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Post by PG on Jul 23, 2019 18:30:59 GMT
The biggest problem with Boris' plan is that Parliament may not vote to accept whatever deal he gets and they have already voted to reject a no deal Brexit - we might still be in limbo for some time to come. I'm not sure that is the strict legal position. Parliament had an indicative vote to reject a no deal Brexit. May said she would respect it. A new government would not have to be bound by it. Therefore, as the law stands, we triggered article 50 that says we leave in 2 years. We were allowed an extension to 31 October by the EU. The EU Withdrawal act (wrong name I think?) is set up to take over in UK law all the EU law areas from our leaving date. So if Boris does nothing and introduces no new laws that other people can force amendments into, it appears that the default position is that we leave without a deal on 31 October. Only three things could stop that. (1) Boris does a new deal with the EU that Parliament accepts. (2) Parliament vote to revoke article 50. (3) A vote of no confidence - put forward by Labour - results in a GE and a new government (assuming that they got into power before 31 October) had a different idea / policy and asked for another extension. And I think that in negotiations with the EU, hardball is the only language they understand. Mrs T only got the UK rebate by handbagging them all until they gave in - she didn't ask nicely. Blair played nice and agreed to cut the UK rebate in return for CAP reform, but somehow the CAP reform never materialised. Cameron played nice and look where that got him / us.
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Post by racingteatray on Jul 29, 2019 14:00:00 GMT
The eu need us and a deal with us just as much or more. The fact that they have been so hard nosed is mere negotiation method 101. The fact that large numbers of our own scrotes want to remove the biggest bargaining chip we have is, imvho, treason. The biggest bargaining chip was not triggering Art.50 and you all bayed vigorously for that to be triggered. Just to be clear.
If Johnson pushes too hard on no deal, he is quite liable to fall into a trap laid for him by Macron, who is arguing behind the scenes that Britain should simply be hung out to dry with no deal never mind the consequences.
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Post by johnc on Jul 29, 2019 14:08:51 GMT
The biggest bargaining chip was not triggering Art.50 and you all bayed vigorously for that to be triggered.
Not me, I thought that was a big mistake.
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Post by racingteatray on Jul 29, 2019 14:18:44 GMT
Sorry, by "you" in this instance, I meant the majority of Brexiteers. There were some Brexiteers (like Dominic Cummings) who understood that triggering Art.50 without a plan was insane, but most just screamed treason until Parliament caved in and gave them what they wanted.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2019 15:13:21 GMT
Article 50 should not have been triggered until the clowns had a clue but the remaining mp's have always undermined the position of the UK versus that of the eu. Once article 50 was triggered there was really no other choice than no deal.
Various interest groups have seen to that.
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Post by Tim on Jul 29, 2019 16:12:30 GMT
The eu need us and a deal with us just as much or more. I don't entirely buy this argument. Simple arithmetic says that although there would be pain on both sides for the EU it would be shared among 500M people but for us it would be among 65M. So, yes, they may need a deal but we need it more.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2019 17:03:43 GMT
Apparently the eu is heading for recession, cannot remember which news channel that came from but most likely the beeb. I read that as a downward trend with recession being a bit more excessive than needed but either way they need us as much as we need them and the sooner both sides grow a pair of grey cells and use them the better.
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Post by Roadrunner on Jul 29, 2019 19:50:15 GMT
Apparently the eu is heading for recession, cannot remember which news channel that came from but most likely the beeb. I read that as a downward trend with recession being a bit more excessive than needed but either way they need us as much as we need them and the sooner both sides grow a pair of grey cells and use them the better. My suppliers in Germany speak of a significant slow-down in sales of plant and machinery. A large manufacturer of artic lorry trailers has apparently just gone under.
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Post by Tim on Jul 30, 2019 8:42:54 GMT
I'm pretty sure we're heading for recession as well.
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Post by ChrisM on Jul 30, 2019 9:41:25 GMT
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Jul 30, 2019 10:04:45 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2019 10:53:41 GMT
I'm pretty sure we're heading for recession as well. If everyone gets a grip there is no need for it.
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Post by johnc on Jul 30, 2019 11:19:49 GMT
Did the UK export all of its Union leader nutters of the 70's to Germany? I have also heard of a real slow down in Germany and a recession looks likely for us all, the blame for some of which has to be laid at the door of Brexit/EU and the uncertainty and lack of spending/investment it has caused.
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Post by racingteatray on Jul 30, 2019 12:56:07 GMT
I'm pretty sure we're heading for recession as well. If everyone gets a grip there is no need for it. I'm fairly sure that's not how it works.
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Post by cbeaks1 on Jul 30, 2019 13:04:05 GMT
Gaze into that nice Mr Raaab’s eyes and believe. A golden age is coming.
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Post by Tim on Jul 30, 2019 13:34:02 GMT
Gaze into that nice Mr Raaab’s eyes and believe. A golden age is coming. Not just him. According to the Welsh Secretary there's a 'significant' new market for lamb products as Japan has just opened up to British products. So that'll take all of the 40% currently exported to the EU and more, won't it. The overoptimism is breathtaking.
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Post by racingteatray on Jul 30, 2019 13:43:29 GMT
That's what happens when you let an oversexed labradoodle in 10 Downing Street
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Jul 30, 2019 13:59:48 GMT
Gaze into that nice Mr Raaab’s eyes and believe. A golden age is coming. Not just him. According to the Welsh Secretary there's a 'significant' new market for lamb products as Japan has just opened up to British products. So that'll take all of the 40% currently exported to the EU and more, won't it. The overoptimism is breathtaking. Isn't this due to the trade deal that the EU has just done with Japan though? (The same one that will kill the Japanese car plants in the UK).
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Post by Tim on Jul 30, 2019 14:35:37 GMT
No idea, I'm just quoting what the delusional Welsh Secretary said.
He's obviously high on Boris or something!
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Aug 2, 2019 12:01:59 GMT
If everyone gets a grip there is no need for it. I'm fairly sure that's not how it works. To be fair, it often is. Economic performance in major economies is largely about confidence - confidence to invest, confidence to spend. It's easy to talk yourself into a recession by going into panic mode and hunkering down for bad economic weather and bringing about or hastening that which you fear.
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