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Post by Blarno on Aug 4, 2020 18:09:35 GMT
Yes. I've put worse in my body in the past and I'm still here.
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Post by chipbutty on Aug 4, 2020 20:55:53 GMT
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending24july2020Week 30 total deaths report from the ONS Some key points Week 30 is the 6th consecutive week where total deaths have been below the 5 year average Some of these deaths would have likely occurred over the duration of the year but have occurred earlier because of COVID-19. These deaths occurring earlier than expected could contribute to a period of deaths below the five-year average. Of the deaths registered in Week 30, 217 mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)", the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 18 week For comparison, Flu and Pneumonia deaths for week 30 totalled 958 (see embedded XLS) vs 217 for Covid This is the 6th consecutive week when Flu and Pneumonia deaths have been higher than Covid deaths If you then look to the Government’s own dashboard, you can see that even though testing has grown steeply towards August and that the significant increase in testing has driven an uptick in positive test cases over the same period - deaths continue to fall and hospital admissions have not increased. coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
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Post by racingteatray on Aug 8, 2020 22:06:12 GMT
Thanks ChipBolsonaro
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Post by michael on Aug 9, 2020 6:42:51 GMT
The issue with those stats is that they’re as a result of restrictions to Liberty such as social distancing. Remove those restrictions and the figures start to go up again.
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Post by racingteatray on Aug 9, 2020 7:13:22 GMT
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Post by PG on Aug 9, 2020 8:03:43 GMT
At the moment, I'm undecided re the covid vaccine. Not because I'm against vaccination, I'd just like more facts on the vaccine before deciding.
It's interesting that nobody has talked about flu vaccine as a parallel. I know that the flu vaccine is only for the most likely strains each year, but if everybody (or enough for herd immunity) had that flu vaccine each year, the surely we'd have a lot less flu each winter? Unless you are in a high risk group, the reasons is twofold probably. People think that if they get flu, well, "it's just flu". And also, flu season does not cause any restrictions to their life. People just aren't very community minded in general, sadly. But as somebody who has had proper flu twice, I pay every year to have it now.
So, without compulsion, why do we think that enough people will have a Covid vaccine? If the economy has opened up enough and things are improving, I'm not sure that enough people at low risk will bother. So the vaccine will only ever be amongst those who are sensible or who are high risk. Reality is, without compulsion to be vaccinated, we'll probably have to live with Covid, even once a vaccine arrives.
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Post by chipbutty on Aug 9, 2020 13:54:04 GMT
The issue with those stats is that they’re as a result of restrictions to Liberty such as social distancing. Remove those restrictions and the figures start to go up again
There is no evidence to suggest that. Since the first loosening of lockdown, there has been consistent reporting of thousands of people breaking social distancing rules and consistent hysteria of a second wave.
First it was the VE Day celebrations and street parties Then it was the BLM demonstrations Then it was the beaches Then the pubs reopening
Yet the data shows zero evidence of any second wave. So I don’t agree with your comment as it’s clear that significant volumes of the UK population are not adhering to social distancing and there have been multiple mass gatherings over the past few months which appear to have had zero impact.
Hilarious, which part of the data I have taken straight from our own government’s reporting do you not agree with, it’s all taken verbatim.
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Post by racingteatray on Aug 10, 2020 10:15:36 GMT
I wouldn't take anything our government reports verbatim or indeed with anything other than great handfuls of salt.
I just haven't yet met a medic, here in the UK or over in Italy when I was there, who said this was anything other than very serious. I think I mentioned that my wife's uncle is deputy head of the main local hospital plus the head of infectious diseases for their province, and he is deeply uncompromising in his view on it. Same with various medics I know here.
So whilst I don't subscribe to the hysteria about it either (I have after all travelled internationally since lockdown was lifted), I think you risk being at the other extreme, which strikes me as quite a selfish place.
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Post by PetrolEd on Aug 10, 2020 11:35:03 GMT
Covid really is a nasty bugger. I was guilty of becoming far too complacent where Covid was concerned.
