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Post by michael on Apr 16, 2020 14:13:10 GMT
I think his accent is more pronounced.
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Post by johnc on Apr 16, 2020 16:01:57 GMT
My gripe with Freeports is the red tape. Can you imagine the paperwork needed to prove that goods that came in to the Freeport were then processed in some way and then exported again and didn't in some way find their way into the rest of the UK. I also struggle to think of many businesses who solely import, process and then export and apart from them, whoever they are, there are few benefits to anyone else. My Aunt used to work in a freight forwarding business and she remembers the pre and post EU days. In her opinion we no longer have the infrastructure to be able to carry out all the Customs checks needed to have goods imported and released within a reasonable time and in her words "the idiots who decided on this obviously never had to deal with importing and exporting before the EU". Time will tell if she is right. Freeports could certainly help the chemical industry and anyone who processes metals and raw materials from abroad. Teesside would see it as a boon. I'm not sure when your aunt worked in import export but we import raw materials from China, Romania and Italy and after manufacture our biggest markets are Malaysia, Brazil and the US. It's 2020 not 1990 and it's all very uncomplicated and happens very smoothly, using the electronic systems. In fact we find it's only marginally more complicated than trading within the EU. Strangely enough she worked in Teesside but she did retire about 15 years ago!!
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Apr 16, 2020 16:19:18 GMT
I'm not sure when your aunt worked in import export but we import raw materials from China, Romania and Italy and after manufacture our biggest markets are Malaysia, Brazil and the US. It's 2020 not 1990 and it's all very uncomplicated and happens very smoothly, using the electronic systems. In fact we find it's only marginally more complicated than trading within the EU. That's the status quo until the end of the transition period only. And much of that smoothness comes from the fact that such trade is conducted on the basis of the existing trade agreements and/or practices negotiated and/or developed by the EU with all those non-EU countries, and which as a member state of the EU we benefited from. If we leave without a deal that addresses all of the above, then what happens in terms of red tape? We've looked at this very closely and taken advice from international freight forwarders and there will be minimal impact.
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Post by ChrisM on Apr 16, 2020 16:26:45 GMT
Corona virus may not break Britain, but the Government reaction to it looks like it will
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Post by michael on Apr 16, 2020 16:35:26 GMT
Corona virus may not break Britain, but the Government reaction to it looks like it will I take it you'd ignore the advice of the CMO and CSO then Chris? Which tabloid editor should be advising the Government in your view?
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Post by ChrisM on Apr 16, 2020 17:34:11 GMT
Nope. I'm stuck at home getting more and more mad (crazy) as each day passes. But the country is going to suffer hugely as almost everything grinds to a total halt for 6 weeks when there are still very many of us who are fit and healthy, but prevented from having anything like a "normal" life. I'll have to chase Mental Health up to see what's happening about my next appointment - the focus for the country surely cannot be 100% driven by health and safety.... either that or we will emerge in a few months as the only country with any signs of life
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Post by LandieMark on Apr 16, 2020 17:43:33 GMT
Just because you are fit and healthy, doesn't mean you can't spread the virus far and wide to people who are less fit and healthy. That's the whole point of the so called lockdown.
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Post by michael on Apr 16, 2020 17:44:14 GMT
The problem is, Chris, is that as soon as a death does impact on you you’ll be blaming the government for that too. At the moment you’re coming across as the only victim, there is a bigger picture.
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Post by ChrisM on Apr 16, 2020 18:12:54 GMT
I assure you that I won't blame the government for my death or that of anyone close to me.... there's a risk associated with almost everything we do - could get run over by an errant speeding car when I go out to post a letter.
In fact 2 of the people I feel most sorry for are the couple who own Hays Travel. Having tried hard to rescue the staff of Thomas Cook, they are now faced with the prospect of almost zero customers for the foreseeable future. It the virus is only passed on by "transfer of body fluids", so long as we all wear face masks to stop us sneezing or coughing on anyone else, and don't touch each other (avoid shaking hands etc) then surely the lockdown can be relaxed significantly with zero, or minimal risk?
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Post by PG on Apr 16, 2020 18:43:19 GMT
The German and Dutch economy benefit enormously from the Euro unlike Italy. The Germans and Dutch should get used to sending more money to the rest of Europe. You sound like Salvini. The Euro can only work properly if there is political and fiscal union as well as monetary union. The UK and the US work as unions as there are fiscal transfers from the richer areas to the poorer areas for example. People might bitch and moan about them, but they are there. Every nation in the Euro zone can't be like Germany - it's mathematically impossible for everybody to run a trade surplus. Thus, either there has to be proper fiscal union in the Eurozone (and that might well include demands that the Greeks and Italians would be expected to behave differently in return for huge fiscal transfers from the richer north) or they need to find a way to unwind the Euro. At the moment the south won;t change their behaviour and the north won't agree to fiscal transfers. Equals stalemate and big problems.
