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Post by PG on Dec 13, 2017 18:41:39 GMT
Interesting to read people’s perspectives on it. I’ve put $500 into multiple currencies over a period of 3 weeks. This afternoon, it was worth $1240. I’m not planning on putting anymore into it until I get a better idea of where it’s going. The thing I don’t like about it is that I’m buying something that has no assets. Land, shares etc can all be valued as they have, well, value. Crypto currency has no asset so to speak, but is worth what people are willing to pay for it and at the moment, people are willing to pay more than I’ve put in, so that’s good for me.... Either way, if I was to make $50 on it, I’d still have done better than at the bank! I had a client years ago who did extremely well out of investing in small companies but he had a rule which he stuck to religiously and it has always stuck with me: when the value of your investment doubles, take out your original stake and you can't lose anything. I used to use a broker who got me into some smaller companies. He always said to follow the "when it doubles sell half" rule and I did and still do (if anything ever does double...). Smaller company investing worked a few times, but then I got burnt a couple of times as well. So overall, the net is a bit better then for blue chips, but the ups and downs can be worrying. Unless you are really lucky or are willing to spend hours on research and market watching.
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Post by PG on Dec 13, 2017 18:49:06 GMT
On Friday I asked our Chief Investment Officer what he thought of it, given that all currencies were 'made up' at some point in their life, and his view is that since they are all linked in some way to gold then they have legitimacy but Bitcoin isn't and doesn't so at some point it will come crashing down. My brother in law did somee bitcoin mining a couple of years ago and broke even (having spent several £000s on super fancy PCs). He tried to explain it to me then but I still don't understand it. How old is your chief investment officer? Everybody came off the gold standard eons ago! I know what he means in that a currency is backed by a sovereign state (well apart from the Euro) and is a claim on the wealth of that sovereign state. That is the elephant in the room of Quantitative Easing. Economic theory is that if you issue billions of units of a currency all it does is devalue the currency as each unit now has less claim on the overall wealth of the issuing country. This time, QE has not caused retail price inflation, but has caused huge asset inflation instead. And I'm not sure that is sustainable in the long run. BitCoin is not a sovereign currency - it is backed by nothing. If anybody is interested in bitcoin, I have some tulip bulbs that you might also be interested in.
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Post by johnc on Dec 14, 2017 8:22:12 GMT
I had a client years ago who did extremely well out of investing in small companies but he had a rule which he stuck to religiously and it has always stuck with me: when the value of your investment doubles, take out your original stake and you can't lose anything. I used to use a broker who got me into some smaller companies. He always said to follow the "when it doubles sell half" rule and I did and still do (if anything ever does double...). Smaller company investing worked a few times, but then I got burnt a couple of times as well. So overall, the net is a bit better then for blue chips, but the ups and downs can be worrying. Unless you are really lucky or are willing to spend hours on research and market watching. I think my client's success came from his willingness to get out quickly when things started to go wrong - he also did lots of research and seemed to have a sixth sense about when the stock was going to fall. He has moved into less risky things now but still dabbles. I made good gains on the likes of Dialight, Indivior and NCC on his recommendations - However when you can only afford to invest/lose relatively small amounts, big percentage gains still don't make you rich!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2017 9:35:42 GMT
I watched an interesting video where it was claimed that the video gambling machines in the Las Vegas casinos were being used to mine Bitcoin. I don't pretend to understand how it works but Vegas has thousands of high powered computers running 24/7 so it made sense in that respect. Vegas has always had connections with the Mob and other undesirables, plus Buffet says only invest in what you understand. So for those reasons I am out. As to the "when an asset doubles, sell half" strategy. I employ a similar strategy but place a trailing stop-loss which automatically sells if an asset price falls below a set value. I use different values for different risk assets but usually in the range 10-20% of peak value. That way I never lose more than 20% on a single position. I currently have one position in my portfolio that is up 489%.
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Post by Big Blue on Dec 14, 2017 10:12:35 GMT
BitCoin is not a sovereign currency - it is backed by nothing. If anybody is interested in bitcoin, I have some tulip bulbs that you might also be interested in. Were they mistaken for lilies? (random reference to the lily market in Holland as told in the song "New Amsterdam" by Elvis Costello.)
