaccurate, despite the fact the extremely qualified supporters were drawing on (what appears to be) basic concepts of virology. I hope no one lets Nadine Doris (a health minister) forget she announced there was no such thing as herd immunity and that as antibodies fade, so too does any immunity you had.
So, as we approach our 11th month of restrictions, we appear to be coming full circle – and I have a few questions:
1) As had been suggested early during the 1st lockdown (by various experts) – given the above, wouldn’t it have been better if the virus had been encouraged to circulate through the population during the late spring and summer months in order to reduce the amount of infection and severity of infection during the winter months when the NHS is bursting at the seams ?
2) If PHE think a focused protection strategy is the exit route if the vaccines aren’t effective, why wasn’t this strategy employed as soon as it was clear that healthy under 65s were not at risk ? This was known well before it was known that vaccines were much closer than originally thought, so just how long they were going to wait for a vaccine before considering exit plan B ?
I am somewhat dismayed that this has not been followed up with any vigour by the press (still too busy cranking out the disaster porn and begging for more restrictions), but I can’t be the only one who is going to be “ a tad miffed “ if we do end up full circle.
Also interesting to note from reports in the press that Government draft guidelines that would allow discharge from Hospital into a care home without a negative test. The implications are significant because: “For the first time, the Government appears to acknowledge that people could test positive for Covid but not be infectious “
Whether this is because the PCR test is too sensitive (over amplification picking up virus fragments) and/or has a significant false positive rate has not been declared, but it clearly brings into question the accuracy of the data that is being used to justify the restrictions and the fact that the Government know this.
Why don't they just stop mass testing ? and only test those admitted to hospital with Covid symptoms ?
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Post by ChrisM on Jan 15, 2021 22:04:16 GMT
^ Because George Orwell was right all along and the government want to control us and our movements ?
Let's face it, with about 1 in 20 of the population infected across the UK, it shouldn't take very long before everyone has come into contact with the virus, and either died, suffered and recovered, or shown no ill-effects (pun intended). Has it all been a mass fiasco just to "protect" the NHS? I have to say that when I heard a discussion last week or the week before saying that here were 30,000 people ill with the virus in hospitals across the UK, I thought "that doesn't seem very many, TBH". If almost all beds are occupied by covid patients since almost all operations have been cancelled, 30,000 hospital beds doesn't sound that many for a population of around 70 million. Does anyone know what the current population is, and how many hospital beds there are in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland?
Incidentally it appears that Germany took its most decent drastic steps on lockdown when their rate has "only" reached around 200 per 100,000 whereas in the UK we are panicing because it's around 900 per 100,000
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Post by Alex on Jan 16, 2021 19:46:54 GMT
Letting Covid rip through the population was never a viable option, especially last March when we had no knowledge of the long term effects of the virus (and we still don't). The notion that healthy under 65s are safe is to forget that such statements refer to mortality and don't take into account just how sick it can make some seemingly very fit and healthy people.
I hate the situation we're in and the effects it's having on our lives. Seeing the clear impact it is having on my two children, particularly my eldest who has been left desperately lonely is horrible but we are where we are because we have to get it under control and put simply it has been allowed to run riot by people not sticking to the rules just at the same time that a new more virulent variant of the virus has appeared.
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Post by bryan on Jan 16, 2021 20:44:32 GMT
My best mate has been into hospital twice in the last 2 weeks with covid, blood oxygen of 86, secondary pneumonia, on dextramethaxone, stabilised, discharged and a few days later going down hill and back in
He's 45, no underlying health conditions, fit, not overweight and is really struggling for his life.....it's not just old or ill people
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Post by LandieMark on Jan 16, 2021 22:06:08 GMT
Sorry to hear that Bryan. It's the fact that it's so indiscriminatory that's clearly the issue.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2021 23:24:39 GMT
Sorry about the bad news Bryan, let's hope the fat lady sings a good note or 10 and he pulls through.
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Post by Roadsterstu on Jan 16, 2021 23:32:07 GMT
Sorry to hear that Bryan. It's the fact that it's so indiscriminatory that's clearly the issue. This. And, frankly, it is what people who rubbish it because they don't know anyone who has had it, let alone become seriously ill or died from it, need to bear in mind. So little is still known about it or it's long term effects. If it hasn't had an impact on you, your friends or family then consider that there are those who have suffered very badly indeed.
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Post by Alex on Jan 17, 2021 0:03:37 GMT
Sorry to hear this Bryan. I hope he pulls through and the after effects aren't too long lasting.
My brother ended up on oxygen in hospital back in early April and he's on 35 (albeit he has t1 diabetes and is also obese). His wife is 32 and also got it from him but didn't suffer much ill effects however her sense of taste and smell has yet to fully recover 10 months on making some of her favourite foods utterly unpalatable.