I'm recently back from hospital and spent over a week being treated initially for Covid and Sepsis. Turns out I had Pneumonia and pericarditis in the end but the symptoms are very similar to Covid. In fact if it wasn't for Covid season I could well not be here as I was rushed to hospital with a suspected bad case of the virus. The stories from the staff at the hospital really are nasty but the worst part is how close we were to the NHS not being able to function. At one stage 70% of staff were out of action in my local hospital.
We were teetering on edge and if we have a second waive and we aren't as lucky at controlling the outbreak we would be in serious trouble. We have to be cautious.
The other eye opener is the lack of PPE the staff were using. Myself as a suspected Covid patient wasn't expected to wear a mask when speaking to the staff and their attitude was the PPE wasn't actually effective in protecting themselves and just wasn't practical in doing their job. The other surprise was even though I returned 4 negative Covid tests they were still insistent I had the virus as the testing results really aren't very accurate. Seems our knowledge of the virus is still really poor and therefore any vaccine I would worry about we just don't know enough.
It was only a CT scan and an on the ball ICU consultant that changed my diagnosis to Pneumonia after 4 days of being treated for Covid. So insistent was the hospital that I had Covid, I agreed to sign up for the new Blood Plasma tests that would have used my blood to help future sufferers however my blood would have been useless for anyone down the line.
It appears nobody has the answers, we know very little about the virus and we're still in the guessing phase that makes any early vaccines a bit of a punt job.
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Post by chipbutty on Aug 10, 2020 18:34:32 GMT
I see no reason to distrust the figures from the UK, especially as it looks like the English numbers may well receive a significant reduction (circa 10% apparently) to remove all claimed Covid deaths if the death was more than 28 days after diagnosis. If the suggestion is that the ONS are being compelled to under report hospitalisations and deaths due to Covid, then aside from marvelling at breadth and scope of coercion required to maintain such a deception, the Government are not taking advantage of the opportunity they have created. In fact Boris does a great impression of a leader who isn’t in touch with the data at all and is unable to interpret and rationalise the data he has been provided with. No one is disputing the seriousness – it’s killed thousands of people, however the "as reported" reality is that it only has the possibility to become very serious if you are elderly and/or dealing with existing serious conditions that are going to shorten your life regardless (statistical outliers notwithstanding). To be clear – this does not mean that the lives lost are any less worthwhile than those under a certain age who are generally healthy, but it does demand that the lens of perspective and rationality is applied to all policies if the risk factors are reasonably defined. Like practically everyone else, I have close relatives who fall into the “ higher risk “ categories (age + poor health + type 2 diabetes in one and age + mild COPD in another). I also have two relatives who have had successful early diagnosis and treatment of cancer – early diagnosis and treatment that has been denied to over 30,000 people in the UK alone due to Covid measures. Whilst swathes of the country are still in the grip of Covid related paralysis, it won’t be too long before the number of attributable early deaths due to cancer exceed the stated death toll for Covid (and that’s just cancer). In a bad year, the flu death toll even with a vaccine can be close to 30,000 people just in the UK – yet the world appears to have decided that death by Covid overrides any other form of passage to the afterlife and all sense of perspective has vanished. I don’t think it’s selfish to question why this is the case, I don’t think it’s selfish to demand that life altering decisions with regards to restriction of liberty are subjected to extremely robust checks and balances (which I don't believe is the case) and I don’t think it’s selfish to point out that, in my opinion, the cure is clearly worse than the disease (for a multitude of reasons). I don't have any doctor related anecdotes worthy of note (other than my neighbours who were not social distancing at all during our street VE day party), however I can share the following: Prof. Klaus Püschel (pathologist and head of the Institute of Forensic Medicine at Hamburg University Hospital), argues that “in the end, COVID-19 is a viral disease like the flu, which in most cases is harmless and is