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Post by racingteatray on Apr 16, 2020 19:53:36 GMT
That's the status quo until the end of the transition period only. And much of that smoothness comes from the fact that such trade is conducted on the basis of the existing trade agreements and/or practices negotiated and/or developed by the EU with all those non-EU countries, and which as a member state of the EU we benefited from. If we leave without a deal that addresses all of the above, then what happens in terms of red tape? We've looked at this very closely and taken advice from international freight forwarders and there will be minimal impact. "will be" or "is expected to be"?
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Post by michael on Apr 16, 2020 20:52:40 GMT
I assure you that I won't blame the government for my death or that of anyone close to me.... there's a risk associated with almost everything we do - could get run over by an errant speeding car when I go out to post a letter. In fact 2 of the people I feel most sorry for are the couple who own Hays Travel. Having tried hard to rescue the staff of Thomas Cook, they are now faced with the prospect of almost zero customers for the foreseeable future. It the virus is only passed on by "transfer of body fluids", so long as we all wear face masks to stop us sneezing or coughing on anyone else, and don't touch each other (avoid shaking hands etc) then surely the lockdown can be relaxed significantly with zero, or minimal risk? We don’t know the specifics of how the virus is transmitted. It seems to be more airborne than thought with speculation that it’s passed on by breathing and not just coughing. A mask would make some difference but does not guarantee people will wear suitable masks or wear them properly. It may be that eye protection is also required so should people wear goggles too? Lockdown will be relaxed when it’s safe to do so because it’s not responsible government to allow thousands of people to die.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Apr 16, 2020 21:07:27 GMT
We've looked at this very closely and taken advice from international freight forwarders and there will be minimal impact. "will be" or "is expected to be"? In your role as international trade expert what do you think? Don’t sit on the fence. I’d start by telling me about the EU-US-Brazil-Malaysian trade deals we’ll no longer be able to take advantage off...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 16, 2020 21:44:35 GMT
The type of masks available to the public are less use than a handkerchief, they get soggy very quickly by just breathing through them and that makes them a better for the virus to get a hold of and grow. Nice warm and moist which is just what the virus need. The better types are needed for those on the front line of treating victims. Seriously this has come up many times now.
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Post by Martin on Apr 16, 2020 22:37:37 GMT
The type of masks available to the public are less use than a handkerchief, they get soggy very quickly by just breathing through them and that makes them a better for the virus to get a hold of and grow. Nice warm and moist which is just what the virus need. The better types are needed for those on the front line of treating victims. Seriously this has come up many times now. They only last a couple of hours at most and should be disposed off properly as soon as they get wet, so one sneeze of breathing for a short period. I bet people who have them wear them time and time again, which makes them worse than not having one. Even the FFP2 masks we have at work only last 4 hours.
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Post by garry on Apr 17, 2020 6:30:33 GMT
I assure you that I won't blame the government for my death or that of anyone close to me.... there's a risk associated with almost everything we do - could get run over by an errant speeding car when I go out to post a letter. In fact 2 of the people I feel most sorry for are the couple who own Hays Travel. Having tried hard to rescue the staff of Thomas Cook, they are now faced with the prospect of almost zero customers for the foreseeable future. It the virus is only passed on by "transfer of body fluids", so long as we all wear face masks to stop us sneezing or coughing on anyone else, and don't touch each other (avoid shaking hands etc) then surely the lockdown can be relaxed significantly with zero, or minimal risk? Chris, Read this article on the new guidelines issued to police www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52312560You can, for example, drive a to a place to take a long walk and stop to eat lunch on that walk. Surely you can find a happy few hours and still stay within those rules? All you can do is take control of aspects of life that you can control. Kicking against the system ain’t going to help you or change the situation.
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Post by chipbutty on Apr 17, 2020 9:09:46 GMT
On the subject of the validity of lock down.
Most people are going to get this at some point because it will only burn out if everyone is locked in their homes and every single shop or business is permanently shut. We could also do this until a vaccine is found and deployed – but that is 18 months to “ never going to happen “.
All you can ever hope to achieve with lock down such as ours is to slow the transmission in order to buy time to ramp up hospital capacity.
Then, as soon as the capacity is delivered (which it has been – Nightingale and the other 16 or so temp facilities are now ready and (crucially) empty) – the lockdown should start to be lifted with the necessary precautions (observe social distancing with at risk individuals remaining in a lock down scenario).
It’s clear that those without underlying health concerns and who are healthy have very low risk from dying and low risk of being hospitalised.