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Post by bryan on Jan 17, 2021 6:37:33 GMT
Sorry to hear that Bryan. It's the fact that it's so indiscriminatory that's clearly the issue. He has 3 kids 13-18, his wife and one daughter both got it with mild symptoms, youngest daughter not tested but asymptomatic and his son tested negative (assumption is also asymptomatic) Taste wise anything savoury taste like rotten veg and he chucks his guts up.. lovely
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Post by Andy C on Jan 17, 2021 8:49:05 GMT
Fingers cross for a full recovery for him, Bryan.
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Post by johnc on Jan 17, 2021 10:27:15 GMT
We also need to remember that Sweden basically tried the herd immunity route and they are now having to introduce more restrictions as their hospitals become full in this second wave.
I hope your friend makes a full recovery Bryan. I was speaking to a friend yesterday and he tested positive the week before Christmas (a nightmare for him because he has an online business and relies a lot on Christmas). He had to isolate as did his family and staff who all subsequently tested positive together with some members of their families. He bounced back fairly quickly but says he feels really tired after a days work and he has lost a lot of strength. His wife is fairing less well and is still in bed a lot of the day unable to do very much, struggling a bit with breathing but not so bad that they will admit her and again feeling tired and weak. His staff have been hit in the same way - some floored and others who thought it was no worse that a bad cold. That's nearly a month now and virtually none of them feel completely better and a couple look like they have a fair way to go yet so I think we need to treat it seriously.
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Post by LandieMark on Jan 17, 2021 10:46:20 GMT
I've not spoken much about my symptoms since getting it at the beginning of October, but I am going to do so now.
The only symptom that alerted me to possible COVID was a complete loss of taste and smell. I didn't have a fever or cough, but did feel unwell.
I tested positive and self isolated for the 2 weeks.
During that time, symptoms felt flu like. I had severe headaches, muscle pain, dizziness and fatigue.
Those symptoms lasted two full weeks - the worst of which was the muscle pain - constant for two weeks and Paracetamol wasn't cutting it. I'm not allowed Ibuprofen.
The fatigue has continued on and off with no logic to it since then. Although I didn't have a cough or breathlessness at the time, I now have a persistent cough since recovering from the main 2 weeks. The first month was difficult. I could sometimes manage a short walk, but other times I was completely out of breath with chest pains walking to the end of the driveway. The fatigue would absolutely floor me and I wouldn't be able to do anything much for the rest of the day.
This has gradually improved, but now and again, it will hit without warning. I can generally walk a few miles with the dogs - this is fell walking, so reasonably strenuous as far as walking goes. sometimes I am fine. Sometimes I am seriously out of breath with chest pains. It is improving slowly, but I have little physical strength and there is no rhyme or reason to the symptoms.
Concentration is sometimes difficult and the "brain fog" is very real. I have absolutely no idea how long I will have these symptoms, which is obviously concerning. I am getting on with life the best I can at the moment.
I am against a lot of the restrictions, but anyone who thinks this isn't serious is an idiot.
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Post by Big Blue on Jan 17, 2021 11:55:58 GMT
I am against a lot of the restrictions, but anyone who thinks this isn't serious is an idiot. I don’t think it’s the serious element that’s questionable: it’s the prevalence of the seriousness dictating the restrictions that’s causing most grief, which has come about due to the seeming randomness of symptoms. Cancer is serious, even if you don’t have it, but less serious to individuals that don’t until they or a close relative or friend does. Perhaps that’s one way of looking at the seriousness. Make no mistake: these restrictions are a total PITA but it’s been under a year. Soviets had two generations of it.
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Post by Stuntman on Jan 17, 2021 21:00:24 GMT
I am unhappy with the restrictions being placed on my civil liberties and I am also unhappy with the lack of compliance with some of these restrictions by some other people.
I have a fair amount of sympathy with Pete's point of view and I do think that a lot of these restrictions are disproportionate to the severity of the disease and they have also produced a bunch of distinctly unwelcome consequences which are in many ways worse than allowing the disease to (at least partially) take its course.
That said, of course I have every sympathy for those who have been affected severely with Covid themselves.
I sincerely hope that the Government's strategy for the next few months is all about vaccinating as many people as possible, as quickly as possible - and then lifting the restrictions as soon as possible. I am sick of the fearmongering.
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Post by LandieMark on Jan 17, 2021 21:22:40 GMT
Yes, that's kind of where I'm at.
