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Post by racingteatray on Sept 3, 2019 19:22:40 GMT
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Post by Alex on Sept 4, 2019 5:56:45 GMT
Indeed do I. Boris seems increasingly like someone who has wanted this job all his life but only for the sake of having the job and now he's got it, clearly has not planned for the realities of the job. I'm utterly fed up of all this now. If we're going to negotiate why aren't we just getting on with it?! If Boris has an alternative to the backstop why won't he tell us what it is? Or better yet tell the EU what it is so they can kick themselves for not thinking of it too. The consequences of our dithering are being felt by our economy and those of many EU countries so it's time we sorted it out, it's just a shame we have no politicians capable of it.
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Post by ChrisM on Sept 4, 2019 7:05:05 GMT
I'm utterly fed up of all this now. If we're going to negotiate why aren't we just getting on with it?! If Boris has an alternative to the backstop why won't he tell us what it is? Or better yet tell the EU what it is so they can kick themselves for not thinking of it too. The consequences of our dithering are being felt by our economy and those of many EU countries so it's time we sorted it out, it's just a shame we have no politicians capable of it. Me too, the politicians have had 3 years to plan for, and sort out a "deal" but they still cannot agree if they even want a deal or no-deal. It's a sad reflection of their total inability to put the country first, above their own interests IMHO. As I said previously, IIRC, if we have a general election then none of the current MPs should be allowed to stand as they have proven themselves to be totally incompetent and ineffective
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Post by johnc on Sept 4, 2019 7:18:01 GMT
Indeed do I. Boris seems increasingly like someone who has wanted this job all his life but only for the sake of having the job and now he's got it, clearly has not planned for the realities of the job. I'm utterly fed up of all this now. If we're going to negotiate why aren't we just getting on with it?! If Boris has an alternative to the backstop why won't he tell us what it is? Or better yet tell the EU what it is so they can kick themselves for not thinking of it too. The consequences of our dithering are being felt by our economy and those of many EU countries so it's time we sorted it out, it's just a shame we have no politicians capable of it. I agree, I am totally fed up of the mess too and it is affecting business. I can't see any way around the Irish border problem and I don't think anyone else can either. You simply can't have freedom of movement between NI and Eire whilst being outside the free trade/freedom of movement area. Lorries could trundle back and forward over the border carrying all sorts of goods that should have tariffs and people could move just as easily and then slip in through the back door by taking the ferry to Stranraer. My fear is that the more extreme element would happily sacrifice Northern Ireland to get Brexit. However we are now in totally uncharted waters with the near certainty of a General Election and absolutely no idea about who will be in power when it's all finished. The Lib Dems could do very well if the remain part of the electorate despise/fear Corbyn enough, the SNP in Scotland could wipe the floor with most other parties except a few LibDems and maybe a Tory or two in the fishing constituencies and the Brexit Party could wade in strong in previous Labour strongholds. This is really like cashing in everything you own and heading down to the casino.
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Post by Tim on Sept 4, 2019 8:13:20 GMT
Indeed do I. Boris seems increasingly like someone who has wanted this job all his life but only for the sake of having the job and now he's got it, clearly has not planned for the realities of the job. I'm utterly fed up of all this now. If we're going to negotiate why aren't we just getting on with it?! If Boris has an alternative to the backstop why won't he tell us what it is? Or better yet tell the EU what it is so they can kick themselves for not thinking of it too. The consequences of our dithering are being felt by our economy and those of many EU countries so it's time we sorted it out, it's just a shame we have no politicians capable of it. I agree, I am totally fed up of the mess too and it is affecting business. I can't see any way around the Irish border problem and I don't think anyone else can either. You simply can't have freedom of movement between NI and Eire whilst being outside the free trade/freedom of movement area. Lorries could trundle back and forward over the border carrying all sorts of goods that should have tariffs and people could move just as easily and then slip in through the back door by taking the ferry to Stranraer. My fear is that the more extreme element would happily sacrifice Northern Ireland to get Brexit. However we are now in totally uncharted waters with the near certainty of a General Election and absolutely no idea about who will be in power when it's all finished. The Lib Dems could do very well if the remain part of the electorate despise/fear Corbyn enough, the SNP in Scotland could wipe the floor with most other parties except a few LibDems and maybe a Tory or two in the fishing constituencies and the Brexit Party could wade in strong in previous Labour strongholds. This is really like cashing in everything you own and heading down to the casino. Yup, agree with all of that. I can see us having a general election and ending up with another Lib/Con coalition but with Johnson absolutely nowhere in sight. I was listening to Keir Starmer interviewed on Radio 4 this morning found myself agreeing with quite a lot of what he said, principally about pretty much no-one (apart from the staunch Brexiters perhaps) having an ounce of trust in anything Johnson says. I'm also pretty sure that Corbyn will get nowhere near No 10 either, thankfully. Out of interest what is the shortest term a Prime Minister has ever served?