So – in light of the above, consider this :
• Even under a lock down, at least 1 member of every household has to go to a supermarket at least once a week – so is it a reality that the lock down is slashing the risk of transmission ? Also – look at the shit show that is central London public transportation.
• Sweden hasn’t locked down, they’ve just been sensible and they are in no worse position than anyone else who hasn’t locked down.
• What’s going to happen to our precious health service and all of those who rely on it when the economy is smashed to pieces ? Has anyone modelled the unnecessary death scenarios in that instance ?
Of course – it’s easy to throw grenades when you are not at the sharp end having to make these decisions, but are you confident that the decisions being taken are completely apolitical and driven by data to ensure that balance between “ death deferral “ and not totally nixing the world as we know it is successfully maintained.
Finally - I assume those in the know have realised that the minute you end furlough payments, at least a 3rd of those poor buggers on furlough will just be dismissed.
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Post by johnc on Apr 17, 2020 9:32:26 GMT
at least a 3rd of those poor buggers on furlough will just be dismissed. and 100% of those who work for cinemas, hotels, restaurants, pubs, clubs, visitor centres, non food retail, motor dealership sales staff and many many others. I don't believe the economy will survive in anything like a healthy state if this second 3 week lock-down gets extended again. Large accountancy practices are now furloughing staff or putting them on a worse deal and making them work only 3 days a week for 60% of pay, partner's bonuses are being removed and landlords for the huge city centre offices are being complete bastards and are refusing any rent deferral or reduction - you have significantly reduced income and slightly reduced costs which can only go on for a short period of time. I am sure there are plenty of other large businesses and retailers who will be facing similar issues.
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Post by chipbutty on Apr 17, 2020 9:40:01 GMT
Every business that has had to furlough is working through a restructuring plan.
Unless the Chancellor has a plan to gradually wean business off the furlough teat as demand recovers, even the "nicest and most worker focused " business will be saddled with heads they don't need.
This also assumes demand will recover to pre-lockdown levels in the short term.
It's April 20th when the applications for furlough have to be submitted isn't it - I suspect a gigantic OMG WTF moment to land not long after.
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Post by michael on Apr 17, 2020 9:47:08 GMT
Then, as soon as the capacity is delivered (which it has been – Nightingale and the other 16 or so temp facilities are now ready and (crucially) empty) – the lockdown should start to be lifted with the necessary precautions (observe social distancing with at risk individuals remaining in a lock down scenario). They have the buildings but not the staffing or PPE. My understanding is that within this next three weeks the UK industries who have developed to build PPE will be able to start shipping in the volumes required and the testing infrastructure will be in place. The hope is that the numbers will be down to a level where they can effectively reintroduce contact tracing and manage the problem that way so that restrictions can be lifted gradually.
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Post by Martin on Apr 17, 2020 9:51:47 GMT
Furlough is helping in the short term, but Pete is right, it's just buying businesses time to come up with a restructuring plan.
Absence / self isolation is hurting us and must be the same for most businesses. We've currently got 1,160 people self isolating (down from a peak of 2,124 on 1st April) and the % that get full company sick pay varies by operation, but mine is running at circa 80% and I've got 182 people off as of today.
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Post by Big Blue on Apr 17, 2020 10:02:41 GMT
Yep. The $350bn fed allowance burned out in under three weeks. HMG will swiftly come up with a back to work plan as soon as the bill hits the desk.
Alas there is no viable solution other than to accept deaths. The numbers being admitted to hospital has stabilised and deaths continue to plateau as well, hence there will be an acceptance of more deaths whilst life starts to return to the capitalist model. I go to the supermarket at least once a week. Social distancing is lax at best after seeing all manner of busy open spaces after the weekend and pictures last night showed a complete lack of it on Westminster Bridge as key workers were applauded. That’s not to suggest that everyone should go to a football match but an awful lot of taxpayers in the SE use mass transit so there are lots of issues to consider in any “exit strategy”.
Perhaps the biggest concern for office workers will be the commute - both in terms of social distancing and the now evident utter futility of it. Oh and the main reason the US wants to end lockdown ASAP is not just the economy: lots of disgruntled workers are armed and civil unrest in the US looks a whole lot different to that in the UK.