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Post by michael on Jan 18, 2021 11:55:54 GMT
He also said "We couldn't have predicted this new variant coming up, but the new variant without doubt will make the relaxation of restrictions more difficult because it is substantially more transmissible." And that current restrictions might be required until Autumn 2021. If vaccines don't work we're screwed, this approach would be an attempt to move forward with the circumstances we would have found ourselves in which would have been entirely undesirable. The evidence is the vaccines work.
The study also said, "The study found that antibody protection after infection lasts for at least 5 months, on average, and scientists are currently studying whether protection may last for longer. This means that many people who contracted the disease in the first wave may now be vulnerable to catching it again." The PHE study supports the view that as antibodies fade so does your immunity. For COVID there is no chance of herd immunity without a vaccine.
In the first instance the effort was to reduce the rate of transmission in order not to overwhelm the health service. The unknowns of COVID were and are still to great a factor than to use this approach with confidence. As it turns out, using the PHE study above as evidence, it wouldn't have worked as antibodies fade in a relatively short period. Also, if we had done that every country on earth would have closed its borders to us with good cause.
The government had a great deal of confidence in a vaccine being available by the end of the year, and they were right. There has been a massive investment in vaccine research and preparedness prior to COVID and this is paying off.
I'm not a fan of lockdowns but I do support this one as it has a clear purpose and that's to allow the rollout of the vaccine. The argument for me now is about getting a pathway published to an exit and holding the government to that.
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Post by racingteatray on Jan 18, 2021 17:47:30 GMT
I'm not a fan of lockdowns but I do support this one as it has a clear purpose and that's to allow the rollout of the vaccine. The argument for me now is about getting a pathway published to an exit and holding the government to that.
I don't have the strongest of views on lockdown - I can see the pros and cons of the arguments for and against and am simply glad I don't have to be the one to make the call. But apart from that, I agree with what you say.
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Post by chipbutty on Jan 18, 2021 18:13:20 GMT
Antibodies fade over a short period once no longer required - isn't the whole point that the antibodies are authored in our cells, ready to be manufactured and deployed when required (i.e - this is why we vaccinate people, introduce modified/weak elements of the virus so that our bodies learn how to create antibodies if and when the real virus is encountered). It wasn't a viable option politically once the infamous modelling had been produced, but if you consider that the infection rate was falling before the 1st lockdown was implemented (Whitty confirmed this was true to the HoC Select Committee), then technically the UK had let it rip and Armageddon did not necessarily lie on the other side of Easter without a lockdown. Long Covid impact was recently studied and estimated at 1 in 20 worst case - 12 months in there is a substantial volume of data available and at no point do would long covid symptoms justify these restrictions. Sweden have introduced more restrictions, but nowhere near the level of Europe and their cases and admissions are declining. As well as " recommending" that facemasks are worn during peak hours on public transport, they have reduced numbers allowed at public events, introduced additional curfews on alcohol sales, closed state run facilities like swimming pools and can stop nursing home visits as required. Our world in data reporting as of 17th Jan shows that on deaths per million, Sweden is 21st (behind Belgium, Italy, UK, US, Spain and France). Considering their relative lightness of touch and the fact that they have acknowledged they made the same mistakes the UK did in the early days (Not closing borders and control care home admissions from hospitals). Of course, the causality is numerous and complex, but to dispel Sweden is just as unhelpful as holding them up as a bastion. This is a great graph for some context: However, what is clear is that I haven't seen a single study that proves the efficacy of lockdown restrictions in reducing deaths and this is very important if the world wants to understand how to react the next time this happens. I think history is going to be very critical of the strategies deployed over the last 12 months when the full and wider impact is felt as there is fair chance that the global economy will just collapse in on itself (for a variety of reasons) and collateral damage will be immense. Another consideration that doesn't really get much discussion is whether the restrictions are in any way responsible for the mutations have occurred. To panic and over react is human and nine times out of ten, is probably the best initial response, but we are well beyond panic stations and now crippled by hysteria driven by a combination of arse covering and political manoeuvring (IMO). I don't have the answers, but I do expect that these topics are analysed and discussed rationally within Government and the press. We are still waiting for a cost/benefit analysis of the lockdown strategy (likely they won't do one because it's horrific) and it is ridiculous that it is not really possible to question the restrictive strategies in the press without being called a granny killing bastard. We are a mutation away from SAGE stamping their feet again and blowing any exit to shit. As I have said before, I do not understand how we can crawl out of the hole with the current testing strategy - even if Covid was obliterated tomorrow, testing 600k people a day is going to register 10,000 plus daily cases and hundreds of deaths a week.