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Post by michael on Sept 4, 2019 9:09:55 GMT
Out of interest what is the shortest term a Prime Minister has ever served? In the UK it'll be Boris Johnson. Australia had one service nine days but his excuse was he got killed.
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Post by racingteatray on Sept 4, 2019 9:35:28 GMT
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Post by PetrolEd on Sept 4, 2019 9:48:59 GMT
I've had my fill of it. I was prepared to trust Boris by leaving no deal on the table and for him to go to Brussels and negotiate a better deal on our behalf. And I believe it would have been the best strategy available to us.
Obviously those who know Boris best don't trust him and maybe I should be thankful that parliament has stopped any chance of no deal and along with it the chance of us negotiating a better deal.
Quite frankly I feel lied too and cheated and I'm a staunch Remainer, god only knows what people who actually want to leave feel like.
The only thing for sure is that the longer this nonsense goes on the more the British public will move to leave. Even I am at a stage where I just want it dealt with.
Its been 3 years and all we hear is what the politicians don't want, we haven't a clue what they do want and as such parliament has shown itself to be utterly unfit for purpose in dealing with issues. So to get back to the OP's question, surely we need someone to lie and cheat the system as its the only way of getting a deal cross the line.
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Post by racingteatray on Sept 4, 2019 9:49:04 GMT
Good balanced piece on Johnson's strategy and chances:
FTShrimsley.pdf (143.8 KB)
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Post by michael on Sept 4, 2019 9:55:11 GMT
I've had my fill of it. I was prepared to trust Boris by leaving no deal on the table and for him to go to Brussels and negotiate a better deal on our behalf. And I believe it would have been the best strategy available to us. Obviously those who know Boris best don't trust him and maybe I should be thankful that parliament has stopped any chance of no deal and along with it the chance of us negotiating a better deal. Quite frankly I feel lied too and cheated and I'm a staunch Remainer, god only knows what people who actually want to leave feel like. The only thing for sure is that the longer this nonsense goes on the more the British public will move to leave. Even I am at a stage where I just want it dealt with. Its been 3 years and all we hear is what the politicians don't want, we haven't a clue what they do want and as such parliament has shown itself to be utterly unfit for purpose in dealing with issues. So to get back to the OP's question, surely we need someone to lie and cheat the system as its the only way of getting a deal cross the line. This is pretty much where I am. I simply don't see how taking no deal off the table is a good move when the only deal the EU are prepared to accept is the one voted down three times. My worry now is we get Corbyn who I perceive as a far greater threat than no deal.
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Post by LandieMark on Sept 4, 2019 9:56:43 GMT
I've had my fill of it. I was prepared to trust Boris by leaving no deal on the table and for him to go to Brussels and negotiate a better deal on our behalf. And I believe it would have been the best strategy available to us. Obviously those who know Boris best don't trust him and maybe I should be thankful that parliament has stopped any chance of no deal and along with it the chance of us negotiating a better deal. Quite frankly I feel lied too and cheated and I'm a staunch Remainer, god only knows what people who actually want to leave feel like. The only thing for sure is that the longer this nonsense goes on the more the British public will move to leave. Even I am at a stage where I just want it dealt with. Its been 3 years and all we hear is what the politicians don't want, we haven't a clue what they do want and as such parliament has shown itself to be utterly unfit for purpose in dealing with issues. So to get back to the OP's question, surely we need someone to lie and cheat the system as its the only way of getting a deal cross the line. This is pretty much where I am. I simply don't see how taking no deal off the table is a good move when the only deal the EU are prepared to accept is the one voted down three times. My worry now is we get Corbyn who I perceive as a far greater threat than no deal. Me too.
