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Post by racingteatray on May 7, 2020 13:03:47 GMT
I avoid pay at the pump, I prefer to deal with a real person Last time I filled up, I just paid the chap through the window they use at night when the shop has closed but the pumps haven't. He held the tap and go machine up to the inside of the glass; I held my credit card to the outside of the glass, and since the payment was less than £45, the contactless payment worked a treat and the whole thing was entirely social distancing-compliant |
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Post by racingteatray on May 7, 2020 13:06:06 GMT
Why?? Who is going to buy a new car now, with lockdown in progress so you can't drive anywhere except the shops, and many have either lost their jobs or don't know how much longer their job is going to last? Same as the airline industry, many countries have banned internationally arriving passengers so no great surprise to me that BA, Virgin Atlantic, MOL's lot and many others are proposing to slash staff numbers and that the future of some airports is in doubt. Things are being said like this is the biggest recession in our lifetime etc - I suspect that it will be the biggest depression etc in history to date. We are far more dependent on international trade and travel than ever before; you can't just put the shutters up on a country for a few weeks and expect to re-open them with very little impact. The effect of even 3 weeks of near-total lockdown would have been disastrous, but effectively 7 weeks and counting ........ the worst disaster in the history of mankind (IMHO)I disagree. It's clearly going to be painful, but I'm optimistic we can recover reasonably quickly. Depressions typically have structural and fundamental root cause(s). For example, the 1930's depression was driven by a bubble and structural problems in the banking sector. Once in the depression, those structural issues need fixing before you can climb out. Covid presents a shock to our economic systems, not because of our economic systems. Hitting a structurally sound economy with a shock is very different from an economy crashing because its structurally unsound. I take the view that I am not qualified to actually know whether it will or it won't be. All I can say, having worked in a City practice through the 2007-10 crisis, is that this feels worse and moreover feels like it's having a much deeper impact on the real economy. |
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on May 7, 2020 13:09:17 GMT
I avoid pay at the pump, I prefer to deal with a real person Given that petrol stations are one of the main sources of credit card cloning one day that may be a preference you regret. |
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Post by alf on May 7, 2020 14:16:59 GMT
News stories today are suggesting a 14% economic contraction for the whole of 2020. That's epic, and while I get the arguments about the economy being fundamentally sound before this (not sure I agree fully after years of Brexit panic, issues with the Euro area, possible issues with the US and Chinese economies also) - surely a retraction of that size will break enough structural things to be classed alongside the more typical recessions? Around 70% of the economy is driven by household spending for a start, with millions losing their jobs, and I would imagine the majority of medium-high earners outside the public sector taking less money home this year, plus many people shit scared to go out even when we are allowed to, I don't feel too positive personally!
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Post by Alex on May 9, 2020 8:50:45 GMT
I think a 14% contraction is an underestimation given how many people work in the retail, hospitality, tourism and leisure industries or operate as suppliers to them. These are all areas of our economy that will not quickly recover, if at all. Even when lockdown is lifted most companies with city centre offices will be staggering their reoccupation meaning that all those Pret, Costa and Starbucks branches that rely on trade from office workers will have reduced income for many many months and in turn their suppliers will suffer - think about all the milk the coffee shops are not currently buying. Businesses that cannot operate whilst enforcing social distancing such as cinemas, concerts or theatres wont be opening their doors till late Autumn at the earliest so all the actors, ticket sellers, prop makers, lighting/sound engineers, refreshment sellers etc will also not be working and even the company that makes the programmes will be hit. These companies are currently using the government furlough scheme to keep people in wages but that starts to wind down in July with their employees getting less and less wages which will mean they all start spending less in shops. The knock on from this is huge and it's going to be very painful.
