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Post by PG on Apr 30, 2020 17:54:22 GMT
Interesting conversation with a friend today. Will the Covid-19 crisis put back any adoption of electric cars for years? People who say it will point to cheap oil (removes any cost savings) and that nobody will have any money to virtue signal for quite a few years.
On the other hand, a lot of growth in the UK market is going to be company car tax driven, and that won't change. Plus there have been no signs of the EU deciding to loosen the fleet average targets. Also, the fact that better air quality has been plain for everyone to see these past few weeks (globally) might make the arguments against ICE in cities even stronger.
I read an article today that said that if governments are going to have to spend money for the next years supporting the economy, apart from health they may as well spend it on "green" things as that was going to be have to be done. So they might be able to kill two birds with one stone.
What do we think?
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Post by PetrolEd on Apr 30, 2020 18:14:17 GMT
No idea which way it'll go. Will there be the funding for the charging network which is currently so woeful? Will manufacturers have the R&D spend? With the typical electric small car still 30K plus will people want to spend that money rather then half that on an ICE car?
Got to agree with the benefits of no ICE cars in towns and cities but its not just cars to blame for our air quality.
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Post by Roadrunner on Apr 30, 2020 19:14:00 GMT
I think it will be seen as an opportunity to regenerate to a 'new normal' where lots of things are done differently. Commuting will definitely be reduced, but it is an opportunity to change how that reduced amount is done. Wearing, for me, an unusually Keynesian hat I see an opportunity to spend and develop our way into a new, greener future.
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Post by ChrisM on Apr 30, 2020 19:28:55 GMT
Hard to say but with many people losing their jobs and/or eating into savings to get through these difficult times, I think there won't be as much money around for people to spend on cars, so more likely IMHO that this will put the case for electric cars back
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Post by chipbutty on Apr 30, 2020 19:41:05 GMT
Mass EV adoption only happens when the tech and supporting infrastructure is in place.
So if the Government are looking for a project to spunk the magic pennies up, then this must surely be a front runner.
It’s an enviro wonk’s wet dream, Charging network, road pricing and mass surveillance in one fell swoop. And if anyone gets another funny cough you can subjugate the plebs (sorry, save lives and protect the NHS angels) at the flick of a switch.
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Post by Alex on Apr 30, 2020 20:39:56 GMT
A lot of fleets have been seeing an increase in plug in hybrids (most co car drivers need more range than most EVs offer) and there could be a lot suddenly having to be repossessed by leasing companies from businesses that fail over the coming months which could lead to a glut of nearly new PHEVs and regular hybrids hitting the market which could in turn push down prices. All supposing the inevitable recession doesn't mean there are too few buyers.
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Post by michael on Apr 30, 2020 21:43:22 GMT
I think it’s time to roll back some of the crucifying regulation that has mullered the car industry and others.
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Post by racingteatray on May 1, 2020 7:33:44 GMT
Mass EV adoption only happens when the tech and supporting infrastructure is in place. So if the Government are looking for a project to spunk the magic pennies up, then this must surely be a front runner. It’s an enviro wonk’s wet dream, Charging network, road pricing and mass surveillance in one fell swoop. And if anyone gets another funny cough you can subjugate the plebs (sorry, save lives and protect the NHS angels) at the flick of a switch. I tend to agree with this assessment, dreary though it is. I confess that, keen on taking environmental matters seriously as I am, when faced with the sort of po-faced busybodies that populate government thinktanks and the like, who see a bit of fun as thoroughly unnecessary and gasp "but someone might die", there is a little part of me that immediately goes into what I might term "Bolsonaro Mode" (i.e. wants to shrug and say "so what"...)
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2020 9:29:26 GMT
We have a pleb here although he is not in government, just an ex copper. He phones the elderly neighbour and tells her not to let me get her shopping or put it away for her. Apparently I am killing people, the fact that I have spoken to nhs 111 and been cleared for what I do is of no importance. SOME people are just losing it and trying to take everyone else with them. Nowt so queer as folk as the saying goes.
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Post by garry on May 1, 2020 11:57:32 GMT
Struggle to see how the situation will help e cars, but don’t see it as any more or less difficult than for higher end automotive in general - it’s going to be tricky to convince customers to spend on any large discretionary item for a while.
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Post by johnc on May 1, 2020 12:10:17 GMT
Companies are still considering electric cars but the charging infrastructure is not going to be a top priority after this lockdown in my opinion. The amount being spent on grants and furlough is going to be anything up to 10yrs of EU subs so there is going to be a hell of a lot of debt to be repaid.