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Post by johnc on Sept 4, 2019 10:10:21 GMT
As a firm remainer, I would take a no deal Brexit before Corbyn! IMHO he is the single biggest threat to the stability and wealth of the UK.
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Post by michael on Sept 4, 2019 10:13:23 GMT
I think the recent parliamentary games has made him more likely. We'll be discussing a hard border with Scotland with him.
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Post by PetrolEd on Sept 4, 2019 10:14:27 GMT
Agreed but I'm not sure Corbyns the threat now. Remianers won't vote Labour as they don't know where they sit on the subject of Brexit which only leaves Libs and of course they have the Brexit party threat as much as the tories.
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Post by racingteatray on Sept 4, 2019 10:22:45 GMT
Shades of Project Fear here, because of course Brexit and Corbyn is a truly lethal combo.
But....you only get unfettered Corbyn if Labour wins a working majority.
I'm not sure he can.
First, the SNP eats Labour alive north of the border, the Tories and the Brexit party will steal Labour votes in northern Brexit heartlands, the Greens nibble at Labour's fringes and most Tory defectors will surely go to the LibDems (like me) or the Brexit party rather than vote for Corbyn.
Secondly, there are plenty of centrists in Labour who abhor the Corbyn/McDonnell/Milne agenda, so I suspect there would be internal resistance, particularly if the majority was small.
And thirdly, in a left-wing coalition, it's highly doubtful that the SNP or LibDems will support a hard left agenda of the sort that John McDonnell dreams of.
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Post by michael on Sept 4, 2019 10:26:50 GMT
The SNP would work with Corbyn, though, as he's "fine" with independence. My concern with him is what he can do with executive powers and particularly in terms of damaging the intelligence community in a very short space of time. I wouldn't put it past him to recognise Palestine and cut off ties with Israel causing a huge breakdown in UK/US relations leading to complete fuckage.
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Post by johnc on Sept 4, 2019 10:42:12 GMT
Labour and the SNP have already had "you scratch my back and i'll scratch your's" talks. That's why Corbyn has said that he will not prevent a second Scottish referendum if that's what the Scottish Parliament votes for - I think SNP will support Labour at Westminster if they can get a second referendum because after that (on the basis that they believe they will win) they won't be bothered about Westminster.
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Post by johnc on Sept 4, 2019 10:44:25 GMT
I wouldn't put it past him to recognise Palestine and cut off ties with Israel causing a huge breakdown in UK/US relations leading to complete fuckage. And he then holds another Brexit referendum which votes leave and we then try to do trade deals with the US! Right royal fuckage as you say.
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Post by racingteatray on Sept 4, 2019 10:47:09 GMT
Let's look at the parliamentary arithmetic to try and put some perspective on all this.
At present Labour have 247 seats and SNP has 35, putting them on a combined 282, still putting them behind the Tories who have 289 even after last night's mass expulsion.
You need to get to 326 to have a simple majority, meaning at present a Lab/SNP coalition is 44 seats short of even what would still really be a hung parliament. In that scenario, even if the SNP picked up all of the Tories' 13 seats and all of Labour's 7 seats in Scotland, that still leaves Labour needing to find at least 24 more seats compared to the last election.
In fact, in order to do anything really radical, I think Labour needs an outright majority in its own right, meaning they need to pick up 80 seats, which would be a swing of over 12%.
I'm not convinced that Corbyn has that kind of mass appeal at this point.
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Post by johnc on Sept 4, 2019 10:51:13 GMT
Forget mass appeal, he has no appeal at all.
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Post by racingteatray on Sept 4, 2019 10:59:47 GMT
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Post by scouse on Sept 4, 2019 12:04:45 GMT
This is pretty much where I am. I simply don't see how taking no deal off the table is a good move when the only deal the EU are prepared to accept is the one voted down three times. My worry now is we get Corbyn who I perceive as a far greater threat than no deal. Me too. It's not just taking No Deal off the table. Benn's bill ties the PM's hands to the EU's timescale UNLESS he can get parliament to agree to tell them to go forth: "If the European Council proposes an extension to a different date then the Prime Minister must accept that extension within two days, unless the House of Commons rejects it."
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Post by racingteatray on Sept 4, 2019 12:11:55 GMT
It’s also been pointed out that the EU selected 31/10/19 as the deadline and that which the EU selects, it can also unilaterally change.
