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Post by johnc on Nov 19, 2018 9:19:37 GMT
I read a comment at the weekend that made a bit of sense: if the UK leaves the EU with no deal we can apply any import tariff's we like which puts the other country(ies) a bit on the back foot if we decide not to impose a tariff on imports from the EU. We don't have World Trade Agreements in place in any case so there is bound to be a period of transition.
However there is always the danger that the EU might smack a large tariff on UK exports to the EU which then starts a USA v China tit for tat unless someone with some brains on both sides gets in early on to stop such madness.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Nov 19, 2018 9:46:31 GMT
I read a comment at the weekend that made a bit of sense: if the UK leaves the EU with no deal we can apply any import tariff's we like which puts the other country(ies) a bit on the back foot if we decide not to impose a tariff on imports from the EU. We don't have World Trade Agreements in place in any case so there is bound to be a period of transition.
However there is always the danger that the EU might smack a large tariff on UK exports to the EU which then starts a USA v China tit for tat unless someone with some brains on both sides gets in early on to stop such madness. If the EU put large tariffs on our exports the the UK Government would have to explain to the EU that due to the financially parlous state our economy would then be placed in we'd have to temporarily postpone EU budget payments and re-direct that money to support our exporters.
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Post by scouse on Nov 19, 2018 10:13:55 GMT
We run a £42 billion trade deficit on goods alone with the EU. Would other EU nations allow the federalist lunatics in Brussels to cook their golden eggs?
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Post by Tim on Nov 19, 2018 10:20:02 GMT
We run a £42 billion trade deficit on goods alone with the EU. Would other EU nations allow the federalist lunatics in Brussels to cook their golden eggs?
It depends who on their side benefits the most from our deficit. If it was, say, Greece then the wider EU wouldn't give a shit.
I imagine, though, its Germany.
I think part of the problem we've had on this side of the water is that the negotiations have been conducted in a sort of 'Don't you know who we are?' kind of way. We're dealing with a Bloc representing 500 million people while we are only 65 or 70 million and we buy a lot more from them than they do from us.
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Post by Big Blue on Nov 19, 2018 10:20:24 GMT
From the Q&A thing that Michael very nicely pasted I note only one course of events that is certain: the entire document is a matter of interpretation and there will be some huge fees earned in the legal profession.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2018 11:05:34 GMT
Thanks Michael, I will have to find the rebuttal to make a proper opinion. I think Germany and France account for most of the trade deficit.
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Post by PG on Nov 19, 2018 13:48:28 GMT
From the Q&A thing that Michael very nicely pasted I note only one course of events that is certain: the entire document is a matter of interpretation and there will be some huge fees earned in the legal profession. Indeed. Like all EU agreements or declarations, this whole agreement seems to be able to be read by all sides in the way they want to read or present it. After all, for most stuff that is the only way that all 27 states have been able to present stuff as acceptable to their home audience. Not only have the Mrs May and the EU different ways of presenting it, but so do Ireland and UK v the backstop and the border. I now read this morning that Spain are now saying that a lot of the agreement obviously does not apply to Gibraltar and they have a veto over that. And I'm sure there will be others. I also note that a lot of the Downing Street replies say that "this only applies in the implementation period". Well that might be all well and good, but what it does mean is that the first interpretation is correct, just that it is time limited. Which of course means that the EU will just cut and paste the words into the first draft of any proposed trade agreement. I think in the end, this will come down to a binary choice. Leave with no deal, or stay in the customs union indefinitely. I think Labour will push for the latter. So if no deal is an impossible concept to Parliament - as it seems to be - then I think that a lot of people in Parliament will be desperate to find some way to keep the UK in the customs union indefinitely. However, we will then see Jeremy Corbyn attempting to dance on the head of a pin. As he knows that the EU / customs union state aid provisions are totally at odds with his industrial and political aspirations. So if that happens, perhaps the Labour party will also split assunder too....
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Post by ChrisM on Nov 19, 2018 13:50:53 GMT
...... tit for tat unless someone with some brains on both sides gets in early on to stop such madness.
And that is surely at the heart of the matter. Politicians are too keen to stick to a party line, or want to make a personal point rather than thinking of the "common good" or what is right and fair
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Post by Tim on Nov 19, 2018 14:10:44 GMT
So if that happens, perhaps the Labour party will also split assunder too....
That could be funny to watch, on the back of the ongoing Brexit disaster.
However isn't this whole fiasco caused by the simple fact that the Tories didn't split asunder? They've had 2 opposed wings of the party for at least 30 years now and I think the anti-EU mob should've just pissed off to join UKIP/BNP/whoever years ago. Either that or the pro-EU mob should've gone somewhere else.