The reduction in global pollution has been 8% with almost no-one going anywhere. Pardon the French but WTF is the other 92% coming from - that appears to be continuing despite us all sitting around doing nothing and it surely must be more important to tackle the 92% instead of the 8%.
I don't think that oil will stay cheap long term but I think the ICE still has a long way to go until a proper EV charging structure is in place and the cost of EV's falls significantly.
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Post by garry on May 1, 2020 12:20:34 GMT
Companies are still considering electric cars but the charging infrastructure is not going to be a top priority after this lockdown in my opinion. The amount being spent on grants and furlough is going to be anything up to 10yrs of EU subs so there is going to be a hell of a lot of debt to be repaid. The reduction in global pollution has been 8% with almost no-one going anywhere. Pardon the French but WTF is the other 92% coming from - that appears to be continuing despite us all sitting around doing nothing and it surely must be more important to tackle the 92% instead of the 8%.I don't think that oil will stay cheap long term but I think the ICE still has a long way to go until a proper EV charging structure is in place and the cost of EV's falls significantly. That’s a really interesting point. Where did you find that? I’d have thought pollution and oil prices would tie together somehow, but this stat suggests not. And to your point - what is the 92%? If by locking down most people in most nations you get an 8% shift, it would be reasonable to conclude that no amount of bike riding vs drivng or taking local holidays vs flying is going to nudge the environmental needle by any noticeable degree.
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Post by johnc on May 1, 2020 12:27:09 GMT
The 8% figure was on the BBC news last night and my immediate feeling was I thought it should have been 25/30%. 8% really isn't a massive shift for all the empty roads, factories and offices.
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Post by PG on May 1, 2020 13:21:36 GMT
...It’s an enviro wonk’s wet dream, Charging network, road pricing and mass surveillance in one fell swoop.... Certainly is. History shows that once a "temporary measure" is in place, it is very hard to ever get it removed or changed. It took 70 years to get the WW1 introduced licencing laws on pub opening hours changed for example. And the temporary 70 mph speed limit is still with us. So temporary tracking and restrictions will, I fear, be the same for some things for a long time.
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Post by PG on May 1, 2020 13:24:23 GMT
The 8% figure was on the BBC news last night and my immediate feeling was I thought it should have been 25/30%. 8% really isn't a massive shift for all the empty roads, factories and offices. I'd have thought it would be more too. Perhaps we have to assume that the reduction in emissions from general travel and industry / commerce are being partly offset by extra emissions from web servers, delivery vans and home power use?
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Post by garry on May 1, 2020 16:26:35 GMT
The 8% figure was on the BBC news last night and my immediate feeling was I thought it should have been 25/30%. 8% really isn't a massive shift for all the empty roads, factories and offices. I'd have thought it would be more too. Perhaps we have to assume that the reduction in emissions from general travel and industry / commerce are being partly offset by extra emissions from web servers, delivery vans and home power use? Could it be that consumption doesn’t correlate with pollution?Perhaps all the things that we’ve stopped doing are the least impactful? For example, do the emissions improvements in cars over the last decade mean that their ratio of consumption to pollution has changed? No idea on this, but it’s an interesting area. On the surface it suggests we can bring the world to an almost complete standstill and only marginally impact pollution.
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Post by PG on May 1, 2020 19:33:40 GMT
..On the surface it suggests we can bring the world to an almost complete standstill and only marginally impact pollution... Because basically the number of people are the core issue. Bg population = big pollution. Whether we move, stay still or hold our breath, the basic issue remains the same. Trouble is population seems to be the great unmentionable in the debate.
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Post by Sav on May 2, 2020 10:03:16 GMT
I suppose it depends who you listen to. The manufacturers have committed themselves to EV’s, to the extent that it will be tricky to back away. Pre-Covid, governments made a lot of noise about increasing EV infrastructure. But post-Covid, who still be interested? Governments will be so heavily indebted, plus any spending will be focused on stimulus for jobs and business. Therein lies the problem; unless governments artificially give subsidies on EV’s and expand charging points, the manufacturers may as well not bother. They need to sell things that people want to buy, and people don’t want EV’s at the moment. Manufacturers have experienced a huge R&D drain with EV’s, but the sales won’t be there for that investment to pay off. It’s all very well saying it will be beneficial in 2030-onwards, but I worry about the manufacturers right now.