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2017 10:24:19 GMT
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Post by michael on Dec 14, 2017 10:34:57 GMT
I knew of the tulip bulb mania. On a related horticultural note I bought one hundred box hedge plants to bring on to create a knot garden but having since realised a five year old box plant is worth upwards £50 if appropriately cut then I potentially have an investment to rival bitcoin - including risk of blight.
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Post by Big Blue on Dec 14, 2017 11:04:27 GMT
Yes I did. The Tulips and Lilies thing is a lyric and refers to the same phenomenon, whereby the lily was the poor cousin hence mistaking a tulip for a lily means you didn't know how good a thing you had.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2017 11:26:52 GMT
Thought as much, you being a man of wealth and taste, eh?
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Post by michael on Dec 14, 2017 14:40:21 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2017 15:08:26 GMT
'There may be trouble ahead...'
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Post by michael on Dec 14, 2017 15:10:45 GMT
I'm feeling more confident about selling my box hedge, it is literally a hedge fund.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2017 15:24:13 GMT
Ouch, looks like the 80's again.
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Post by PG on Dec 14, 2017 17:16:33 GMT
I just know that when the inevitable Bitcoin crash comes (or even a moderate fall will do it if people are gearing up that much to buy in), there will be people asking why the "government didn't do something" to save them. Calls for bail outs and mis-selling issues will abound.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2017 18:05:04 GMT
I may be in a Scrooge and humbug mood but if you take the risk, you get for rewards, both ways. If the BOE/Gov'mint were to give a penny I would be properly po'd.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 15, 2017 9:12:10 GMT
They won't. People are buying, rather than being 'sold.'
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Post by Tim on Dec 15, 2017 13:46:10 GMT
On Friday I asked our Chief Investment Officer what he thought of it, given that all currencies were 'made up' at some point in their life, and his view is that since they are all linked in some way to gold then they have legitimacy but Bitcoin isn't and doesn't so at some point it will come crashing down. My brother in law did somee bitcoin mining a couple of years ago and broke even (having spent several £000s on super fancy PCs). He tried to explain it to me then but I still don't understand it. How old is your chief investment officer? Everybody came off the gold standard eons ago! I know what he means in that a currency is backed by a sovereign state (well apart from the Euro) and is a claim on the wealth of that sovereign state.
He's 54. I think he had said that in response to my comment that at some point in the beginning all currencies were just made up.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2017 5:43:21 GMT
Bitcoin down over 30%, overnight.........
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Post by rodge on Dec 23, 2017 12:16:25 GMT
Bitcoin down over 30%, overnight......... Yeah there was a big drop yesterday, but it’s currently up 88% for the month, so not too shabby.
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Post by Big Blue on Jan 3, 2018 11:44:49 GMT
I currently have a balanced portfolio, whereas at one point last summer I had a decidedly unbalanced one and fortunately I made a load on the unbalanced holding; then saw it dropping so got out with a huge percentage gain and balanced out my portfolio. What "balanced portfolio" means is that some of your holdings make huge gains in a week whilst some make equivalent losses just to annoy the fuck out of you.
Amusingly I hold shares in a company that reformulates sildenafil, the main constituent of a well know erectile disfunction drug. So I'm waiting for that to rise up......
I'll get me coat.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Jan 3, 2018 11:48:02 GMT
I currently have a balanced portfolio, whereas at one point last summer I had a decidedly unbalanced one and fortunately I made a load on the unbalanced holding; then saw it dropping so got out with a huge percentage gain and balanced out my portfolio. What "balanced portfolio" means is that some of your holdings make huge gains in a week whilst some make equivalent losses just to annoy the fuck out of you. Amusingly I hold shares in a company that reformulates sildenafil, the main constituent of a well know erectile disfunction drug. So I'm waiting for that to rise up...... I'll get me coat. Probably just one for the hardened investor that.
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Post by Stuntman on Jan 4, 2018 21:51:23 GMT
Hopefully you are going long rather than short...
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Post by michael on Jan 4, 2018 22:01:59 GMT
So long as he plays safe those investments shouldn’t flop.