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Post by garry on Apr 17, 2020 10:08:50 GMT
On the subject of the validity of lock down. Most people are going to get this at some point because it will only burn out if everyone is locked in their homes and every single shop or business is permanently shut. We could also do this until a vaccine is found and deployed – but that is 18 months to “ never going to happen “. All you can ever hope to achieve with lock down such as ours is to slow the transmission in order to buy time to ramp up hospital capacity. Then, as soon as the capacity is delivered (which it has been – Nightingale and the other 16 or so temp facilities are now ready and (crucially) empty) – the lockdown should start to be lifted with the necessary precautions (observe social distancing with at risk individuals remaining in a lock down scenario). It’s clear that those without underlying health concerns and who are healthy have very low risk from dying and low risk of being hospitalised. So – in light of the above, consider this : • Even under a lock down, at least 1 member of every household has to go to a supermarket at least once a week – so is it a reality that the lock down is slashing the risk of transmission ? Also – look at the shit show that is central London public transportation. • Sweden hasn’t locked down, they’ve just been sensible and they are in no worse position than anyone else who hasn’t locked down. • What’s going to happen to our precious health service and all of those who rely on it when the economy is smashed to pieces ? Has anyone modelled the unnecessary death scenarios in that instance ? Of course – it’s easy to throw grenades when you are not at the sharp end having to make these decisions, but are you confident that the decisions being taken are completely apolitical and driven by data to ensure that balance between “ death deferral “ and not totally nixing the world as we know it is successfully maintained. Finally - I assume those in the know have realised that the minute you end furlough payments, at least a 3rd of those poor buggers on furlough will just be dismissed. I agree with all of this. I was talking to a ceo of a midsized company a couple of days back. He said he’d furloughed many people because it “at least got them some money for a couple more months before the inevitable happens”. I think there’s a lack of clarity in the public mindset about what the lockdown does and what risks we truly face. Too many seem to think that the lockdown will stop the virus and coronavirus is a death sentence. The reality is we were only ever trying to flatten the curve. The curve has been flattened from an nhs perspective and the virus is not high risk to the general population. The media play out the awful edge-cases every day, but the number of deaths are circa half of the great flu pandemic of 2015 (remember that? Thought not, but it was a bad year for flu and there were about 28,000 additional deaths in the uk because of it).
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Post by chipbutty on Apr 17, 2020 10:10:19 GMT
I can't wait to get back to work (office) - I hate working from home and it's not been helped by Virgin feckin Media who are a complete shower of twunts.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2020 10:12:46 GMT
The media need something to moan about something, they did a lot of that for brexit and now they don't know how to do anything else. Continuation of the the behaviour because they think they got a lot out of it. Operant conditioning at it's best.
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Post by chipbutty on Apr 17, 2020 10:15:03 GMT
The media have done a generally awful job with this and they don't really help themselves when it comes to freedom of speech. I've stopped reading all the internet news because it was winding me up.
I also haven't looked at FB for a while because I don't trust myself to respond rationally to the next post that says " IF YOU GO OUT YOU ARE SIGNING SOMEONE'S DEATH WARRANT - STAY AT HOME....."
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Post by michael on Apr 17, 2020 10:36:06 GMT
The type of masks available to the public are less use than a handkerchief, they get soggy very quickly by just breathing through them and that makes them a better for the virus to get a hold of and grow. That's not how a virus replicates, it needs to be in the cells of a host.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2020 10:45:14 GMT
Bad choice of verbiage, lazy. The virus can live in warm moist environments longer than cold non porous surfaces and they WILL live for a fair old while in those paper things a lot of people are using. I believe the operating theatre practice has reduced the use of the paper masks from two hours to one but with the recent situation even that may be out of date information preferring the full covid masks as some people are calling them. Sorry.
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Post by PG on Apr 17, 2020 12:29:36 GMT
I agree with all of this. I was talking to a ceo of a midsized company a couple of days back. He said he’d furloughed many people because it “at least got them some money for a couple more months before the inevitable happens”. I think there’s a lack of clarity in the public mindset about what the lockdown does and what risks we truly face. Too many seem to think that the lockdown will stop the virus and coronavirus is a death sentence. The reality is we were only ever trying to flatten the curve. The curve has been flattened from an nhs perspective and the virus is not high risk to the general population. The media play out the awful edge-cases every day, but the number of deaths are circa half of the great flu pandemic of 2015 (remember that? Thought not, but it was a bad year for flu and there were about 28,000 additional deaths in the uk because of it). Sadly your CEO's comment is where this is all going. Once furlough ends, people will be making decisions as to how much business they will get and will change their business accordingly. Yes, there will be pent up demand in some industries that will help, but I can't see retail or hospitality bouncing back. And largely that is because the government have aimed their message at a pretty low common denominator - stay home, save the NHS, save lives. So, when we are all told to not stay home any more, reversing that message will be very difficult. As already said earlier, the reality is much more nuanced.
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Post by Tim on Apr 17, 2020 13:20:15 GMT
Our experience of working from home has led to several of us questioning how much office space we actually need. It's our 3rd biggest cost and I can see it is an easy way to add a decent amount to our bottom line. I think the value of office space may take a dive on the back of the current situation.
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