only fatal in exceptional cases“The death rate due to this disease is probably going to end up round about 0.1%, which is similar to flu” - from Dr John Lee (recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologist and Spectator columnist) “I expect about 0.1 or 0.2 percent, the same mortality rate as with influenza. I think this virus is comparable to influenza, but it could be a little more dangerous. If influenza were a new disease, nobody had it yet, and it had suddenly come into the world, the reaction of most countries would be the same as that of the corona virus.” From Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO“There is no evidence to show that the 2019 coronavirus is more lethal than respiratory adenoviruses, influenza viruses, coronaviruses from previous years, or rhinoviruses responsible for the common cold.” Dr Pablo Goldschmidt, an Argentine-French virologist specializing in tropical diseases, and Professor of Molecular Pharmacology at the Université Pierre et Marie Curie in Paris.“That is the main fear: the disease is presented as a terrible disease. The disease per se is like the flu in a normal winter. It is even weaker in the first week.” Dr Karin Mölling, a German virologist whose research focused on retroviruses, particularly human immunodeficiency virus.“Personally, I view this Covid outbreak as akin to a bad winter influenza epidemic” - Dr. John Oxford, an English virologist and Professor at Queen Mary, University of London. He is a leading expert on influenza, including bird flu and the 1918 Spanish Influenza, and HIV/AIDS (apparently)“If you take these numbers into account, they suggest that the infection fatality rate for this new coronavirus is likely to be in the same ballpark as seasonal influenza.” John Ioannidis, Stanford University’s Rehnborg Chair in Disease Prevention, Professor of Medicine, Epidemiology and Population HealthJohn Nicholls, pathology professor at the University of Hong Kong, has spent the past 25 years studying coronavirus and he served as a key member of the team that characterized SARS - he said ”Compared to SARS and MERS, we are talking about a coronavirus that has a mortality rate of eight to 10 times less deadly to SARS to MERS,” Nicholls said. “So, a correct comparison is not SARS or MERS but a severe cold. Basically, this is a severe form of the cold.”Finally – this opinion piece from Beda M Stadler (former director of the Institute for Immunology at the University of Bern, a biologist and professor emeritus) is very interesting www.worldhealth.net/news/why-everyone-was-wrong/As is this blog from a Swedish Hospital Doctor sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/
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Post by michael on Aug 10, 2020 18:48:09 GMT
It’s more than 10% if they adopted 28 days which is how Scotland calculates it. With their methodology you can test positive for COVID and die after 29 days in intensive care entirely as a result of the virus and it isn’t classed as a Covid death. The week the Scottish government claimed zero COVID deaths that very thing happened at least 8 times.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 10, 2020 19:29:26 GMT
Liars, politicians and damned statistics.
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Post by alf on Aug 14, 2020 10:30:10 GMT
Personally I like Chip's links as an alternative view. I have given up on FB for months now as I got sick of some of the bad humoured arguing and anti-vax conspiracy-theory nutjobs, but I would still be nervous about being first in line for a brand new vaccine. I would theoretically take it, but I won't be first in the queue.
I take a flu vaccine each year since I was diagnosed with asthma, but it's very mild and I run 3 times a week (fairly quick for my age, 44m 10k race pace currently and I bang out a half marathon most weekends) cycle once or twice, keep active and so on - I don't see myself as at risk, I just have had proper flu a couple of times and its shit.
I think another poll might be - will there be a vaccine that works at all? And will this mutate like flu/colds do?
Right now it's incredibly hard to tell if indeed only 5% of the UK population have had it - in which case we are in big trouble if there is a proper second wave - or if there is in fact higher incidence of immunity in the wider population. Testing for the virus can throw up positives for people who had it a long time ago and have just traces of the dead cells, and the antibody testing as it stands seems very poor. I think we do need to keep things in perspective and look at deaths from other causes. UK "excess deaths" are relatively high whatever the recent figure change shows, did we have more of it here than other places (in which case better herd immunity) or are we just fat slobs? Time will tell...
