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Post by racingteatray on Apr 14, 2020 16:55:11 GMT
Two things prompted that thought:
1. The OBR suggesting the economy could shrink by 35%. That's more than eye-catching. That's "rip your eyes out and grind them underfoot".
2. The Chancellor being asked just now whether it was still wise to be proceeding to a Brexit come what may at the end of this year, to which he insisted the answer was "yes, come what may".
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Post by michael on Apr 14, 2020 16:59:20 GMT
I doubt it. It might break the EU, though.
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Post by racingteatray on Apr 14, 2020 17:35:19 GMT
I doubt it. It might break the EU, though. It may well break the EU, but why do you doubt it will break Britain?
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Apr 14, 2020 18:02:59 GMT
I doubt it. It might break the EU, though. It may well break the EU, but why do you doubt it will break Britain? We have more political and financial flexibility than the EU. The 35% was a short term figure for June. For the year I’d expect it to be nearer -15%. Still a lot though.
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Post by michael on Apr 14, 2020 18:58:50 GMT
I doubt it. It might break the EU, though. It may well break the EU, but why do you doubt it will break Britain? A number of reasons. The first off is that we have government with a working majority with a good few years to run so it can make the difficult decisions to help people get through this. Second is we are outside the EU now so we can capitalise on the opportunity that presents in terms of Freeport’s and other regulatory flexibility that can be leveraged to encourage those industries looking to repatriate manufacturing from the Far East to base themselves here.
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Post by ChrisM on Apr 14, 2020 19:32:45 GMT
It wouldn't surprise me if the economy shrunk by 50% or more this year. The knock-on effects of businesses shutting up shop for a few weeks are huge
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Post by racingteatray on Apr 14, 2020 21:00:27 GMT
It may well break the EU, but why do you doubt it will break Britain? A number of reasons. The first off is that we have government with a working majority with a good few years to run so it can make the difficult decisions to help people get through this. Second is we are outside the EU now so we can capitalise on the opportunity that presents in terms of Freeport’s and other regulatory flexibility that can be leveraged to encourage those industries looking to repatriate manufacturing from the Far East to base themselves here. That seems more than a bit complacent to me. What are those difficult decisions? Things that if talked about by someone wearing a red rosette would be decried and bewailed as the end of the world as we know it, but when talked about by someone with a blue rosette are suddenly acceptable? It's lovely that the Tory party has suddenly found an entire boreal zone's worth of magic money trees to fund "Our NHS" (why can't it just be "the NHS" like it used to be?) and various short-term props to various parts of the business spectrum to deal with Covid-19, but when and how are we going to face the inevitable day of fiscal reckoning? As to your second reason, personally I am not remotely convinced that freeports in the UK represent anything other than ways for a small number of politically well-connected people to make a lot of money quickly (and I have excellent first-hand reasons for that view). The notion that they'll somehow be the salvation of a G8-sized economy is simply baffling. Plus the idea that Britain will be attractive to industries looking to repatriate manufacturing from the Far East only works if the EU (and thus also the single market and customs union) has actually collapsed, which is not a given. Absent that, why would someone want to put their manufacturing base in a country on the wrong side of a tariff wall and that hasn't got trade deals with anyone other than a handful of economically insignificant countries? So, I think we are just as much at risk as anywhere and possibly more so. I've always maintained that Brexit only works if the EU simultaneously collapsed thus nullifying the impact of cutting ourselves off but at the risk of our then being scape-goated for other failings. If Covid-19 causes the EU to collapse then that would be the mother and father of all get-out-of-jail free cards because the EU wouldn't be able to blame us for that. However, if it doesn't, then there's a risk that the EU comes through its near-death experience strengthened, more united, more protectionist and in no mood to compromise with bothersome former members, meaning we may find ourselves in an even worse situation than we were already risking. Much rides on what Boris does next. I think he has the political capital now to do almost whatever he likes, and that would include extending the transition period. As you say "we've left" so what's the harm in extending the status quo for the time being while we deal with a monstrous crisis, and then come back to what are very important negotiations when we can actually devote the necessary proper attention to them. To do otherwise feels like yet more pointless and blinkered ideological posturing.