More than ever I think they're 2 parties under a common banner. Labour have become demonstrably the same since Corbyn came to power.
Perhaps Brexit will be the catalyst that finally gets us a decent Centrist political party that we could actually consider voting for......
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Post by michael on Nov 19, 2018 14:15:26 GMT
So if that happens, perhaps the Labour party will also split assunder too.... Rumour has it such plans are closer to fruition than a lot of people think. It's said Corbyn will have the shock of his life when they play their cards.
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Post by scouse on Nov 19, 2018 14:23:57 GMT
Rumour has it such plans are closer to fruition than a lot of people think. It's said Corbyn will have the shock of his life when they play their cards. One can but hope. He's a hateful, anti-British, anti-Western, lying, anti semite bastard.* *only the bastard bit is untrue.
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Post by racingteatray on Nov 19, 2018 16:11:49 GMT
It was a fucking stupid idea in the first place.
It's only beyond me how (a) it took so many people so long to realise that and (b) that so many people still refuse to admit it.
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Post by Tim on Nov 19, 2018 16:21:43 GMT
Don't sit on the fence Racing
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2018 17:34:21 GMT
You are entitled to your opinion but then, so are we all.
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Post by racingteatray on Nov 19, 2018 18:04:25 GMT
Don't sit on the fence Racing I tried but it was deeply uncomfortable.
Besides, I'm a patriotic Brit watching my country eff things up spectacularly in pursuit of a goal that regrettably simply doesn't work in the real world. Why wouldn't I call it exactly the way I see it?
The Brexit side of the argument has had nearly 2.5 yrs to make a sensible case for Brexit and they've failed. That they've failed doesn't really surprise me. That they made so little effort to make a sensible case has surprised me.
It's arm-gnawingly frustrating.
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Post by racingteatray on Nov 19, 2018 18:11:13 GMT
I read a comment at the weekend that made a bit of sense: if the UK leaves the EU with no deal we can apply any import tariff's we like which puts the other country(ies) a bit on the back foot if we decide not to impose a tariff on imports from the EU. We don't have World Trade Agreements in place in any case so there is bound to be a period of transition.
However there is always the danger that the EU might smack a large tariff on UK exports to the EU which then starts a USA v China tit for tat unless someone with some brains on both sides gets in early on to stop such madness. As regards the WTO Rules, this piece is worth a read:
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-08-09/wto-rules-are-no-panacea-for-the-pain-of-brexit
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Post by Roadrunner on Nov 19, 2018 18:11:39 GMT
Don't sit on the fence Racing I tried but it was deeply uncomfortable.
Besides, I'm a patriotic Brit watching my country eff things up spectacularly in pursuit of a goal that regrettably simply doesn't work in the real world. Why wouldn't I call it exactly the way I see it?
The Brexit side of the argument has had nearly 2.5 yrs to make a sensible case for Brexit and they've failed. That they've failed doesn't really surprise me. That they made so little effort to make a sensible case has surprised me.
It's arm-gnawingly frustrating.
I agree with all of that. My only hope is for the much-rumoured middle-way of level headed politicians to form their coalition and rescue us from Tory disarray and Labour / Union 1970s class war bollocks. They need to get on with it PDQ.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2018 20:16:11 GMT
It bugs me that 'our' team has allowed the eu to walk all over them and has been little more than a lap dog. Considering the issues that the eu face outside of Brexit, I would have thought they would see sense but, I suppose that is a bit much for what are self serving political animals at the end of the day.
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Post by Big Blue on Nov 20, 2018 10:13:45 GMT
It was a fucking stupid idea in the first place. It's only beyond me how (a) it took so many people so long to realise that and (b) that so many people still refuse to admit it. This is true on all counts. The major failure was that the "Leave" faction had NO IDEA what they would need to do in the event of a win. The "Remain" faction knew that they could just carry on as was but this was used against them using the facts of what it means to be a member of the EU. The "Leave" team made no realistic proposals about what would happen in the post-EU world aside from pointing out in nauseating detail that the sums of money paid to the EU would stop being paid to the EU and remain in the UK, omitting the fact that the majority of the funds generated to pay the EU fees were generated by trade with the...er...EU. That trade is now at risk, and both sides know that is a huge issue so are trying to extend the trade agreements as long as possible until someone somewhere has agreed some trade terms with the UK to allow it to make enough money to not become a banana republic - and we don't even grow bananas, straight or otherwise. The EU does do lots of things "wrong" but a lot of things "right" as well, just like any other administration (maybe not Trump's or N Korea). Successive UK governments have been jointly despised and loved in equal measure - what the fuck were people expecting from UK governments in this future outside the EU that would suddenly make them the brilliant machines of administration we all want them to be? The words "pie" and "sky" should have featured far larger in the campaigning. All that said we need to get on with it. I want to know where all these hard-brexiteers are, with all their support, driving deals with the EU and the ROTW from the position of strength that the UK is apparently always in. In simple terms the current deal reflects the UK's position in terms of Brexit strategy - it's a shit strategy so we get a shit deal. The hope should be that as time progresses other deals can be done and the whole relationship with the EU evolves into a trading agreement, as it always was supposed to be, and the respective economies and societies just get on with life. I will be long retired by then (9 years and 5 months and 24 days - not that I'm counting). Possibly even dead.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Nov 20, 2018 11:16:25 GMT
Let's face it Remain fought a shit campaign, despite having 95% of government and broadcast media behind it. Perhaps it just goes to confirm what Trump's victory in the US showed; people don't trust governments and media anymore. Chuck in a dislike of a perceived London-centric liberal elite and are we surprised the vote was lost?
