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Post by racingteatray on Dec 11, 2018 17:51:45 GMT
Curious to see what you all think is most likely to happen at this point.
So please pick (up to) the three things you think are likeliest to happen.
These are not necessarily the same three things that you might want to see happen!
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Post by michael on Dec 11, 2018 18:18:30 GMT
Very difficult. I don't think they'll be a confidence vote because I think the 48 letters will be in before that happens. I put Corbyn as PM as an unlikely but not impossible chance. I if that happens we get hard brexit, if it doesn't other options come into play. But really, who knows? The whole thing is absurd.
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Post by racingteatray on Dec 11, 2018 19:09:10 GMT
It is indeed very difficult.
The 48 letters would be an utterly insane thing for the ERG to do. But that doesn't make it improbable sadly.
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Post by michael on Dec 11, 2018 19:14:59 GMT
Apparently the letters are in but nothing will be announced until she’s back in the country.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2018 19:40:12 GMT
12 votes but 6 voters?
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Post by Martin on Dec 11, 2018 19:57:03 GMT
The instruction was to select up to 3
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2018 20:09:02 GMT
I got that but was expecting more certainty in votes.
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Post by PetrolEd on Dec 11, 2018 21:55:28 GMT
Corbyn as PM and hard brexit so you Can’t leave the country when everything gets even more messed up by a loopy socialist government. We really are fucktards.
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Post by racingteatray on Dec 11, 2018 22:49:33 GMT
Apparently the letters are in but nothing will be announced until she’s back in the country. Then the Tory party and ERG are more insane than I ever imagined possible. I cannot see how that gets them what they want.
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Post by Big Blue on Dec 11, 2018 23:21:22 GMT
All fucked up. That’s the only correct answer.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2018 0:40:53 GMT
I believe that the inmates of the asylum are looking out for themselves and sod the rest. What a load of tossers.
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Post by johnc on Dec 12, 2018 7:22:58 GMT
Corbyn as PM and hard brexit so you Can’t leave the country when everything gets even more messed up by a loopy socialist government. We really are fucktards. That sets out my feelings perfectly. We had a large family get together last night and it turned into a bit of a political rant when some of the younger members of the family said that they thought we should give Jeremy Corbyn a go because he couldn't do any worse that the current Government - cue tales of the 70's to some rather shocked faces that they might have no electricity after 6pm and that would include the internet and TV, bins might not get collected, trains might not run, schools might be shut and if you are lucky enough to pay tax at higher rates, be ready for that to increase to 60% with a nice 15% cherry on top if you have any dividend or savings income.
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Post by ChrisM on Dec 12, 2018 7:55:07 GMT
We get that all the time in the south-east anyway
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Post by racingteatray on Dec 12, 2018 8:08:35 GMT
Michael was right. Tories are going in for regicide - one of their favoured activities when they make a pig’s ear of events.
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Post by johnc on Dec 12, 2018 8:11:29 GMT
Politicians really are responsible for the whole mess the country is in just now - they should all be tried for treason.
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Post by Big Blue on Dec 12, 2018 8:51:35 GMT
Just arrived in Westminster.
Lots of people hurrying to get in position.....
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Post by michael on Dec 12, 2018 9:20:25 GMT
My choices were General election, hard brexit and Corbyn as PM. I think they're all more likely today. We're fucked.
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Post by PG on Dec 12, 2018 11:00:40 GMT
Well, 48 letters are in, so vote of no confidence it is. Result at 9pm tonight.
My answers depend on how that goes.
If she scrapes through and stays on as PM, it'll either be May's "cosmetically enhanced "deal" (as she'll just run the clock down until people vote for that, including some Labour and Lib Dem support) to avoid a no-deal. In which case DUP withdraw support, vote of no confidence in the government is lost and then there is a GE and Corbyn comes to power.
If she stays on and the deal is defeated in the HOC, then we're into no deal scenarios. Probably a managed no deal.
If she loses the vote, a new leader will have to go back to the EU and say either they give concessions or the deal is off. DUP support maintained that way, so no GE and some sort of Brexit happens as EU may offer a few olive branches. Either that or a managed no deal.
Meanwhile the riots in France will continue.....
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2018 13:37:36 GMT
I see the eu just as fractured as we are, frankly none of them are worth a carrot.