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Post by Eff One on May 9, 2020 17:18:47 GMT
I think a 14% contraction is an underestimation given how many people work in the retail, hospitality, tourism and leisure industries or operate as suppliers to them. These are all areas of our economy that will not quickly recover, if at all... The airlines are predicting that it will be 2023 before passenger numbers return to anything approaching normality and most, if not all, of the travel industry is in the same boat. |
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Post by ChrisM on May 9, 2020 20:28:13 GMT
.... most, if not all, of the travel industry is in the same boat. That's how the virus spreads so quickly I'll get my coat....... |
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Post by ChrisM on May 9, 2020 20:41:28 GMT
I think a 14% contraction is an underestimation given how many people work in the retail, hospitality, tourism and leisure industries or operate as suppliers to them. These are all areas of our economy that will not quickly recover, if at all. Even when lockdown is lifted most companies with city centre offices will be staggering their reoccupation meaning that all those Pret, Costa and Starbucks branches that rely on trade from office workers will have reduced income for many many months and in turn their suppliers will suffer - think about all the milk the coffee shops are not currently buying. Businesses that cannot operate whilst enforcing social distancing such as cinemas, concerts or theatres wont be opening their doors till late Autumn at the earliest so all the actors, ticket sellers, prop makers, lighting/sound engineers, refreshment sellers etc will also not be working and even the company that makes the programmes will be hit. These companies are currently using the government furlough scheme to keep people in wages but that starts to wind down in July with their employees getting less and less wages which will mean they all start spending less in shops. The knock on from this is huge and it's going to be very painful. We've effectively been in lockdown for 7 weeks already (6 weeks official plus a week beforehand of "only essential businesses should be open") which is roughly 14% of the year. Looks like there is going to be at least another 2 to 3 weeks of this to follow when an announcement is made tomorrow. Although not everything in the economy has shut down, a significant proportion has, and although it is very easy to force everyone to stop working overnight, it is not going to be anything like as easy to get businesses moving again, and they won't all run at full speed as soon as they start up. The economy this year has been ruined, wouldn't surprise me if it fell by 50% or more, with entire sectors being wiped out for months (entertainment, hospitality, leisure, holiday trade etc). if you work in one of those sectors and have lost your job, it's not as easy as just finding another employer in the same line of work, you will need to find or acquire new skills and hope that you can find an employer who will risk taking you on. I personally don't think that the government has any idea of how difficult it will be to get things moving again, and I don't think they have a detailed plan, nor have they thought through the consequences (for example, for many unless their children are at school or somewhere supervised during the day, they cannot return to work). I'm convinced that this will be the biggest downturn in history, not just in the UK but world-wide, and I hope for the sake of my children and grand-children that some sort of economic miracle does occur when things start to become more "normal". I also hope that our government in particular learns from this, and is better prepared for a "next time" - we are an island and it should have been a lot easier and quicker for us to put up barriers to stop people who were possibly infected from coming in |
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Post by michael on May 9, 2020 21:01:47 GMT
Being an island is irrelevant when people travel in planes.
Of course the government know how difficult this will be but you’re working from the point of view of being sure what we are dealing with or were dealing with when we don’t. We know everything but we know nothing.
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Post by racingteatray on May 10, 2020 17:05:37 GMT
Are you sure you'd cut the government this much slack if it wasn't a Tory government?
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2020 17:55:07 GMT
For me, if it's Starmer rather than the other pillox then yes. Corbyn and the other nutjobs can find their own backsides.
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Post by michael on May 10, 2020 18:19:14 GMT
Are you sure you'd cut the government this much slack if it wasn't a Tory government? If any other government had followed the best advice that was available then why not? |
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Post by racingteatray on May 11, 2020 7:27:03 GMT
Are you sure you'd cut the government this much slack if it wasn't a Tory government? If any other government had followed the best advice that was available then why not? Shouldn't governments lead rather than follow? And whilst I approve of the apparent dedication to listening to scientific advisors, all this talk of following and repeated specious references to "the Science" (which is not a "thing" by the way) merely makes me suspect a concerted effort to scapegoat the scientists later on. If I were Chris Whitty or Patrick Vallance, I'd be feeling most concerned that I was being slowly hung out to dry. That all having been said, I do think Boris has an immensely difficult balancing act, not made any easier by the proliferation of hawks in his cabinet keen on lifting lockdown and getting those workshy masses back to the grindstone, combined with portentious whinging from the sidelines from perennial right-wing rent-a-gobs like Iain Duncan-Smith. |
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on May 11, 2020 7:38:45 GMT
If any other government had followed the best advice that was available then why not? Shouldn't governments lead rather than follow? No, that’s a slippery slope and you end up like the US where political considerations Trump everything else. I want my government to make a decision based on consultations with the experts in their field. |
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Post by michael on May 11, 2020 8:44:14 GMT
If any other government had followed the best advice that was available then why not? Shouldn't governments lead rather than follow? And whilst I approve of the apparent dedication to listening to scientific advisors, all this talk of following and repeated specious references to "the Science" (which is not a "thing" by the way) merely makes me suspect a concerted effort to scapegoat the scientists later on. If I were Chris Whitty or Patrick Vallance, I'd be feeling most concerned that I was being slowly hung out to dry. That all having been said, I do think Boris has an immensely difficult balancing act, not made any easier by the proliferation of hawks in his cabinet keen on lifting lockdown and getting those workshy masses back to the grindstone, combined with portentious whinging from the sidelines from perennial right-wing rent-a-gobs like Iain Duncan-Smith. You can lead and follow advice. I'm amazed by how many people think the government should be doing everything. I'm hoping the NHS will be having a clear out of managers responsible for procurement as it's clearly a government responsibility to be keeping their supplies in order for example.
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Post by racingteatray on May 11, 2020 10:59:27 GMT
The problem seems to be that, in the classic Tory tradition of seeking to eat their own, the right-wing of the Tory party and its various press orifices seems, in their apparent quest for freedom for all, to be revving up an argument that it was not the best advice that was sought or got followed. In fact they seem to be giving the advice a right pasting.
I'm not venturing a view on the scientific advice either way as I'm really not qualified to comment. But lots of the usual mouthy suspects seem to feel qualified to comment, as ever, without feeling the need to be actually be qualified to comment. And as a result it seems to me that Mr Johnson risks being damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.