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Post by PetrolEd on Nov 20, 2018 13:03:07 GMT
Nope, not surprised as we're (the uk) generally a xenophobic bunch but I was still gobsmacked at the result. The EU is a crock and as British folk we don't like the thought of big government. If you ask 90% of people they would probably say they are British and not European. We are islanders and a very different bread to the mainlanders from across the channel.
Of course we wouldn't have had these problems a few hundred years ago as we would have sent a bunch of tooled up folk to Northern France and kicked their garlic munching, sausage loving, pasta stuffing, tapas gorging arses. Maybe leavers thought we could have done the same now?
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Post by michael on Nov 20, 2018 13:08:44 GMT
All that said we need to get on with it. This is it, we are where we are.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2018 13:25:42 GMT
"Of course we wouldn't have had these problems a few hundred years ago as we would have sent a bunch of tooled up folk to Northern France and kicked their garlic munching, sausage loving, pasta stuffing, tapas gorging arses. Maybe leavers thought we could have done the same now"?
Not really, eating that much always gives me gas and it is probably the same for most people. As for kicking anything, it takes so much effort, but the march of the eu towards federalisation was the last straw. If the eu had shown ANY desire to sort itself out I would have voted remain but they have their heads in the sand as much as anyone. OUR way or the highway. So much waste and wasted opportunity.
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Post by PetrolEd on Nov 20, 2018 13:56:14 GMT
I think that's a valid reason to have voted leave and I was close myself when the vote came but it was the economic fragility of the country at the time, along with a number of issues that weren't addressed that stopped me from voting leave.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Nov 20, 2018 14:13:10 GMT
I think that's a valid reason to have voted leave and I was close myself when the vote came but it was the economic fragility of the country at the time, along with a number of issues that weren't addressed that stopped me from voting leave. I've always considered myself British (not English) and European and always generally supported the European Project, albeit with some caveats over currency and federalism. I didn't really listen to much of the arguments during the referendum campaign - I was always going to vote Remain, despite a few niggling doubts. For me it was akin to growing up in a walled garden - I knew there was another world outside and that the gates were open if I wanted to leave so I was quite happy. Now I see that the gates weren't really open and there are guards wanting to keep me in, so now my walled paradise feels more and more like a prison. If there was another referendum (and without getting into the whole anti-democratic feelings that would engender within me), I'd probably vote Leave this time. It's going to hurt sooner or later so may as well get it over with.
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Post by PetrolEd on Nov 20, 2018 15:11:33 GMT
Don't think I could go as far as cutting my nose off but I do see the backlash coming. The EU don't understand the bloody mindedness of your typical Brit, that the more we get poked, the more we come out fighting. So where I would see another vote being welcome maybe the result wouldn't be the turnaround that I'd welcome. I'd also like to know how many of the electorate would actually turn out this time.
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Post by michael on Nov 20, 2018 15:30:34 GMT
So where I would see another vote being welcome maybe the result wouldn't be the turnaround that I'd welcome. I'd also like to know how many of the electorate would actually turn out this time. For similar reasons as Bob I'm against another vote as it's moving quite a way from democracy as we know it. Even so, another vote wouldn't be able to return things to what they were. We had veto's, a rebate and opt-outs. Another vote would be a very different question which would be broadly a choice between no deal vs. even greater European integration. It is with that in mind I think leave would achieve a landslide as it is overwhelmingly not what people want. Throw in the antics of the EU during the negotiations, ingrained corruption such as the ascent of Martin Selymayr and talk of a European army and you'd struggle to convince anyone outside of London this is where the country needs to be. Chuck in a few clips of Junker saying the British press has too much freedom and you'll have the entirety of the media campaigning for leave.