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Post by michael on Apr 15, 2020 8:21:45 GMT
Much rides on what Boris does next. I think he has the political capital now to do almost whatever he likes... That would be the same argument I made about the working majority.
I disagree about Freeport's. I think they give deprived areas the opportunity to create higher value jobs than they otherwise would in addition to rebalancing the make-up of the economy in order to boost the manufacturing sector.
Some political posturing yesterday...
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Post by johnc on Apr 15, 2020 8:32:56 GMT
I think even if the EU does collapse in its current form, there will remain a Common Market because the free trade between the countries of mainland Europe is essential for their common well-being even if they reject the EU ideology of a unified Europe.
I don't know if it is just the people I have in my friends on Facebook but I am being bombarded by long diatribes against the Government by people in or closely associated to the NHS who are complaining about the lack of PPE and the Government's slow response and ineptitude in organising supplies. In particular there are tales of PPE being offered but Government not responding resulting in opportunities being lost. A lot of this might be Momentum type propaganda and fake news for Political purposes but someone I do know and trust, who supplies to the NHS has told me that their procurement policies are so complicated and steeped in bureaucracy that he isn't surprised there are supply issues.
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Post by Tim on Apr 15, 2020 8:34:22 GMT
I'm not sure Freeports will be so great for deprived areas - Government could've been doing that for decades but there just doesn't seem to be the will to spend much money outwith the South East and why would Central Government change tack on one particular thing only?
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Post by michael on Apr 15, 2020 8:42:21 GMT
I'm not sure Freeports will be so great for deprived areas - Government could've been doing that for decades but there just doesn't seem to be the will to spend much money outwith the South East and why would Central Government change tack on one particular thing only? Governments could have been doing lots of things for decades but we've only had this Government since December. I'd imagine that relying on votes exclusively from the South East isn't a guaranteed election winning strategy these days.
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Post by Tim on Apr 15, 2020 9:07:07 GMT
I'm not sure Freeports will be so great for deprived areas - Government could've been doing that for decades but there just doesn't seem to be the will to spend much money outwith the South East and why would Central Government change tack on one particular thing only? Governments could have been doing lots of things for decades but we've only had this Government since December. I'd imagine that relying on votes exclusively from the South East isn't a guaranteed election winning strategy these days. I quite agree and the proof will be in their actions far beyond things like freeports. What will is there to improve transport and infrastructure in 'The North' for example (I can't remember what was in the budget) to bring it into the late 20th century
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Post by racingteatray on Apr 15, 2020 10:05:47 GMT
Much rides on what Boris does next. I think he has the political capital now to do almost whatever he likes... That would be the same argument I made about the working majority.
I disagree about Freeport's. I think they give deprived areas the opportunity to create higher value jobs than they otherwise would in addition to rebalancing the make-up of the economy in order to boost the manufacturing sector.
It is the same argument, but in the same way that the Tory party's hitherto laudable resistance to "tax and spend" has been jettisoned, so other sacred cows of the Tory right ought to be slaughtered. That includes the bizarre fixation on the transition period ending at the end of this year. The war has effectively been won, so why die in the last battle? We shall see re freeports. I think they are largely a profitable economic irrelevance. At best they can have a localised effect which in my view won't move the needle at the necessary macroeconomic level.
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Post by Big Blue on Apr 15, 2020 10:26:16 GMT
.... but someone I do know and trust, who supplies to the NHS has told me that their procurement policies are so complicated and steeped in bureaucracy that he isn't surprised there are supply issues. Yes he's right. I worked once for the DoH in the '90s and refuse any NHS work at all as it's just a slow train to the death camps (apologies for a horrid analogy) of despair by all accounts. Trying to create some kind of internal market via the individual trusts is an unmitigated disaster at times like now as there will be trusts with far bigger muscle and financial power than others and the imposition of an NHS-wide procurement plan that may be worse than their own deals, or see others benefiting from the deals made by other trusts, will lead to a lot of refusal-of-deals. Back on topic: we're back to the argument about the power of the markets and financiers vs nations with armies and nuclear weapons. Russia has shown that there is a relationship between the two, with the latter bargaining chip being the winner in almost all scenarios. So I don't think that either the UK, the US or the EU will be broken irreparably by COVID-19 crisis but they will all have to make some fundamental changes to the way they operate (both individually and collectively) for at least a quarter of a century. Let's look at history and see that whilst various nations (UK, Germany, US, Japan) have been through massive slumps they remain by and large safe places to live work and build businesses. I left France out of that list as they remain, and will do for the forseeable century, a peasant-led nation happy with fresh daily bread, running water and unfettered sexual activity within marriage and without.