Now, not being a Johnson fan, I'd be lying if I said I didn't enjoy watching him squirm under pressure, but at this point, with nose held I prefer him to any of the likely potential replacements from the Tory party should he fall.
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Post by Tim on May 11, 2020 11:15:54 GMT
Are the Tories pre-programmed to try and pull themselves apart?
For decades we've had them arguing about Europe and now that's been resolved I foolishly expected they might shut up and agree on something for a while, but apparently not!
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Post by michael on May 11, 2020 11:17:02 GMT
Fear not, the party always comes back together.
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Post by Tim on May 11, 2020 11:27:18 GMT
I know but they're like one of those high-maintenance couples that are forever falling out/throwing each other out and then getting back together to the extent you're scared to ask how the other is when you bump into only one of them - it's wearing. Plus rather than it just being a random couple these are the people of the party that's supposed to be governing us at the moment. It'd be nice if they at least tried to keep it behind closed doors! Labour really need to up their dissension game to compete  |
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Post by racingteatray on May 11, 2020 11:32:36 GMT
Labour really need to up their dissension game to compete Well they've given it a pretty damned good go of late!! Starmer seems to have nixed the Mad Momentumers for the moment, but I wonder how long before they retrench. I have equal disdain for the left and the right these days. I always disagreed with the British left, but nowadays the British right pisses me off too. |
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Post by michael on May 11, 2020 11:36:48 GMT
I think Starmer's troubles will really start when he has to decide if Corbyn should be expelled from the party.
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Post by Tim on May 11, 2020 12:12:09 GMT
I think Starmer has successfully changed the balance of their NEC away from Momentumers.
I suspect he'll be hoping Jezza catches Covid-19 and he gets expelled by, er, natural causes!!
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Post by johnc on May 12, 2020 7:40:33 GMT
I feel the Tory party is going through the same 15 year reset as the Labour party went through after they lost to Margaret Thatcher. The only difference is that they managed to hang on to power because the opposition was so woeful. I'm not sure that any party would have done anything differently through this crisis so all the criticism is a bit rich but at the moment I think the shit stick has been used at both ends as far as British politics are concerned and it will take a while before a more centrist view starts to prevail. Remember we still have Brexit proper in just over 6 months!
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Post by Tim on May 12, 2020 9:43:18 GMT
Remember we still have Brexit proper in just over 6 months! Shudder! I heard someone, possibly Dominic Raab, talking about it on R4 this morning. I didn't listen, I just heard him say the words 'deal' and 'Brexit'. I think that is going to be as much a test of Johnson's premiership as the current crisis - he'll be managing a recovering economy (hopefully), recriminations from everyone about the lockdown, testing performance and easing and on top of it all he'll have the 2 sides of the Tory party with a particularly strong voice from the right wing who have clearly been emboldened by the last 4 years (I can't believe it's been going on for that long). On top of that the return of Brexit will undoubtedly see the return of that odious stain on humankind, The Farage! |
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Post by racingteatray on May 12, 2020 17:27:34 GMT
I thought it was clever of Starmer to resist calling for an extension to Brexit. To paraphrase what he said, it was something along the lines of "they said they can get it done by then, so we're going to hold them to that and see how they get on".
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Post by michael on May 12, 2020 17:53:09 GMT
He’s very sharp but I’d expect no less. In terms of Brexit I’m expecting a fudge of sorts but for some agreement at the eleventh hour.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on May 12, 2020 17:54:38 GMT
I thought it was clever of Starmer to resist calling for an extension to Brexit. To paraphrase what he said, it was something along the lines of " they said they can get it done by then, so we're going to hold them to that and see how they get on". Yes, no point in ending his press honeymoon early. |
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Post by ChrisM on May 12, 2020 19:12:59 GMT
With so much trade now on hold due to the virus stopping production, we only need the "essentials" such as food and medicines at the moment, so maybe this puts us in the driving seat for forging new trade arrangements? Another example: All the crap about whether or not UK air worthiness certificates and pilot training given in the UK would still be valid in Europe has kind-of gone out the window as there's basically no aircraft flying etc etc. Maybe we need a new word to describe what we are going through; Brexvid-19 or Co-Brexit ?
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Post by Boxer6 on May 12, 2020 20:07:38 GMT
With so much trade now on hold due to the virus stopping production, we only need the "essentials" such as food and medicines at the moment, so maybe this puts us in the driving seat for forging new trade arrangements? Another example: All the crap about whether or not UK air worthiness certificates and pilot training given in the UK would still be valid in Europe has kind-of gone out the window as there's basically no aircraft flying etc etc. Maybe we need a new word to describe what we are going through; Brexvid-19 or Co-Brexit ? Hmm. Just need to take a look at any of the plane-finder apps to see how many aircraft are still flying! Not as many as pre-Covid, granted, and nowhere near as many landing in the UK as there were, but still. |
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Post by ChrisM on May 12, 2020 21:24:45 GMT
^
Apart from the good old USA, most of the flights are cargo planes or passenger planes flying with cargo in them, and no passengers.
The number of planes flying over the UK is startlingly low
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