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2020 10:07:02 GMT
There is a clean fuel being developed for aircraft, why not for cars too? Battery alone will not be able to power cars for the majority for a long time yet on cost grounds alone. Society seems to muddle along doing nothing positive and then goes completely batcrap for one solution. Weird and not in a good way.
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Post by Roadsterstu on May 3, 2020 10:48:32 GMT
I think we are rushing headlong down the EV route and I still cannot see how we wll generate all the required electricity without simply moving pollution elsewhere.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on May 3, 2020 13:52:34 GMT
I think we are rushing headlong down the EV route and I still cannot see how we wll generate all the required electricity without simply moving pollution elsewhere. Well, not really. As we move to more and more renewables electric vehicles offer a solution to what we do with the surplus power they generate when there is reduced demand. i.e at night.
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2020 16:01:06 GMT
I have heard it said that the electric car will store power during the night and discharge this during peak demand. Hang on though, that's when the cars are being driven. What then happens when having driven to your destination during peak demand you need to recharge your electric car?
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Post by LandieMark on May 3, 2020 17:18:25 GMT
A friend of mine alleges he has had some sort of smart box installed and the Leaf will supply power to his house while he isn't using it.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on May 3, 2020 17:29:28 GMT
I have heard it said that the electric car will store power during the night and discharge this during peak demand. Hang on though, that's when the cars are being driven. What then happens when having driven to your destination during peak demand you need to recharge your electric car? It’s about using a proportion of the fleet to smooth the peaks and troughs of demand. The modelling I’ve seen looks very promising.
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Post by Roadsterstu on May 4, 2020 6:07:54 GMT
Promising it might be but it isn't being used to market electric vehicles.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on May 4, 2020 7:54:39 GMT
Promising it might be but it isn't being used to market electric vehicles. And why would they- no one is going to buy an EV because of the technicalities of the infrastructure behind their operation? Petrol vehicles aren’t sold on the basis of oil refining industry behind them. They will buy them because they offer significant tax savings, are green and are convenient - just unplug and go.
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Post by Big Blue on May 4, 2020 9:17:04 GMT
..On the surface it suggests we can bring the world to an almost complete standstill and only marginally impact pollution... Because basically the number of people are the core issue. Bg population = big pollution. Whether we move, stay still or hold our breath, the basic issue remains the same. Trouble is population seems to be the great unmentionable in the debate. This. We all breathe out and many of us eat the animals that also breathe out. Also during this lockdown I assume most households are still using electricity, gas, coal, wood to keep the same number of people warm / cool whether they were in the office or at home, so fuel-use-footprint has just shifted from the office to the home. Which begs the question: how many people will claim a tax rebate for the additional fuel use or charge it to their expenses? As to electric cars vs ICE: cars will be both a personal transport and leisure / luxury item for a long time. The electric ones will carry out the former task, the ICE ones the latter. In fact given the total lack of use of the railways in our area that huge network of electrified permanent-way is just begging to be converted to some kind of charge-as-you-drive road so people can use a small personal metal box to get to London instead of a steel-plastic-aluminium germ container with windows.
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Post by Tim on May 5, 2020 11:29:03 GMT
The 8% figure was on the BBC news last night and my immediate feeling was I thought it should have been 25/30%. 8% really isn't a massive shift for all the empty roads, factories and offices. Remember the supply chain is clearly still running at near 100% (I can guarantee being able to buy bogroll for example) so non-car/school traffic must still be close to normal. In addition the seas are still full of ships and cargo aircraft are still flying. I hadn't realised that passenger aircraft carried much cargo but apparently they do so while passenger flights have reduced significantly there must have been an increase in pure cargo flights to make up.
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Post by garry on May 7, 2020 17:51:05 GMT
I know there’s a Harry’s Garage thread, but this video he’s put together on the electric car market is ace.
And for any cycling fans, that bike at the end is a specialised Levo turbo. A mate has one, it’s £5k of loveliness, I’m not much of an off road cyclist but that machine adds a level of fun that I’ve never come across before in an mtb.
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Post by PG on May 7, 2020 19:12:55 GMT
Very interesting video and soe good comments below it. Harry was basically comparing tailpipe + generation CO" with only tailpipe ICE. If he included "generation" for ICE (i.e extraction, refining, transport, storage etc) the comparison is more in favour of the EV than Harry makes out.
However, his key point still stands. EV's are really tinkering around the edges of the issue which is general human activity. Like his point that heating your house in the UK with gas or oil probably produces more CO2 in a year than your car tailpipe emissions.
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