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Post by Big Blue on Dec 12, 2018 14:06:21 GMT
I see the eu just as fractured as we are, frankly none of them are worth a carrot. The problem has always been that Germany has always benefitted from the existence of the EU as it collectively makes their stonking output affordable to the rest of the world through a shared currency with a falsely low value (for Germany - falsely high for Greece, Spain, Italy....etc) and the rest of the EU has always simply ignored the rules as they are supposed to be implemented. EU directives are designed to guide local (ie individual nation) legislation and so long as the legislation captures the essence of the directive the local law is OK. We've been dreadful mugs for decades and implemented directives to the letter thus making our own laws look like shite. There are various other cultural issues and the fact that the UK has some legislation and case law that is far older than anything the EU has to offer but which can be overridden by the ECJ, a huge history of doing international business with the rest of the world, a huge history of controlling the rest of the world and therefore ours and their trade partnerships (something the EU states always hated before there was an EU) and a long term history of warring with the rest of Europe. The EU and its forebears (as has oft been said by Bob on here and others elsewhere) was designed as a free trade area. No joined legislation set by a single parliament and no single currency, which in the past allowed nations to weather economic strife through their own banking systems. The CE standards body was always a good idea (apart from preventing me importing my Kushitani leathers this year!) but the freedom of movement AND entitlement to the benefits system of any member state that you chose to live in was not. This is an area that, again, the UK has been shite at managing. The reason there are hordes of migrants on the beaches in France waiting for the next piece of driftwood to float past that they can hop on and get to Kent on is because we have not managed the benefits and employment system as the rest of Europe has done. In France you can't get a Polish builder to come and fit your toilet suite (and France is worse for it as the local supply chain is often a lazy bunch of entitled sons of artisans and grandsons of artisans that are now in the media, lawyers or work 4 hours a day maximum) so to the onlooker it seems that there is actually only true free movement to work in the EU in the UK when in actuality its our application of employment legislation that allows this (Polish builders can work in France but have to do all the correct registrations that French ones have to do and pay all the employment related taxes that goes with it). The EU is fractured but they don't have that UK history of proper independence because although we live under a 1,000+ year monarchy we have spent much of it as independents whereas Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, France, Germany, etc etc haven't had that long history of being biggest dog in their own house. All that sounds a bit anti-EU but it was just to paint a picture of how toilet all of Europe is, including the UK.
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Post by Bob Sacamano v2.0 on Dec 12, 2018 14:37:06 GMT
Don't panic!
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Post by PG on Dec 12, 2018 17:10:07 GMT
I see the eu just as fractured as we are, frankly none of them are worth a carrot. The problem has always been..... The EU and its forebears (as has oft been said by Bob on here and others elsewhere) was designed as a free trade area. No joined legislation set by a single parliament and no single currency, which in the past allowed nations to weather economic strife through their own banking systems. ......All that sounds a bit anti-EU but it was just to paint a picture of how toilet all of Europe is, including the UK. You've pretty much nailed the issues there. Indeed the problem has always been that the UK elected to join the EEC and I'd suggest that most people would be quite happy remaining members of the EEC. Trouble is that does not exist any more and so we are where we are. Looked at one way, May's deal could be said to be an attempt to roll the clock back to 1975 and re-invent the EEC - free trade, no freedom of movement. Trouble is, everyone else has moved on from there. There's too much additional baggage. You are quite right that the UK has also made a mugs game of implementing directives and so on. That's our history again. But that is also the nub of the same issue. If each country can't even implement a directive the same way, how the heck can they expect to part of the same fiscal union, let alone political union? They could just about cope with being a free trade area. In fact, I think the solution is that everybody should leave the EU and rejoin EFTA. There, that's it all solved then. If only.....