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Post by michael on Apr 15, 2020 10:33:20 GMT
It is the same argument, but in the same way that the Tory party's hitherto laudable resistance to "tax and spend" has been jettisoned, so other sacred cows of the Tory right ought to be slaughtered. That includes the bizarre fixation on the transition period ending at the end of this year. The war has effectively been won, so why die in the last battle? We shall see re freeports. I think they are largely a profitable economic irrelevance. At best they can have a localised effect which in my view won't move the needle at the necessary macroeconomic level. I see the local effect of freeports as being highly significant. It's a move to level up (sorry, couldn't help it) the country at large as it is skewed to an unhealthy degree towards the South East. If we can build wealth across the country it becomes a better country and a healthier country.
The argument for not extending the transition is that we wouldn't want to get involved in some bail-out package that clearly the even the Dutch don't want to foot the bill for.
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Post by Boxer6 on Apr 15, 2020 10:39:46 GMT
I think even if the EU does collapse in its current form, there will remain a Common Market because the free trade between the countries of mainland Europe is essential for their common well-being even if they reject the EU ideology of a unified Europe. I don't know if it is just the people I have in my friends on Facebook but I am being bombarded by long diatribes against the Government by people in or closely associated to the NHS who are complaining about the lack of PPE and the Government's slow response and ineptitude in organising supplies. In particular there are tales of PPE being offered but Government not responding resulting in opportunities being lost. A lot of this might be Momentum type propaganda and fake news for Political purposes but someone I do know and trust, who supplies to the NHS has told me that their procurement policies are so complicated and steeped in bureaucracy that he isn't surprised there are supply issues. Ordering ANYthing through our systems is often an exercise in pot luck, unless it's run-of-the-mill medication. For things like cleaning supplies for example, the order process is simple enough but, if the stores don't have a certain item we simply don't get it; no note from them about it being (e.g.) out of stock, expected date of re-stock and no automatic sending of the item when it does arrive!
The other side of the coin is, for some reason we can't send anything back, even if we didn't order it - they simply won't u[lify anything once delivered! I don't know if that's local only to the bit of Glasgow we're in, the city as a whole or merely because we're a lone outpost of mental health in a beleagured sytem. Whatever the reason, it's a major PITA.
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Post by Tim on Apr 15, 2020 10:46:55 GMT
I think even if the EU does collapse in its current form, there will remain a Common Market because the free trade between the countries of mainland Europe is essential for their common well-being even if they reject the EU ideology of a unified Europe. I don't know if it is just the people I have in my friends on Facebook but I am being bombarded by long diatribes against the Government by people in or closely associated to the NHS who are complaining about the lack of PPE and the Government's slow response and ineptitude in organising supplies. In particular there are tales of PPE being offered but Government not responding resulting in opportunities being lost. A lot of this might be Momentum type propaganda and fake news for Political purposes but someone I do know and trust, who supplies to the NHS has told me that their procurement policies are so complicated and steeped in bureaucracy that he isn't surprised there are supply issues. Ordering ANYthing through our systems is often an exercise in pot luck, unless it's run-of-the-mill medication. For things like cleaning supplies for example, the order process is simple enough but, if the stores don't have a certain item we simply don't get it; no note from them about it being (e.g.) out of stock, expected date of re-stock and no automatic sending of the item when it does arrive!
The other side of the coin is, for some reason we can't send anything back, even if we didn't order it - they simply won't u[lify anything once delivered! I don't know if that's local only to the bit of Glasgow we're in, the city as a whole or merely because we're a lone outpost of mental health in a beleagured sytem. Whatever the reason, it's a major PITA.