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Post by Alex on Nov 20, 2018 16:40:34 GMT
So where I would see another vote being welcome maybe the result wouldn't be the turnaround that I'd welcome. I'd also like to know how many of the electorate would actually turn out this time. For similar reasons as Bob I'm against another vote as it's moving quite a way from democracy as we know it. Even so, another vote wouldn't be able to return things to what they were. We had veto's, a rebate and opt-outs. Another vote would be a very different question which would be broadly a choice between no deal vs. even greater European integration. It is with that in mind I think leave would achieve a landslide as it is overwhelmingly not what people want. Throw in the antics of the EU during the negotiations, ingrained corruption such as the ascent of Martin Selymayr and talk of a European army and you'd struggle to convince anyone outside of London this is where the country needs to be. Chuck in a few clips of Junker saying the British press has too much freedom and you'll have the entirety of the media campaigning for leave. A bigger problem is that another vote, even if remain won by 52/48, would still leave us with an incredibly divided nation and a great number of EU nationals who want to leave our shores due to the racist and xenophobic rhetoric coming from our government with even our PM weighing in with the deeply offensive accusation that those who have legally come over from the EU were queue jumpers. (Why, if she was so upset that software engineers from Dheli were being blocked from working here by all the EU migrants, she didn’t do something about it in all her years as Home Secretary is anyone’s guess). We’d also still be left with a government full of dimwits such as David Davis, Rees Mogg and that shrewd water cannon invester Boris. So the brutal reality is that we’ve come too far and there’s no way many Europeans will ever look at us the same way again. I can only imagine that trying to reverse article 50 would see us utterly humiliated and the laughing stock of the world (as if we’re not already). The damage is done, we’ve deliberately made ourselves poorer and pissed off our neighbours for little or no reward, we’ve made our bed and now we have to lie in it. I just hope that when my children hit the job market in 10 years we’ll have recovered.
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Post by Tim on Nov 20, 2018 16:46:35 GMT
For similar reasons as Bob I'm against another vote as it's moving quite a way from democracy as we know it. Even so, another vote wouldn't be able to return things to what they were. We had veto's, a rebate and opt-outs. Another vote would be a very different question which would be broadly a choice between no deal vs. even greater European integration. It is with that in mind I think leave would achieve a landslide as it is overwhelmingly not what people want. Throw in the antics of the EU during the negotiations, ingrained corruption such as the ascent of Martin Selymayr and talk of a European army and you'd struggle to convince anyone outside of London this is where the country needs to be. Chuck in a few clips of Junker saying the British press has too much freedom and you'll have the entirety of the media campaigning for leave. A bigger problem is that another vote, even if remain won by 52/48, would still leave us with an incredibly divided nation and a great number of EU nationals who want to leave our shores due to the racist and xenophobic rhetoric coming from our government with even our PM weighing in with the deeply offensive accusation that those who have legally come over from the EU were queue jumpers. (Why, if she was so upset that software engineers from Dheli were being blocked from working here by all the EU migrants, she didn’t do something about it in all her years as Home Secretary is anyone’s guess). We’d also still be left with a government full of dimwits such as David Davis, Rees Mogg and that shrewd water cannon invester Boris. So the brutal reality is that we’ve come too far and there’s no way many Europeans will ever look at us the same way again. I can only imagine that trying to reverse article 50 would see us utterly humiliated and the laughing stock of the world (as if we’re not already). The damage is done, we’ve deliberately made ourselves poorer and pissed off our neighbours for little or no reward, we’ve made our bed and now we have to lie in it. I just hope that when my children hit the job market in 10 years we’ll have recovered.
I agree with all of this. Some of the loudest mouthed Brexiteers appear to be living in the past where Johnny Foreigner will be cowed by the mighty Empire. They still don't seem to understand the world has changed in the last 80 years.
While I agree Corbyn wants to take us back to the 1970s, with poor labour relations and general misery, people like Rees-Mogg and BoJo want to take us back even further. Boris comes across as a 'send-a-gunboat' 1920s type and I think Rees Mogg would like to remove the vote from women and people who don't own at least 10,000 acres of land and/or have a title.
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Post by Big Blue on Nov 20, 2018 22:21:40 GMT
Yes: Really-Smug is a cunt of the highest order. Hanging by the scrotum is too good for him. He’s a leading Brexiteer but where’s his push for policies and ideas that will advance his view of Enid Blyton’s Great Britain and her Empire?
Today’s he’s anti-May which is all well and good but what’s his alternative? Not him: he’s a cunt as I said; Boris already fell at the first when Gove took the piss out of him from there on in NOBODY comes to mind from the Leave side of the party. Allied to the fact that there is no coherent set of aims, strategies and policies for some kind of harder exit and we’re staying “as-is”.
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