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Post by Big Blue on Jan 4, 2018 23:51:14 GMT
I've been holding that stock firmly for 2 years.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2018 13:25:23 GMT
Rodge, just out of curiosity, what did you do? Looking at approximate purchase date, I'm guessing current GBP/BTC is about what it was when you bought? And did you buy with Sterling or dollar? It all seems to have gone a bit sour since Bitcoin futures came about, which could be because investors can now bet against the currency easily - or that a sanity check is happening.
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Post by rodge on Jan 27, 2018 2:00:34 GMT
Rodge, just out of curiosity, what did you do? Looking at approximate purchase date, I'm guessing current GBP/BTC is about what it was when you bought? And did you buy with Sterling or dollar? It all seems to have gone a bit sour since Bitcoin futures came about, which could be because investors can now bet against the currency easily - or that a sanity check is happening. I bought in when bitcoin was lower than now and bought more when it was higher, though not by much, so I’m about level for it over the past few weeks. I bought bitcoin cash which has plummeted, but I was only in for $100 and it’s worth about $55 now. I’ve almost doubled my money on Etherium which is good, and my Litecoin is down slightly. If I was to sell now, I’d be about even. I didn’t go in for a massive amount (overall I’ve invested about $2000) and I did sell last year when I’d made money, so I’m up about 10-15% for 3 months. I bought in dollars and did consider buying ripple at one stage but the transaction didn’t go through. It dropped and I’m glad I didn’t invest. I look at it as something of a learning exercise and I’ve done better than if it had been in the bank, but I’ve stopped investing now and am holding for a number of weeks.
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Post by rodge on Jan 27, 2018 2:00:52 GMT
Rodge, just out of curiosity, what did you do? Looking at approximate purchase date, I'm guessing current GBP/BTC is about what it was when you bought? And did you buy with Sterling or dollar? It all seems to have gone a bit sour since Bitcoin futures came about, which could be because investors can now bet against the currency easily - or that a sanity check is happening. I bought in when bitcoin was lower than now and bought more when it was higher, though not by much, so I’m about level for it over the past few weeks. I bought bitcoin cash which has plummeted, but I was only in for $100 and it’s worth about $55 now. I’ve almost doubled my money on Etherium which is good, and my Litecoin is down slightly. If I was to sell now, I’d be about even. I didn’t go in for a massive amount (overall I’ve invested about $2000) and I did sell last year when I’d made money, so I’m up about 10-15% for 3 months. I bought in dollars and did consider buying ripple at one stage but the transaction didn’t go through. It dropped and I’m glad I didn’t invest. I look at it as something of a learning exercise and I’ve done better than if it had been in the bank, but I’ve stopped investing now and am holding for a number of weeks.
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Post by johnc on Jan 27, 2018 7:55:02 GMT
I prefer to look for companies who have genuine growth potential because of changes in the way we live - GKN for example make a very large percentage of the hubs and other parts required in the drivetrain of electric cars - purchased in December after a fall in their price which made no sense to me and now up over 44%. Nothing in the above to be construed as investment advice, just a note of what I have done.
I think with a bit of thought there are lots of companies who have good potential and fairly low risk. When compared to crypto there is no doubt the up side for some people in crypto has been many thousand % but for me, the risks of losing or backing a loser are too high.
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Post by Stuntman on Jan 27, 2018 18:53:39 GMT
^^^ GKN's shares fell in response to a profits warning in November and then sacking their chief executive-elect in December as other accounting issues came to light in his former division. The shares have since gone up because of a hostile bid approach from Melrose Industries.
I have been contracting at GKN's head office for the past 11 months and unsurprisingly I'm being kept rather busy by them at the moment.
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Post by johnc on Jan 28, 2018 7:23:40 GMT
^^^ GKN's shares fell in response to a profits warning in November and then sacking their chief executive-elect in December as other accounting issues came to light in his former division. The shares have since gone up because of a hostile bid approach from Melrose Industries. I have been contracting at GKN's head office for the past 11 months and unsurprisingly I'm being kept rather busy by them at the moment. I still considered them to be undervalued when the price fell before Christmas which is why I bought at that stage. I think the business fundamentals and their market position are strong and the move to electric is only going to strengthen that further. Melrose obviously also feel there is untapped value.
That aside, glad to see you back in GT4 financing work!
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