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2018 17:18:25 GMT
I see the eu just as fractured as we are, frankly none of them are worth a carrot. The problem has always been that Germany has always benefitted from the existence of the EU as it collectively makes their stonking output affordable to the rest of the world through a shared currency with a falsely low value (for Germany - falsely high for Greece, Spain, Italy....etc) and the rest of the EU has always simply ignored the rules as they are supposed to be implemented. EU directives are designed to guide local (ie individual nation) legislation and so long as the legislation captures the essence of the directive the local law is OK. We've been dreadful mugs for decades and implemented directives to the letter thus making our own laws look like shite. There are various other cultural issues and the fact that the UK has some legislation and case law that is far older than anything the EU has to offer but which can be overridden by the ECJ, a huge history of doing international business with the rest of the world, a huge history of controlling the rest of the world and therefore ours and their trade partnerships (something the EU states always hated before there was an EU) and a long term history of warring with the rest of Europe. The EU and its forebears (as has oft been said by Bob on here and others elsewhere) was designed as a free trade area. No joined legislation set by a single parliament and no single currency, which in the past allowed nations to weather economic strife through their own banking systems. The CE standards body was always a good idea (apart from preventing me importing my Kushitani leathers this year!) but the freedom of movement AND entitlement to the benefits system of any member state that you chose to live in was not. This is an area that, again, the UK has been shite at managing. The reason there are hordes of migrants on the beaches in France waiting for the next piece of driftwood to float past that they can hop on and get to Kent on is because we have not managed the benefits and employment system as the rest of Europe has done. In France you can't get a Polish builder to come and fit your toilet suite (and France is worse for it as the local supply chain is often a lazy bunch of entitled sons of artisans and grandsons of artisans that are now in the media, lawyers or work 4 hours a day maximum) so to the onlooker it seems that there is actually only true free movement to work in the EU in the UK when in actuality its our application of employment legislation that allows this (Polish builders can work in France but have to do all the correct registrations that French ones have to do and pay all the employment related taxes that goes with it). The EU is fractured but they don't have that UK history of proper independence because although we live under a 1,000+ year monarchy we have spent much of it as independents whereas Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, France, Germany, etc etc haven't had that long history of being biggest dog in their own house. All that sounds a bit anti-EU but it was just to paint a picture of how toilet all of Europe is, including the UK. Thanks for that, clears up a lot.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2018 20:49:40 GMT
Corbyn as PM and hard brexit so you Can’t leave the country when everything gets even more messed up by a loopy socialist government. We really are fucktards. That sets out my feelings perfectly. We had a large family get together last night and it turned into a bit of a political rant when some of the younger members of the family said that they thought we should give Jeremy Corbyn a go because he couldn't do any worse that the current Government - cue tales of the 70's to some rather shocked faces that they might have no electricity after 6pm and that would include the internet and TV, bins might not get collected, trains might not run, schools might be shut and if you are lucky enough to pay tax at higher rates, be ready for that to increase to 60% with a nice 15% cherry on top if you have any dividend or savings income. Dunno why the anti-Corbynist worry .There's a powerful hate -spreading right-wing gutter press to make sure he doesn't get in
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Post by michael on Dec 12, 2018 21:07:01 GMT
Such as ?
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Post by Alex on Dec 12, 2018 22:38:12 GMT
Well May won and Rees-Mogg is left looking like the self serving idiot he is. I think she will now find a way to get the deal through but it’ll be so unpopular, especially with the DUP that a GE in 2019 is inevitable. I predict another hung parliament but how any party will be able to form a coalition is anybody’s guess.
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Post by michael on Dec 12, 2018 23:14:40 GMT
I think a snap election is increasingly unlikely.
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Post by PG on Dec 13, 2018 8:31:36 GMT
I have no real idea any more how her winning yesterday changes anything. She still can't get her deal through Parliament.
Yes, she will get some form of nice, cuddly words off the EU no doubt, but I don't think that will change anything.
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Post by Martin on Dec 13, 2018 9:15:43 GMT
I have no real idea any more how her winning yesterday changes anything. She still can't get her deal through Parliament. Yes, she will get some form of nice, cuddly words off the EU no doubt, but I don't think that will change anything. It does remove a distracting sideshow, but the only positive at the moment is that Corbyn isn’t in charge.
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Post by racingteatray on Dec 13, 2018 14:22:34 GMT
I see the eu just as fractured as we are, frankly none of them are worth a carrot. [.....] All that sounds a bit anti-EU but it was just to paint a picture of how toilet all of Europe is, including the UK. Well the primary issue with Brexit is that it has always felt like jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire.
No one really disputes that we are in something of a frying pan (albeit not at any imminent risk of cooking to death), but the apparently keen desire to risk leaping into the fire is perplexing. Of course JRM and friends aver that we shall somehow vault effortlessly over the flames to land safely on the welcoming hearth rug without so much as a scorch mark, but they've never actually been able to satisfactorily explain how.
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