Mrs Tim used to get hugely annoyed with NHS Tayside - they had a 'no spending' policy due to previous overspends so whenever she was ordering things she found that the previous orders had usually not been paid. This despite the fact her network was directly funded by the Scottish Government and the cash was only held by NHS Tayside. Sadly it went into their normal system and every time she had to fight (and waste a lot of time) to get things paid!
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Post by PG on Apr 15, 2020 11:25:32 GMT
....I don't know if it is just the people I have in my friends on Facebook but I am being bombarded by long diatribes against the Government by people in or closely associated to the NHS who are complaining about the lack of PPE and the Government's slow response and ineptitude in organising supplies. In particular there are tales of PPE being offered but Government not responding resulting in opportunities being lost. A lot of this might be Momentum type propaganda and fake news for Political purposes but someone I do know and trust, who supplies to the NHS has told me that their procurement policies are so complicated and steeped in bureaucracy that he isn't surprised there are supply issues.The NHS is a classic case of lions led by donkeys. People at the sharp end at all levels (excluding some consultants in my mind) work damn hard. But they are let down totally by the bureaucratic and managerial nightmare that is everything else. Although the front line will be even more of a sacred cow than before after this virus, I hope that does not exclude some serious root and branch reform of the DoH and the NHS management.
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Post by LandieMark on Apr 15, 2020 11:37:59 GMT
It's not just the NHS though - the whole world is struggling for PPE.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Apr 15, 2020 12:06:46 GMT
I did read somewhere that the NHS requires 700 million pieces of PPE instead of its normal 70 million immediately. Given that every other country requires 10x it’s normal requirements I can see where the procurement problems are.
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Post by racingteatray on Apr 15, 2020 12:11:01 GMT
It is the same argument, but in the same way that the Tory party's hitherto laudable resistance to "tax and spend" has been jettisoned, so other sacred cows of the Tory right ought to be slaughtered. That includes the bizarre fixation on the transition period ending at the end of this year. The war has effectively been won, so why die in the last battle? We shall see re freeports. I think they are largely a profitable economic irrelevance. At best they can have a localised effect which in my view won't move the needle at the necessary macroeconomic level. I see the local effect of freeports as being highly significant. It's a move to level up (sorry, couldn't help it) the country at large as it is skewed to an unhealthy degree towards the South East. If we can build wealth across the country it becomes a better country and a healthier country.
The argument for not extending the transition is that we wouldn't want to get involved in some bail-out package that clearly the even the Dutch don't want to foot the bill for.
Well we'll have to agree to differ on freeports. www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/trade-freeports-free-zoneswww.wired.co.uk/article/brexit-freeportsAs regards the transition and bail-outs, that's a whopper of a straw-man. Plus what do you mean "even the Dutch"? The Dutch have always been fiscal hawks when it comes to bail-outs.
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Post by Sav on Apr 15, 2020 21:51:51 GMT
Countries such as Italy and Spain were weak before the pandemic. Germany wasn't doing great, with its manufacturing sector in recession. It will be interesting to see what the ECB does, it can't really afford to annoy Germany and France. But the southern countries will need huge bailouts and stimulus. Its become so entrenched, the EU has become too big to fail, but the countries most affected will lack the freedom to take the decisions needed.
I think a lot of things will go back to basics after the pandemic. And so does the EU. My gripe is about cars, naturally, but they need to stop virtue-signalling and fining car makers for failing to comply with their silly fleet average. Europe's manufacturers are going to have a hard time surviving, let alone developing and selling technology that has no real public demand.
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Post by johnc on Apr 16, 2020 6:57:15 GMT
My gripe with Freeports is the red tape. Can you imagine the paperwork needed to prove that goods that came in to the Freeport were then processed in some way and then exported again and didn't in some way find their way into the rest of the UK. I also struggle to think of many businesses who solely import, process and then export and apart from them, whoever they are, there are few benefits to anyone else.
My Aunt used to work in a freight forwarding business and she remembers the pre and post EU days. In her opinion we no longer have the infrastructure to be able to carry out all the Customs checks needed to have goods imported and released within a reasonable time and in her words "the idiots who decided on this obviously never had to deal with importing and exporting before the EU". Time will tell if she is right.