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Post by chipbutty on Aug 14, 2020 16:06:10 GMT
swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/Another interesting and comprehensive summary with links. I've cut out the bit relating to Vaccines against Covid-19 But the short short version is that a rushed vaccine for swine flu caused serious neurological damage and the UK compensation payout was £60 million (60 claimants in the UK, approx 800 affected children in Europe by 2014).
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Post by michael on Aug 14, 2020 18:15:00 GMT
The section you’ve bolded about not being sufficient virus in the population is true of the UK. That’s why the vaccine is being tested in South Africa and Brazil. I’d have thought the article authors should have known that.
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Post by Alex on Aug 14, 2020 22:32:47 GMT
The section you’ve bolded about not being sufficient virus in the population is true of the UK. That’s why the vaccine is being tested in South Africa and Brazil. I’d have thought the article authors should have known that. On another thread theres comments from others that the virus is still rampant and I really don't think it is. It hasn't gone, of course not, it was never going to, but cases are that low and enough people are acting as they've been told to that it is not at all rampant. There's spikes in rates in certain areas but action is being taken and local lockdowns implemented. The worry is that there are a lot of people who think the more general loosening of lockdown means the pandemic is over. Our next door neighbours genuinely believe the virus never existed in the first place as they've not met anyone who actually has had it.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2020 8:02:47 GMT
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Post by michael on Nov 9, 2020 12:26:53 GMT
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Post by Tim on Nov 9, 2020 12:34:28 GMT
Just saw that - wondered why the FTSE had jumped by 5.5% at 11:45 and presumably this is why.
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Post by PG on Nov 9, 2020 14:18:40 GMT
I have no idea how 90% effectiveness relates to other vaccines. But that does sound encouraging.
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Post by Roadrunner on Nov 9, 2020 14:39:39 GMT
I heard from someone who is likely to know about these things that preparations are underway for a trial mass vaccination programme in the Manchester area next month.
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Post by johnc on Nov 10, 2020 9:39:20 GMT
At least it is a proper light at the end of the tunnel. I might look at making a PalmerSport booking for next year now.
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Post by PetrolEd on Nov 16, 2020 12:15:57 GMT
Seems even more successful Vaccines are going through trials and the Pfizer one is no longer the numero uno. All seems positive and good to have choice to help bring down the cost.
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Post by michael on Nov 16, 2020 12:31:11 GMT
Seems even more successful Vaccines are going through trials and the Pfizer one is no longer the numero uno. All seems positive and good to have choice to help bring down the cost. The UK already has deal in place for a number of vaccines, the latest isn't one of them but it is good news.
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Post by chipbutty on Nov 16, 2020 12:59:57 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2020 13:03:26 GMT
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Post by Tim on Nov 16, 2020 13:15:25 GMT
Errr, there are a lot of teams round the world working flat out to come up with a vaccine so no surprise that 2 have come out close together.
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Post by PetrolEd on Nov 16, 2020 13:42:23 GMT
Two separately developed and highly successful vaccines being announced within a week of each other. What are the chances of that happening, eh? What an incredible coincidence. My take on this is that we're approaching herd immunity and the virus will soon be a memory, so these vaccines need to be rushed out before the proles realise this and that they don't require a needle stuck in them. Big Pharma has to be seen to be saving us all from the big bad wolf called Covid 19 so the shareholders can get their payouts. Buy a load of shares and then you can join the evil capitalist pigs and make money as your freedom is eroded.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Nov 16, 2020 13:46:09 GMT
Two separately developed and highly successful vaccines being announced within a week of each other. What are the chances of that happening, eh? What an incredible coincidence. My take on this is that we're approaching herd immunity and the virus will soon be a memory, so these vaccines need to be rushed out before the proles realise this and that they don't require a needle stuck in them. Big Pharma has to be seen to be saving us all from the big bad wolf called Covid 19 so the shareholders can get their payouts. You need to loosen that tin foil hat.
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Post by michael on Nov 16, 2020 13:50:36 GMT
Who'd have thought a left-wing, highly politicised BMJ editor would have that take on events?
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