I don’t think that stops Boris crashing us out on 31/10/19 with no deal, but it would mean that he has to do so deliberately and be responsible for the consequences of doing so, whereas it’s abundantly clear that his preference would be it to happen automatically so that he could absolve himself of future responsibility for it.
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Post by scouse on Sept 4, 2019 12:36:11 GMT
It’s also been pointed out that the EU selected 31/10/19 as the deadline and that which the EU selects, it can also unilaterally change. I don’t think that stops Boris crashing us out on 31/10/19 with no deal, but it would mean that he has to do so deliberately and be responsible for the consequences of doing so, whereas it’s abundantly clear that his preference would be it to happen automatically so that he could absolve himself of future responsibility for it. But the EU can only request that the UK agree to a changde of date with the full agreement of the other 27 states. There doesn't appear to be a way for the EU to extend the date unless the benn bill is passed. "Who decides to extend Article 50? Article 50 allows for either side to request an extension, but it was the UK that, on 20 March, made the first formal request for an extension. The extension required the unanimous agreement in the European Council, the grouping of all EU heads of state and government." www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/article-50-options
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Post by racingteatray on Sept 4, 2019 13:06:10 GMT
That may well be the case as regards consent from the EU27 - I've not looked into the nuances of it. Plus, I don't suppose it's impossible that the EU27 has already agreed between themselves on this point.
Not sure why the Benn Bill needs to pass first. But I expect that in practice it will first.
I think unilateral extension by the EU is something the EU wouldn't do until the last minute as a way of holding the feet of whoever is PM at that point to the fire and forcing them to choose between No Deal and an extension.
That way the EU forces Britain to own No Deal.
And this is No Deal: blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/ivan-rogers-the-realities-of-a-no-deal-brexit/
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Post by scouse on Sept 4, 2019 13:32:52 GMT
That may well be the case as regards consent from the EU27 - I've not looked into the nuances of it. Plus, I don't suppose it's impossible that the EU27 has already agreed between themselves on this point. Not sure why the Benn Bill needs to pass first. But I expect that in practice it will first. I think unilateral extension by the EU is something the EU wouldn't do until the last minute as a way of holding the feet of whoever is PM at that point to the fire and forcing them to choose between No Deal and an extension. That way the EU forces Britain to own No Deal. When it comes to the EU, who knows? Allegedly Macron is dead set against an extension, but like you say it may already be sewn up. The Benn bill needs to pass to stop no deal happening automatically on 1st November should Boris force a GE in the meantime. But the Lords needs to pass an amendment in order to get the Benn bill up the ladder & force a vote on it to amke it law. Only problem is Boris's tame Lords have put 102 amendments to that bill which means the Lords will have to debate that for a at least 100 hours before the Benn bill can even get a reading! The EU can't force a unilateral extension, it can only request an extension from the UK To do so requires the agreement of all member states. All 28 member states. Including the UK. So for the EU to request an extension to the Article 50 process it has to get the agreement of the UK, to ask the UK to extend! The whole thing has descended into farce.
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Post by racingteatray on Sept 4, 2019 13:36:58 GMT
We shall undoubtedly see in due course.
It's been a farce from the get-go. If you read the Spectator piece, you will realise that the thrust of it is not that the underlying concerns aren't valid, but that we went about addressing them in a spectacularly misbegotten way.
Led, indeed, by donkeys.
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Post by johnc on Sept 4, 2019 14:02:37 GMT
That is a very sobering and in my eyes, very astute view of the position we find ourselves in.
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Post by Tim on Sept 4, 2019 15:39:24 GMT
All this stuff about not taking no deal off the table to get a good deal from the EU appears to be utter nonsense as, reports over the last 24 hours or so, suggest that NO negotiation was going on at recent talks - apart from what sandwich fillings people wanted - becasue there was zero interest from the Johnson team to get any sort of deal.
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Post by scouse on Sept 4, 2019 18:06:59 GMT
By giving the extension to the 31st October, the EU specifically excluded renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement, so there never was any negotiation anyway!
The poison dwarf may have just shot himself and the Benn bill in the foot by saying it doesn’t need Royal Consent because Cooper-Letwin didn’t. Problem is, apparently, that Cooper-letwin only demanded the PM ask for extension, Benn says he has to agree one...
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