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Post by racingteatray on Jan 18, 2021 18:48:27 GMT
Antibodies fade over a short period once no longer required - isn't the whole point that the antibodies are authored in our cells, ready to be manufactured and deployed when required (i.e - this is why we vaccinate people, introduce modified/weak elements of the virus so that our bodies learn how to create antibodies if and when the real virus is encountered). Not in all cases. The duration of that "cell memory" varies widely from virus to virus and the reasons why are, I believe, still not fully understand. And unfortunately coronavirus appears to be similar to flu in that the vaccine does not confer long-term immunity in the way some of your childhood or holiday jabs do (eg Polio or Yellow Fever). Remember you have to have your flu jab once a year because (a) the immunity is typically long gone within 12 months and (b) the flu vaccine mutates more readily than a nerd bitten by a radioactive spider. So the coronavirus vaccine is probably going to be another one which has to be repeated regularly from now on, because there's next to no chance that this virus won't become effectively globally endemic. And it will periodically mutate (as flu does) into something that the current vaccines are not effective against.
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Post by Stuntman on Jan 18, 2021 20:34:51 GMT
^^^ In which case, I look forward to my annual Covid vaccine and my way of life returning to how it was in 2019.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2021 22:34:51 GMT
Unless, as with standard flu, the covid vaccine requires the correct 'type' or variant for the vaccine to be effective and rather like the standard flu, if they do not predict the correct type, you get the disease anyway.
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Post by racingteatray on Jan 18, 2021 22:54:23 GMT
^^^ In which case, I look forward to my annual Covid vaccine and my way of life returning to how it was in 2019. Indeed. Fingers crossed.
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Post by michael on Jan 18, 2021 23:01:24 GMT
The progress made with vaccine technology due to this pandemic will have far reaching benefits for future generations. There’s already talk of HIV and even MS being treatable due to new findings.
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Post by Alex on Jan 18, 2021 23:08:02 GMT
One thought that got me a bit worried earlier was whether or not we'd spent all our lockdown fund on a relatively mild virus. What I mean is, should there be another virus that comes along in 5 years time but is 10x more deadly and, unlike Covid19, starts killing children, what happens when governments around the world find they can't afford to do another lockdown and give out 80% salary furlough payments because they're still paying for this one?
When (if) we get Covid19 under control we are really going to have to have a serious discussion about how we control viruses and stop them ripping through the population before we start to react to them. Globally there needs to be a more concerted effort to stop zoonotic diseases making their way from wild animals into the human population.
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Post by michael on Jan 18, 2021 23:23:03 GMT
Globally there needs to be a more concerted effort to stop zoonotic diseases making their way from wild animals into the human population. The phrase I’ve heard in relation to this is, “there will always be a man who wants to fuck a dog”. In terms of future issues and how we handle this one major difference is international air travel has already changed forever. That will change things unless it ever gets back to how it was. The other thing that has changed is our relationship with China and other such regimes who simply can’t be trusted to act with responsibility. Our ability develop and deploy vaccines has increased in speed which is a good thing but I’d be looking at our model of healthcare and how much that might have affected both the outcomes and way the pandemic has been approached.
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Post by Alex on Jan 18, 2021 23:34:10 GMT
I suppose as well it might also lead us to think more about lifestyle choices in the west. I think we've been too blase about our obesity and type 2 diabetes problems in this country and with this disease our poor food choices as a nation are coming home to roost.
The simple fact is that, on average, compared to a healthy person, if you're obese or have a chronic illness such as diabetes, catching Covid means you're in for a very rough ride and won't enjoy the mild illness that it's said to give most people. Our mortality rate from Covid is one of the worst in the world and the state of the nations health has to be a significant factor.
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Post by LandieMark on Jan 18, 2021 23:38:24 GMT
I imagine our mortality rate is the worst due to the shitty way we collate covid related deaths. Its completley wrong IMO.
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Post by michael on Jan 19, 2021 0:14:35 GMT
Our mortality rate is pretty shocking but given no population is the same or the way figures are measured are the same then it becomes pointless to compare. France, for example, looks very bad. They’re nearly as bad as the UK except their COVID death figures don’t include deaths at home unlike ours.
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Post by johnc on Jan 19, 2021 7:37:44 GMT
I imagine our mortality rate is the worst due to the shitty way we collate covid related deaths. Its completley wrong IMO. That's my thought too. I really don't think we are worse than almost any other country - I just think that when we treat all deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test as being due to Covid there has to be a high probability that a lot of those people would have died in any case even if they hadn't been infected with Covid. I am sure that other countries are far less strict in their interpretation of what constitutes a death due to Covid.
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Post by ChrisM on Jan 19, 2021 9:03:52 GMT
^^^ In which case, I look forward to my annual Covid vaccine and my way of life returning to how it was in 2019. Indeed. Fingers crossed. Any possibility of my way of life returning to how it was in 2015 ??
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