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Post by garry on Apr 16, 2020 8:00:19 GMT
I think the only thing we can be confident on is that it will be tough. We're seeing a massive global disruption that will result in winners and losers at every level. The winners will be those better placed to address the new world or be able to quickly adapt to it. I'd place a bet on the UK being much more capable of adapting than the EU - there's a political window because of our recent election that means Boris has a couple of years to get things done that will hopefully deliver benefit before the next election and brexit gives more freedom. The EU is going to have to work out if/how it bails out two countries that entered this crisis in very bad shape and exit it almost bankrupt.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Apr 16, 2020 9:27:15 GMT
My gripe with Freeports is the red tape. Can you imagine the paperwork needed to prove that goods that came in to the Freeport were then processed in some way and then exported again and didn't in some way find their way into the rest of the UK. I also struggle to think of many businesses who solely import, process and then export and apart from them, whoever they are, there are few benefits to anyone else. My Aunt used to work in a freight forwarding business and she remembers the pre and post EU days. In her opinion we no longer have the infrastructure to be able to carry out all the Customs checks needed to have goods imported and released within a reasonable time and in her words "the idiots who decided on this obviously never had to deal with importing and exporting before the EU". Time will tell if she is right. Freeports could certainly help the chemical industry and anyone who processes metals and raw materials from abroad. Teesside would see it as a boon. I'm not sure when your aunt worked in import export but we import raw materials from China, Romania and Italy and after manufacture our biggest markets are Malaysia, Brazil and the US. It's 2020 not 1990 and it's all very uncomplicated and happens very smoothly, using the electronic systems. In fact we find it's only marginally more complicated than trading within the EU.
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Post by LandieMark on Apr 16, 2020 10:34:22 GMT
A friend of mine imports lots of timber flooring and raw timber from China. He is eagerly anticipating a freeport on Teesside as it would make his life a lot simpler.
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Post by racingteatray on Apr 16, 2020 13:39:08 GMT
I'm not sure when your aunt worked in import export but we import raw materials from China, Romania and Italy and after manufacture our biggest markets are Malaysia, Brazil and the US. It's 2020 not 1990 and it's all very uncomplicated and happens very smoothly, using the electronic systems. In fact we find it's only marginally more complicated than trading within the EU. That's the status quo until the end of the transition period only. And much of that smoothness comes from the fact that such trade is conducted on the basis of the existing trade agreements and/or practices negotiated and/or developed by the EU with all those non-EU countries, and which as a member state of the EU we benefited from. If we leave without a deal that addresses all of the above, then what happens in terms of red tape?
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Post by racingteatray on Apr 16, 2020 13:45:09 GMT
I think the only thing we can be confident on is that it will be tough. We're seeing a massive global disruption that will result in winners and losers at every level. The winners will be those better placed to address the new world or be able to quickly adapt to it. I'd place a bet on the UK being much more capable of adapting than the EU - there's a political window because of our recent election that means Boris has a couple of years to get things done that will hopefully deliver benefit before the next election and brexit gives more freedom. The EU is going to have to work out if/how it bails out two countries that entered this crisis in very bad shape and exit it almost bankrupt. Not a bet I'd place. We've no experience of going it alone without the EU safety blanket and the international heft it gave us (and which we always liked to pretend was all our own). The entire discussion at the moment within the EU is how to provide a bail-out for those countries which need it that only deals with the current financial woes and doesn't involve underwriting past mismanagement. That's what the Germans and Dutch are rightly concerned about. The Italian government led by Conte is trying to agree something along those lines, but is being continually undermined by the anti-EU populists like Salvini, who like nationalists in all EU countries, have zero interest in the EU reaching any successful agreement as it doesn't serve their domestic political purposes.
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Post by michael on Apr 16, 2020 13:56:57 GMT
The German and Dutch economy benefit enormously from the Euro unlike Italy. The Germans and Dutch should get used to sending more money to the rest of Europe.
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Post by racingteatray on Apr 16, 2020 14:05:55 GMT
The German and Dutch economy benefit enormously from the Euro unlike Italy. The Germans and Dutch should get used to sending more money to the rest of Europe. You sound like Salvini.
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